Sizing Up LSU, Post-Mathieu

Mathieu let down a lot of people, but most importantly, himself

Today, LSU notified the college football world that they had kicked star cornerback, Tyrann Mathieu, off the team. This is a huge blow to the Tigers as Mathieu was one of the best players in the country last year, making it to New York as a Heisman finalist. LSU was supposed to challenge for the National Championship again, ranked #1 in the preseason USA Today Coaches' poll. It's pretty clear now that the expectations will have to be brought very much in check.

Before the Mathieu news, LSU looked like a leading contender for the National Championship. They host Alabama at home this year, and their out of conference schedule is laughable (as most SEC OOC schedules are). Without Mathieu, the winning probabilities have definitely changed. While LSU might still be favorites in every game besides the aforementioned tilt against the Crimson Tide, they aren't as big a favorites as they were before. Let's walk through the schedule:

North Texas - Like most SEC teams, LSU's out of conference schedule is kind of a joke. The Mean Green should not be a threat to LSU regardless of who is playing. LSU losing this game would be as shocking as Michigan losing to Appalachian State.
Pre-Mathieu: 99%
Post-Mathieu: 99%

Washington - Washington is a mid-level Pac-12 team. They might continue to improve, especially since their recruiting is getting better with Super Recruiter, Tosh Lupoi, aboard. They should, however, not provide much of a challenge to a Mathieu-less Tigers.
Pre-Mathieu: 90%
Post-Mathieu: 85%

Idaho - I'm not sure how much LSU is paying Idaho to visit Baton Rouge, but this should be an easy win. The Vandals were the worst team in the WAC last season, and there really shouldn't be an expectation for them to put up much of a fight against the National Runner-Ups.
Pre-Mathieu: 99%
Post-Mathieu: 99%

@Auburn - Auburn did not have a great 2011, after losing Cam Newton and Nick Fairley to the draft. These Tigers finished 8-4 last season and they still have issues at the QB position. The main advantage that Auburn will have is that this game will take place at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Often times last season, LSU looked laggy away from Death Valley, and it was a big play by Mathieu that gave them the emotional lift to rise above. That little extra that LSU might need, that's gone. LSU will still be the favorites, but not as big as they would have been before.
Pre-Mathieu: 80%
Post-Mathieu: 60%

Towson - The last out of conference game on LSU's schedule, and this is another cupcake. Really not much more that needs to be said.
Pre-Mathieu: 99%
Post Mathieu: 99%

@Florida - Florida really has not been the same offensively since Tim Tebow went to the draft. While they continue to stock pile talent, they are getting about as much use out of the talent as Notre Dame. There still is no answer at the quarterback position. At the same time, their defense remained one of the best in the country. Last year, Florida was 8th in total defense, and and 20th in the country in scoring defense. With both teams struggling offensively, this could be another SEC scissorfest. Again, like against Auburn, not having the emotional lift that a Mathieu can provide should hurt LSU.
Pre-Mathieu: 75%
Post Mathieu: 60%

South Carolina - The Gamecocks had one of the best defenses in the country and they retain star defensive end, Jadeveon Clowney. They were 3rd in total defense and 11th in scoring defense. The problem for South Carolina, like with most SEC teams, is that the offense struggled due to poor quarterback play. On offense, they return Marcus Lattimore and have an emerging quarterback in Connor Shaw. They don't have to worry about the inconsistencies of Stephen Garcia anymore. This could be a close game. It could be a tough game for LSU if this falls on the offense.
Pre-Mathieu: 75%
Post-Mathieu: 65%

@Texas A&M - The Aggies are hard to gauge because we don't know how Kevin Sumlin's offense is going to translate to the defense heavy SEC. A&M also loses quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, but having a clean slate might be for the best with the new system. Furthermore, Kyle Field is notoriously one of the toughest places to play in college football and prides itself on the 11th man. A&M had a top offense last season that return Ryan Swope but will need someone to emerge at the quarterback spot. LSU should be able to handle a young quarterback.
Pre-Mathieu: 90%
Post-Mathieu: 85%

Alabama - Before Mathieu got kicked off the team, this would have been once again one of the most hyped games of the season. Despite LSU failure in last year's championship game, they return a lot of players and were supposed to be as strong. Without their star playmaker, that is probably not the case. Bama doesn't rebuild, they reload. They're just as strong as last season and should be one of the favorites for the national championship. Before this game, it might have been a coin flip situation with a slight edge to Alabama. Now, you have to say that Alabama should be a big favorite.
Pre-Mathieu: 45%
Post-Mathieu: 20%

Mississippi St - This is a game LSU should win. Mississippi State is not a good SEC team and they have to go to Death Valley to face LSU. There really shouldn't be much change.
Pre-Mathieu: 90%
Post-Mathieu: 85%

Ole Miss - Ole Miss is the worst team in the conference, save Kentucky but that doesn't really count. LSU should easily take care of business against the Rebels.
Pre-Mathieu: 95%
Post-Mathieu: 92.5%

@Arkansas - Last year's tilt at Death Valley was close for three quarters before LSU pulled away. While the Razorbacks lost their top receivers, they return one of the SEC's best quarterbacks in Tyler Wilson. They also have the tank, Knile Davis, at running back. The defense was not good, but even if it improves a little bit, it could be huge for the Razorbacks. I expect that the coaching change from Petrino to John L Smith should have a minimal effect. This game is in Fayetteville and Arkansas should be the favorite.
Pre-Mathieu: 55%
Post-Mathieu: 40%

Pre-Mathieu Expected Wins: 9.92 wins
Post-Mathieu Expected Wins: 9.095

So basically in this completely non-scientific method of trying to find LSU's win expectancy, Mathieu is worth a game. There's no game that LSU couldn't win before and can't win now, but the odds of each game has changed. LSU could still go undefeated, but that seems unlikely. They were a 10-12 win team before, so it makes sense that they would be a 9-11 win team now. They have a tough schedule and games that might have been blowouts before could be close now. It's up to Les Miles to make it not a factor.