Picture Play: The Fourth Down Option

The play above is one of the moments in The Game that really bothered me. It looked like the triple option that Oregon runs, but it didn't have the inside zone read (i.e. tradition speed double option). The idea of this play is to go to the outside and to option off a defender. This depends on what the defender does. If he commits to stopping the quarterback, he pitches to the running back. If the defender commits to the pitch, the quarterback takes off up field.

When Hoke talks about poor execution, this is the type of play that he's talking about.

Let's start by looking at the start of the formation:

Denard is in the shotgun with a two backs in the backfield, two tight ends and a receiver left.

Simulataneous with the snap, Smith motions behind Denard and to the left. The play is going to the left, and it's pretty clear that it's going to be an option left. The next picture is where we begin to see the breakdown in execution.

You'll see that Denard runs inside the tackles rather than running the option. Had he ran outside, he would've optioned off #4 CJ Barnett. With the WR blocking one on one with the corner, you would have liked your chances of getting the first down there. Instead, Denard does what he usually does, which is improvise. You let Denard do these kind of things because he often turns these things into big plays.

This also looks like it could be a big play. Hopkins is ahead of Denard on the left and Omameh is pulling from the right. Michigan has Lewan and AJ Williams ahead, and if all the blocks are executed right, Denard could have been sprung.

Hopkins whiffs on the block, forcing Etienne Sabino to the inside and Omameh doesn't even bother to meet him. Meanwhile, down the field, Ryan Shazier is getting off Lewan's block.

Both Sabino and Shazier funnel to Denard and stop him dead for a two yard loss. While Ohio State did well to stop Michigan, it all came down to poor execution:

• Denard should not have improvised. Had he run to the outside, Michigan is most likely looking at a new set of downs. By running where the defenders are, he put the fate of the play in his offensive linemen's hands. There is a reason why this play has stood the test of time: it works. Denard didn't run the play properly.
• The blocking failed on all levels. Hopkins whifed on Sabino, letting Sabino get past him. Omameh missed a pancake opportunity on Sabino that could've possibly sprung Denard to the next level. Lewan let Shazier get off his block, allowing the All-Big Ten linebacker to deliver the death blow to the play.

Re-looking at a play like this where I knew there was poor execution when I saw it live makes me want to look at more plays and see if there was a similar breakdown in execution. I raked Borges over the coals yesterday, but perhaps I didn't criticize the players enough besides the turnovers. If you're given an assignment on a play, it is your responsibility to do execute it. Michigan didn't. It made a difference in the final score.

The Great Disappointment

This has got to be one of the most frustrating seasons I've ever watched. Even that first Rich Rod season, you realized early on that that team wasn't very good. This team, even after the Alabama game, where the Tide were the much better team going in, I thought that Michigan had the chance to have a very successful season.

It was the little things that made the difference. I want so bad to call this season "unlucky," but I can't. A habitual penchant for making mistakes isn't unlucky. It is poor execution, and it is poor coaching. We turned the ball over 16 times in the four losses. That is just unacceptable. Yet, through all of this poor play, we managed to be within a touchdown against Notre Dame, the number one team in the country. We managed to be within a touchdown of undefeated Ohio State. We were within 1-point of Nebraska and deep in Big Red territory when Denard went down. This team was still so close to being an 11 win team.

That is the most frustrating part, isn't it? That first Rodriguez year was frustrating because it was un-Michigan-like. We have a program built on excellence and tradition. However, we were quick to realize how terrible that team was and how far below our standards it was. The team wasn't losing close games every week. They weren't competing at all. Period. This team competed their butts off. The defense kept us in the games, and the offense needed to score a bit more to put it games away. It just didn't happen.

This was supposed to be our year. It should have been our year. With Ohio State and Penn State facing sanctions, the Leaders Division cubbard was dry. It's still dry, unless you believe in Wisconsin's "let's run Power-O every single play on the 1 even though our opponent knows we're going to run Power-O from the 1" offense. Sparty was due for a down year after Cousins and Worthy went to the NFL. A similar story was brewing in Lincoln with Crick, Dennard, and David all gone. The potential for a big season was there.

There are many questions that come with a disappointing season. Who is to blame? What could we have done differently? Usually, these things involve a lot of hindsight, but I'm pretty sure the main core problems were noted before the season and before games.

Obviously, one of the major talking points has been Gardner's move from QB to WR. "Bellomy's failure there shows that he should have never been moved" blah blah blah. The bottom line is that we had depth issues at both positions. This is on Rodriguez. You shouldn't be down to only 3 scholarship quarterbacks to begin with. Additionally, with the youth (Funchess) and lack of size (Roundtree and Gallon), our wide receiving core was less than impressive. The coaches wanted to get our second best play maker on the field? That's preposterous.

If the coaches knew that injuries were going to work out the way they did, they probably would have put Gardner at quarterback sooner. It's easy to say that. As I said before, bringing in a redshirt freshman at quarterback in as hostile an environment like Memorial Stadium is not something you really plan for. It's easy to second guess the coaches on this, and I don't think it's worth hashing.

The fundamental problem with starting a quarterback like Denard, when the rest of your quarterbacks are more pro-style, is that you can't game plan for your backups as effectively as you can. You're not going to spend as much time preparing your backups as much as you prepare your starters. Otherwise, the starters wouldn't be as prepared as they should be. Thus, when you bring in a kid like Bellomy in a game you weren't expecting to bring him in, you see a scaled down playbook with more predictable play calling. The Blacksharks smelled blood, and they blitzed and blitzed and blitzed.

The other big hindsight call from the fans is that Denard should have been moved to RB/WR sooner, not just after he was unable to throw. The problem there again is that there were depth issues. Moving Denard to RB/WR would be a more permanent decision, because he is a Senior and because they would be running a different offense if they tried to move him back. They would have had to fit a square peg in a round hole mid-season. There is also the fact that Denard is the face of Michigan football and moving him would be met with cries of outrage. The guy did some incredible things at Michigan, almost all of it playing quarterback. Putting the ball in your best playmaker's hands every single offensive play makes too much sense not to do it.

Another big problem our running backs were so bad. Fitzgerald Toussaint was mediocre all season long, forcing Michigan to run it with Denard more than the coaches probably wanted. None of the backups really stepped up either. Giving Denard more attempts probably contributed to him taking more shots and eventually to his injury. Had our running game been as effective as it had been at the end of last season, this might not have been a talking point. It is football though. It's a physical sport, and injuries happen.

Besides unexpected injuries, you don't really know what you have on the field until you see them in action. The coaches must have felt confident in Bellomy and thought moving Gardner to wide receiver would significantly improve that position. While Roundtree and Gallon looked great at the end of the season, I don't think you can really argue against the fact that Gardner was one of if not the best receiver on the team early in the season, averaging 16.6 yards per reception. Furthermore, the small sample size we saw of Gardner at QB last year wasn't impressive. The coaches must have liked what they saw from Bellomy, who was the most impressive quarterback during the Spring Game, enough to make him second string QB.

In the end, there were too many conflicting ideas that prevented the best use of all personnel at all times.  You can attribute it to depth, you can attribute it to transition, but the bottom line is it held us back. When you couple it with some unexpected events, you're looking at a team significantly underperforming its talent level.

Then, there is Al Borges. Where do I start without devolving into an expletive ridden rant? For me, offensive play calling is very simple. You want to use your most effective plays to move the ball and to score points. I don't see the need to do trick plays and cute things like that when you're moving the ball effectively. Do what you do best. Al Borges, time and time again, has shown me very little in terms of his play calling in big games.

In the two years that he has been the offensive coordinator, Michigan has played in 10 big games. I really think that he's had good games in may be 2.25 games:

The fourth quarter against Notre Dame, where it was mostly jump balls anyway.
The Nebraska game last year.
The Ohio State game last year.

In the other 7.75 games, he hasn't been bad, he has been terrible. In the Michigan State game last year, Borges continuously tried to employ the deuce formation, using both Robinson and Gardner. I appreciate showing new looks, but whenever Gardner was under center, he was handing off to Robinson. There was little to no misdirection. There were no wrinkles. It was too predictable. If you're going to do that, why not just run a zone read/inverted veer type play. Why show a new look formation if you're not going to take advantage of it? It was a similar story in the Iowa game that we lost.

After great games against Nebraska and Ohio State, the offense devolved into jump ball to Junior Hemmingway against Virginia Tech. May be Borges struggled with Bud Foster's 4-4 defense, but he had several weeks to prepare. The Hokies held us to under 200 yards after we put up at least 40 points in our final two games. The inability to move the ball in that game just showed a lack of preparation from view. I say that knowing that Virginia Tech has historically had a good defense. It is hard to believe that the offense could be so ineffective after having so many weeks to prepare for a defense.

That was my first season watching Borges. As a result, I came into this season skeptical but hopeful that he would change my opinion of him.

I don't think you can really fault him for the Alabama game. I did want him to run the ball more and to take the pressure off of the defense that was continuously overpowered. However, I'm not sure how much of a difference it would have made. Alabama looked like they could score at will. They were bigger, stronger, and more powerful. Borges seemed to call the game with the rest of the season in mind. He did not want to put Denard Robinson at risk.

Notre Dame was different though. Even with the turnovers, Michigan outgained Notre Dame by 60 yards. Michigan was moving the ball at a decent clip. However, when Michigan entered the redzone, Borges struck with his finest effort in derpitude. Rather than letting Denard's legs carry us to the endzone, Borges decided that the Wolverines should try a half back pass with Vincent Smith. Smith was pressured and threw an interception. The first half was an abortion with all of the turnovers, but it was clear Borges didn't have confidence in the offense after halftime, only allowing it to operate with the parking brake. Notre Dame was a game that the Wolverines should have won. We did not.

Against Ohio State, Michigan had a great first half. Devin Gardner looked effective as did Denard Robinson in a pure running capacity. In the second half, we started inexplicably wasting downs running ineffective plays running up the middle. I don't know how much of this is on Borges as Hoke is trying to take some of the blame. It was quite evident that Michigan was struggling to run up the middle, but continued to do so. Ohio State kept stopping them and forcing turnovers on these type of plays.

Michigan was more effective running to the outside, but continued to keep it between the tackles. Furthermore, we saw less of Denard and Devin in together. Hoke is covering up for that too. It's a shame because Gardner's arm put us in many short yardage situations from which Michigan should have moved the chains. In the midst of all these inside runs, I was left dumbfounded by the lack of play action bootlegs, a play that has been so effective these last few weeks. Borges refused to call Michigan's most effective play with Gardner at QB. Coupled with the ineffective plays that he was calling, and Michigan could not move the chains.

It's a shame because the other side of the ball has been so good this year. If I lack confidence in Borges, I am the complete opposite with Mattison. This Michigan defense doesn't have the most talent, but Mattison gets the most out of them. He designs plays so that the team can make the play, rather than the individual. A great example of this is the slants in short yardage, which Brian from MGoBlog diagrammed. Michigan uses its linemen to occupy and disrupt the blocking so that the linebackers can flow to the ball. I'm not sure how innovative this is, but it is extremely effective. I think much of the effectiveness has to be credited to the coaching, to Mattison, Montgomery, and co.

Under Rodriguez, the defense was hardly existant. It was 108th in the country, allowing 454.8 yards per game. Last year, Michigan's defense allowed 322.2 yards per game, which was good for 16th in the country. This season, Michigan is 13th, allowing only 311.2 yards per game. The turnaround has been nothing short of a miracle. Much of this, by the way, has been with the same personnel. This new coaching staff did not recruit Quinton Washington, Craig Roh, or the mighty Jake Ryan. They have taken those guys and given them a chance to succeed though. We've seen what this coaching staff can get out of its players if they can get some time with them.

We have also seen glimpses of what the defense will look like next year and the talent that will translate. Jake Ryan will no doubt be the leader of the defense next season, following his break out season this year. Michigan will also get its best defensive back back from injury, Blake Countess. We've seen some of the freshmen like Ondre Pipkins, James Ross, and Joe Bolden that should be able to contribute. WIth recruiting, the defense is getting more athletic. With players spending more time in Mattison's system, they are better coached and more well-suited to take on college offenses. Michigan should have another great defense next year.

Speaking of next year, the schedule looks much easier. Michigan gets Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio State, the three teams they lost to this season, all at home. While they face trips to Happy Valley and East Lansing, the best teams that they face should be at home. If there are high expectations next year, it shouldn't just be because of the players, but also a much more favorable schedule. It isn't outlandish to say that Michigan could go undefeated next year.

Much of Michigan's fate next year will once again fall on the offense. Can Al Borges get the most out of them? Who will step up around Devin Gardner? Which freshmen will make an impact? How will the offensive line look, especially considering they might lose every starter?

I think Borges can get the most out of them if he is running one system. With Denard graduating, he doesn't have to implement spread concepts over his more preferred "Gulf-Coast" offense. We'll run plays from under center. We'll get Gardner out of the pocket when we need to. We'll recruit bigger wide receivers and tight ends to be viable targets. The burden once again will fall on his play calling.

With Roy Roundtree graduating, Gardner might not have a lot around him. Jeremy Gallon will definitely be a go to guy, but he is far from an ideal sized wide receiver under the new coaches. Devin Funchess should continue to improve as he adds mass and adjusts to the college game. Then, who else? I don't think we can count on Toussaint being ready for next season, nor am I sold on Rawls's or Hayes's ability to step up. Both Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson could figure greatly into the plans in their second year of the system, but receiver is going to still be an issue. Will Butt and Hill make an impact at TE? Will Michigan be able to land a Derrick Green or a Laquon Treadwell to give them an impact freshman on offense? We won't know until signing day.

What we do know is that we will have a bowl game. It's not the one we wanted. It's not the one we saw us going to. We'll face another good team too. It'll be exciting, and hopefully, we can win. Hopefully we can continue to build. My disappointment with this season is purely results based, but I've been happy with the progress. Hopefully, the results can match the progress.

Sizing up the other 5 conferences

There's no secret that I know the Big Ten better than every other conference, so I won't be able to go into detail as much with these other conference. I did follow the same format as before, coming up with a rubric and assigning win probabilities for each game. With regards to the probabilities, I believe that I put more of an emphasis on where I believe these teams will finish in their conference rather than looking more closely at the match ups. This has mostly to do with a lack of familiarity with some of these teams. In the Pac-12 in particular, there is a lot of uncertainty with new coaches at Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA, and Washington State, and the departures of key players like Andrew Luck, LaMichael James, and Darron Thomas. Every conference has some issues. These are just instate expected wins by the way.

Atlantic Division:
Clemson - 5.55
Florida State - 5.2
Wake Forest - 4.4
NC State - 4
Maryland - 2.8
BC - 2.05

As EDSBS would explain, picking Clemson to do anything good is just about the worst thing you can do in college football. Clemson failing is the most Clemson thing ever. However, Florida State is also a perennial disappointment. Every year, people praise their incredible talent and have them as preseason national champions, but they always flounder their way into a Russell Athletic Bowl. This is another year where Florida State is a preseason pick for national champion, but I have Clemson edging them for the title, despite having Florida State as a slight favorite in their head to head clash. The rest of the division isn't really a factor, but I have Maryland finishing above BC because the Eagles are terrible and Maryland has some top freshmen talent coming in.

Coastal Division:
Virginia Tech - 5.75
Georgia Tech - 5.2
Virginia - 4.4
Miami - 4.2
UNC - 2.65
Duke - 1.8

Virginia Tech loses David Wilson, but have Logan Thomas for another season. Besides Denard Robinson and Matt Barkley, Logan Thomas is the quarterback that I am most interested in seeing this year. Everyone knows that Virginia Tech will have a great defense, and that is what will carry them to winning that division. The big question is whether they can win the conference and whether they can defeat Clemson, who beat them twice last season. Beyond that, Georgia Tech is due for another solid season, and Miami will continue to spiral a bit amidst their booster scandal. UNC and Duke will be UNC and Duke.

SEC East:
Georgia - 5.8
South Carolina - 4.85
Florida - 4.3
Missouri - 3.95
Vanderbilt - 3.6
Tennessee - 2.85
Kentucky - 2

Georgia is once against the cream of the SEC East and the only team with a real quarterback in this division. It should be another season of beating a relatively easy schedule before getting stomped in the SEC title game. South Carolina should be better now that they have escaped Stephen Garcia's reign of terror, and they have one of the best defensive linemen in the country in Jadeveon Clowney. Florida will still struggle without having a definitive answer at quarterback. Missouri will surprise this season, propelled by true freshman, Dorial Green-Beckham. I believe that DGB will have a Sammy Watkins type effect on Mizzou. Tennessee and Kentucky will continue to be Tennessee and Kentucky.

SEC West:
Alabama - 6.55
Arkansas - 5.65
LSU - 5.5
Auburn - 3.7
Texas A&M - 3.1
Mississippi State - 3.1
Mississippi - 1.45

This is the toughest division in all of college football and is loaded at the top. With the Honey Badger no longer at LSU, the Crimson Tide get a firm grasp on the top spot, and Arkansas edges LSU. That will be a very close match up and whoever comes in second could very well be determined by that Thanksgiving Friday game. I have Arkansas edging LSU because of quarterback play, as I have Tyler Wilson as the top rated quarterback in the SEC. I don't think that the Razorbacks can compete with Alabama on the defensive and offensive fronts though. A&M will do okay against a tough schedule, but it will take them a while to adjust to the SEC. Ole Miss is still terrible.

Pac-12 North:
Oregon - 7.2
Stanford - 6.35
Washington - 4.9
California - 3.95
Washington State - 3.4
Oregon State - 2.8

Oregon will once again be the cream of the crop in the Pac-12 North. They return one of the most exciting players in the game with D'Anthony Thomas. While they lose a couple of key players in Darron Thomas and LaMichael James, Chip Kelly will have his boys at the top. Stanford loses Andrew Luck among a few other key players, but they return strong in the trenches. Stanford might be the best coached team in the conference, and they will continue to be a strong team. Washington's recruiting has taken a turn for the best under Tosh Lupoi, and I expect the Huskies to benefit. The big question for the North is how Washington State is going to do under Mike Leach. I'm not sure how much progress he is going to make in his first season.

Pac-12 South:
USC - 7.25
Arizona State - 4.6
Utah - 4.4
UCLA - 4
Arizona - 3.05
Colorado - 2.1

USC is a popular choice for the national championship and for good reason. They have loads of talent on the offensive side of the ball. It isn't even a question of whether they will win the Pac-12 South, but more if they will win the Pac-12 South with a chance at getting into the National Championship. Matt Barkley and Robert Woods will have to do work for that to happen. The rest of the conference has a lot of question marks. Arizona State, UCLA, and Arizona all have new coaches. It will be interesting to see which of those coaches will get their team to second in the division.

Big XII:
Oklahoma - 6.45
West Virginia - 5.85
Oklahoma State - 5.7
Kansas State - 5.15
Texas - 4.75
TCU - 4.45
Baylor - 4.2
Iowa State - 3.7
Texas Tech - 3.1
Kansas - 1.65

Oklahoma is the favorite to win this and they have something to prove. With Mike Stoops back in the coaching staff, they should have a better defense. Landry Jones returns for his senior year and has to prove himself if he wants to be one of the top draft picks in the 2013 NFL Draft. West Virginia really is a wild card in their first season. They lost defensive coordinator, Jeff Casteel, but they return an offense that dropped 70 on Clemson in the Orange Bowl. The Big XII isn't exactly known for their defense and the Mountaineers should be able to exploit that. Oklahoma State loses some key players, so I have them falling to third, but just barely. Kansas State has a great quarterback in Colin Klein, but they're still Kansas State. They are a dark horse to win the conference, but that's because they're Kansas State. Texas will continue to struggle as long as they struggle to fill the quarterback spot. David Ash? Case McCoy? Get it done. I think that TCU will do better than expected because they do put an emphasis on defense. They'll struggle because of youth. Baylor lost RG3, Terrance Ganaway, and Kendall Wright. They'll be decent, but they won't be as good as last year. Kansas hired Charlie Weis. That's all that needs to be said.

Do we have to?

Big East:
Louisville - 4.7
Temple - 4.45
Cincinnati - 4.3
Pittsburgh - 4.25
Connecticut - 4.05
Rutgers - 2.95
Syracuse - 2.45
South Florida - 1.85

The Big East will be tight again, but in a bad way. No one will stand out, leading us to question once against WHY DOES THE BIG EAST HAVE AN AUTOMATIC BCS BERTH? I have Louisville because of Charlie Strong. It'll be interesting to see how Temple does in their first season in the Big East. They lost their offensive coordinator, Scot Loeffler, to Auburn. Can they sustain their momentum?

Sizing Up The Big Ten

When I look at teams within a conference, I usually gauge them by how many conference wins they are going to have. The problem is that you can't really figure out how a team is going to win until you make a full conference schedule rubric. That is what I did for the Big Ten, and what I will try to do for the rest of the conferences, or at least the ones that matter.

The Process: Basically, I went through each game and assigned a probability that the home team wins. This probability, or 1 minus this probability for the away team, is summed up to get the expected wins. The probabilities for the games were assigned by looking at games from previous years, factoring in player attrition, as well as where the game is played. I wanted to use as much of the available information possible to gauge how many teams each team in the Big Ten would win.

Illinois
Summary: Illinois had a pretty impressive start to last season, winning their first seven games of the season. Nathan Scheelhaase looked like the next Juice Williams. Everything was going right until everything went wrong. The Illini were killed in their last 6 games, even losing to lowly Minnesota. The collapse cost coach Ron Zook his job. Furthermore, Illinois loses key players like Whitney Mercilus and AJ Jenkins. They will be a different team in 2012, and Todd Graham seems to have brought a new energy to the program. The question is whether they can build off of last year or whether they will have to rebuild.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 2-6
Expected Wins: 3.65

Indiana
Summary: Indiana was the worst team in the Big Ten last year, and not much should change. They struggled to find a quarterback to lead them, but by the end of the season, freshman Tre Roberson showed that he was worth of the position. Despite the lack of talent around him, Roberson could be one of the more exciting players in the Big Ten. Don't expect them to be a much better team than last year though.
Upside: 0-8
Downside: 0-8
Expected Wins: 1.10

Iowa
Summary: After defeating Michigan last season, Iowa controlled their own destiny as far as winning the Legends Division of the Big Ten. They ultimately squandered that opportunity dropping games to Michigan State and Nebraska. That is not to mention their unforgivable loss at Minnesota. The offseason presented Angry Iowa Running Back Hating God (AIRBHG) more chances to smite the Hawkeyes. Leading rusher Marcus Coker, who was supposed to be the mainstay of the offense, transferred to Stony Brook following an allegation of sexual assault. Back up Barkley Hill tore his ACL. Sophomore Damon Bullock and Freshman Greg Garmon will have to step up for Iowa to have any chance this year. Regardless, like any Kirk Ferentz team, Iowa should be solid again.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 2-6
Expected Wins: 4.00

Michigan
Summary: In Brady Hoke's first season, Michigan marched their way to a BCS victory over Virginia Tech. Although Hoke will say he was disappointed that Michigan did not win the Big Ten, it is hard to say that his first season was anything but an overwhelming success. Hoke has changed the culture at Michigan and raised the bar of expectation. With Denard Robinson commanding the offense for his second year under Al Borges's offense, Michigan should see a dramatic improvement in the offense due to Robinson's increased comfort. The Wolverines lose key guys on both sides of the line, but what is left seems to be overlooked by the national media. Michigan is the favorite in the Legends Division for good reason.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 5-3
Expected Wins: 5.95

Michigan State
Summary: The reigning Legends Division champions have lost a lot from last year's team with players like Kirk Cousins, BJ Cunningham, Keshawn Martin, and Jerel Worthy. Despite this, the Spartans should still be one of the contenders for the Legends Division as they bring back a strong linebacking core and defensive secondary. Andrew Maxwell will be asked for a lot in his first season as a starter, but his load will be lightened by running back LeVeon Bell and a strong offensive line. There are still a lot of questions to be answered and a visit by Ohio State and visits to arch-rival Michigan and Wisconsin will not make things any easier. It will take another great coaching job by Mark Dantonio for Sparty to get back to Indianapolis.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 4-4
Expected Wins: 5.60

Minnesota
Summary: Despite being horrible last season, the Gophers managed to win two Big Ten games over Iowa and Illinois. MarQueis Gray will again be asked to do a lot, which won't be easy. Jerry Kill's job may be on the line, and Minnesota would be wise to take care of business at home. It will be the road, however, that will continue to be the overwhelming challenge. The team should be better than last year, but that's not saying much.
Upside: 2-6
Downside: 0-8
Expected Wins: 1.4


Nebraska
Summary: Bo Pelini and his Nebraska Cornhuskers did not exactly enjoy their first season in the Big Ten. They were expected to cruise to the Big Ten title but were thumped in visits to Michigan and Wisconsin and dropped a shocker to Northwestern at home. While they get Michigan and Wisconsin at home this season, it is unlikely that much has changed from last year in those games. Furthermore, trips to East Lansing and Columbus promise to test the Cornhuskers title credentials. Of course, much of the load will be entrusted to the backfield duo of Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead. Burkhead should have another solid year, potentially entering the Heisman discussion if Nebraska can put together some big wins. Martinez continues to be a worry due to his poor passing. Nebraska also loses some key players on defense including Jared Crick, Lavonte David and Alfonzo Dennard. Signs point to another tough year in Lincoln.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 3-5
Expected Wins: 4.60

Northwestern
Summary: Northwestern loses senior leaders in quarterback Dan Persa and wide receiver Jeremy Ebert, but they have a potential big time quarterback in Kain Colter and picked up a big time receiver in Kyle Prater, who transferred from USC. They also have a decent running back in Mike Trumpy, who is coming off a knee injury. Northwestern is never the most talented team, but Pat Fitzgerald always get this team to play tough, hard-nosed football. The Wildcats have plenty of winnable games in the conference beyond the trips to Ann Arbor and East Lansing. Game to game, Northwestern is the most unpredictable team in the Big Ten.
Upside: 6-2
Downside: 1-7
Expected Wins: 3.75

Ohio State
Summary: With Urban Meyer taking over the reins, Ohio State fans should expect a drastic change from the days of Tresselball. While Tressel had some great athletes playing quarterback like Troy Smith and Terrelle Pryor, he never got the most out of their legs. Expect Braxton Miller to thrive in Urban Meyer's spread offense. There will be some problems on offense with two of the top offensive linemen gone as well as the starting running back and top wide receiver. The Buckeyes will have to replace these weapons. Defensively, they should be faster and expect a freshman or two to make an impact. I don't expect Ohio State to be fully what Urban Meyer wants out of his team until year 2 or 3, but this team will be one of the best in the Big Ten, despite the bowl ban. This season should allow Meyer to build to the future.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 4-4
Expected Wins: 5.25

Penn State
Summary: Penn State is another tough team to predict in light of the Sandusky scandal. The Nittany Lions have lost many key players including Silas Redd, the star running back. While I expect Bill O'Brien to get improved out of Matt McGloin, that should not come close to offsetting the loss of Redd. Penn State will continue to be tough, but they will not be Joe Paterno's Penn State. They remind me a lot of the 2007 Michigan team that was stripped of much of its talent, following a coaching and system transition. There is a lot of downside to this team, and it's hard to know what will be seen as a successful season.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 1-7
Expected Wins: 3.55

Purdue
Summary: Purdue is, for many people, the sleeper in the Leaders Division. With Ohio State and Penn State ineligible for the Big Ten Championship game, a lot of people believe that Purdue might have a chance of sneaking past Wisconsin into that game. Purdue was decent last year, finishing 4-4 and above that miserable Ohio State team that the Boilermakers beat in West Lafayette. Ralph Bolden and Caleb TerBush will have to have big seasons for Purdue to even come close to the title game. Luckily, they have their two toughest opponents, Michigan and Wisconsin, at home. The defense should be amongst the best in the Big Ten with Kawann Short leading the line and Ricardo Allen leading the secondary. This is Danny Hope's best team since taking over.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 1-7
Expected Wins: 3.35

Wisconsin
Summary: The defending Big Ten champions come into the season with the expectation of repeating. They return Montee Ball, who was perhaps the most overlooked player in the Heisman race last season. They once again have a graduate transfer quarterback in Danny O'Brien. They should also have a ton of big guys on the lines as well. Wisconsin should cruise to the Big Ten title game, but I'm not sold on them as a truly great team. O'Brien was nowhere near the quarterback Russell Wilson was. They are downgrading at the most critical position. They lose some key players on offense like Nick Toon and Peter Konz. I expect the Badgers to be good. I don't know if they are great.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 5-3
Expected Wins: 5.8

Given these predictions, we should see Michigan and Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. Keep in mind, that the expected win totals are based off of probabilities. Every team has a chance in a game, so that chance is factored into the expected wins. Some of these teams will win more games and some will win less. I will probably have the ACC up tomorrow or sometime this weekend and I'll move onto new conferences next week.

Sizing Up LSU, Post-Mathieu

Mathieu let down a lot of people, but most importantly, himself

Today, LSU notified the college football world that they had kicked star cornerback, Tyrann Mathieu, off the team. This is a huge blow to the Tigers as Mathieu was one of the best players in the country last year, making it to New York as a Heisman finalist. LSU was supposed to challenge for the National Championship again, ranked #1 in the preseason USA Today Coaches' poll. It's pretty clear now that the expectations will have to be brought very much in check.

Before the Mathieu news, LSU looked like a leading contender for the National Championship. They host Alabama at home this year, and their out of conference schedule is laughable (as most SEC OOC schedules are). Without Mathieu, the winning probabilities have definitely changed. While LSU might still be favorites in every game besides the aforementioned tilt against the Crimson Tide, they aren't as big a favorites as they were before. Let's walk through the schedule:

North Texas - Like most SEC teams, LSU's out of conference schedule is kind of a joke. The Mean Green should not be a threat to LSU regardless of who is playing. LSU losing this game would be as shocking as Michigan losing to Appalachian State.
Pre-Mathieu: 99%
Post-Mathieu: 99%

Washington - Washington is a mid-level Pac-12 team. They might continue to improve, especially since their recruiting is getting better with Super Recruiter, Tosh Lupoi, aboard. They should, however, not provide much of a challenge to a Mathieu-less Tigers.
Pre-Mathieu: 90%
Post-Mathieu: 85%

Idaho - I'm not sure how much LSU is paying Idaho to visit Baton Rouge, but this should be an easy win. The Vandals were the worst team in the WAC last season, and there really shouldn't be an expectation for them to put up much of a fight against the National Runner-Ups.
Pre-Mathieu: 99%
Post-Mathieu: 99%

@Auburn - Auburn did not have a great 2011, after losing Cam Newton and Nick Fairley to the draft. These Tigers finished 8-4 last season and they still have issues at the QB position. The main advantage that Auburn will have is that this game will take place at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Often times last season, LSU looked laggy away from Death Valley, and it was a big play by Mathieu that gave them the emotional lift to rise above. That little extra that LSU might need, that's gone. LSU will still be the favorites, but not as big as they would have been before.
Pre-Mathieu: 80%
Post-Mathieu: 60%

Towson - The last out of conference game on LSU's schedule, and this is another cupcake. Really not much more that needs to be said.
Pre-Mathieu: 99%
Post Mathieu: 99%

@Florida - Florida really has not been the same offensively since Tim Tebow went to the draft. While they continue to stock pile talent, they are getting about as much use out of the talent as Notre Dame. There still is no answer at the quarterback position. At the same time, their defense remained one of the best in the country. Last year, Florida was 8th in total defense, and and 20th in the country in scoring defense. With both teams struggling offensively, this could be another SEC scissorfest. Again, like against Auburn, not having the emotional lift that a Mathieu can provide should hurt LSU.
Pre-Mathieu: 75%
Post Mathieu: 60%

South Carolina - The Gamecocks had one of the best defenses in the country and they retain star defensive end, Jadeveon Clowney. They were 3rd in total defense and 11th in scoring defense. The problem for South Carolina, like with most SEC teams, is that the offense struggled due to poor quarterback play. On offense, they return Marcus Lattimore and have an emerging quarterback in Connor Shaw. They don't have to worry about the inconsistencies of Stephen Garcia anymore. This could be a close game. It could be a tough game for LSU if this falls on the offense.
Pre-Mathieu: 75%
Post-Mathieu: 65%

@Texas A&M - The Aggies are hard to gauge because we don't know how Kevin Sumlin's offense is going to translate to the defense heavy SEC. A&M also loses quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, but having a clean slate might be for the best with the new system. Furthermore, Kyle Field is notoriously one of the toughest places to play in college football and prides itself on the 11th man. A&M had a top offense last season that return Ryan Swope but will need someone to emerge at the quarterback spot. LSU should be able to handle a young quarterback.
Pre-Mathieu: 90%
Post-Mathieu: 85%

Alabama - Before Mathieu got kicked off the team, this would have been once again one of the most hyped games of the season. Despite LSU failure in last year's championship game, they return a lot of players and were supposed to be as strong. Without their star playmaker, that is probably not the case. Bama doesn't rebuild, they reload. They're just as strong as last season and should be one of the favorites for the national championship. Before this game, it might have been a coin flip situation with a slight edge to Alabama. Now, you have to say that Alabama should be a big favorite.
Pre-Mathieu: 45%
Post-Mathieu: 20%

Mississippi St - This is a game LSU should win. Mississippi State is not a good SEC team and they have to go to Death Valley to face LSU. There really shouldn't be much change.
Pre-Mathieu: 90%
Post-Mathieu: 85%

Ole Miss - Ole Miss is the worst team in the conference, save Kentucky but that doesn't really count. LSU should easily take care of business against the Rebels.
Pre-Mathieu: 95%
Post-Mathieu: 92.5%

@Arkansas - Last year's tilt at Death Valley was close for three quarters before LSU pulled away. While the Razorbacks lost their top receivers, they return one of the SEC's best quarterbacks in Tyler Wilson. They also have the tank, Knile Davis, at running back. The defense was not good, but even if it improves a little bit, it could be huge for the Razorbacks. I expect that the coaching change from Petrino to John L Smith should have a minimal effect. This game is in Fayetteville and Arkansas should be the favorite.
Pre-Mathieu: 55%
Post-Mathieu: 40%

Pre-Mathieu Expected Wins: 9.92 wins
Post-Mathieu Expected Wins: 9.095

So basically in this completely non-scientific method of trying to find LSU's win expectancy, Mathieu is worth a game. There's no game that LSU couldn't win before and can't win now, but the odds of each game has changed. LSU could still go undefeated, but that seems unlikely. They were a 10-12 win team before, so it makes sense that they would be a 9-11 win team now. They have a tough schedule and games that might have been blowouts before could be close now. It's up to Les Miles to make it not a factor.

Mid-Week Madness Bans Petrino From His Own Funeral

On both Friday and Monday, I suggested that Arkansas would be forced to fire Bobby Petrino. Last night, it finally happened. We weren't sure how it would go down, but Jeff Long answered all of our questions:

It's safe to say that Long was the big winner yesterday. He handled the situation and the press conference with class, emotion, and conviction. While he shared with the media the facts that led him to fire Petrino, Long did not allow the media to pry into the private matters involving Petrino, Dorrell, and her fiance. Long was very respectful of Petrino, but he ultimately did what he had to.

So what did we find out?

Beyond what we already knew, what did we learn from the press conference? We learned some of the details regarding the relationship between Bobby Petrino and Jessica Dorrell and why Jeff Long had to fire Petrino:

According to Long, Petrino’s relationship with the 25-year-old recent hire, Jessica Dorrell, lasted a “significant” amount of time, and at one point, Petrino gave her $20,000 out of his own pocket as a “gift.” 

Dorrell, a former Razorbacks volleyball player, was hired by Petrino on March 28, only four days before both were involved in the motorcycle crash on a rural road outside of the city. Long said she was one of three finalists among a pool of 159 applicants, and was given the job in an unusually quick process. Dorrell, who reportedly called off an engagement one week before the accident, has hired a lawyer and could sue for sexual harassment. Under the school’s sexual harassment policy, even “consensual sexual relationships between faculty and their students or between supervisors and their employees in some instances may result in charges of sexual harassment.”

 As a state university, Arkansas had to fire Petrino because of fair employment practices and affirmative action. Dorrell was given an unfair advantage through the hiring process, and Petrino violated those employment policies by hiring her. While Jeff Long could have fired Petrino for a number of reasons, he had to fire Petrino for that. Petrino was fired with cause, which means that he will not be receiving any of his buyout money.

The white knight in all of this though is Jeff Long. CBS's Brett McMurphy was quick to praise the Arkansas AD:

So Long did the unthinkable. He did the right thing. He fired the man he took a chance on only five years ago because that same man "knowingly misled the university, he abused his authority, he made personal choices that benefited himself and he deceived me and members of the athletic department."

And he concludes:

Jeff Long showed Tuesday night that, unlike his former football coach, he is a class individual.

Integrity is the word that's being circulated to describe Long's actions. Now, there are some that question what he did because he was also the person that hired Bobby Petrino to begin with:

As we’re praising Long for firing Petrino, let’s not forget he also hired him. Petrino left the Atlanta Falcons immediately, during the season. Also, the coach had a long history of lying to superiors. So Long shouldn’t have been terribly surprised to learn Petrino tried to mislead or manipulate.

He has had a dodgy reputation that dates back to his time at Louisville, where he tried to keep one of his players from attending a friend's funeral. He also left the Falcons in the middle of the season to take the Razorbacks job. We all knew Petrino was a bad person. He was able to hide behind winning seasons up until the motorcycle accident. Long wanted to believe that he could trust Petrino, even though Petrino had provided no evidence that he could be trusted. While it may have been a suspect hire to begin with, Long didn't stand by his mistake, but rather he cut his losses.

Petrino for his part issued a statement last night, but there's nothing worth discussing. He made his mistakes and he's paying the price. End of story.

It's not the end of the story for Arkansas as they will have to move on. Taver Johnson, the former Ohio State assistant, will take over as Interim Head Coach through the end of Spring Practice as Jeff Long conducts his search. Clearly, the top choice or name at any SEC program would be Gus Malzahn:

GUS MALZAHN, head coach, Arkansas State. Without a doubt the first name to spring to mind of many Hog fans, the Natural State's native son (and, briefly, former Arkansas assistant) has been assumed to be headed for the Razorback head gig sooner or later. But this soon? That the previous Auburn whiz-"kid" said yes to the Red Wolves at all shows how close his ties to the state are, making the Arkansas position something akin to a dream job. But to sign up for 2012, leaving his new program in the lurch after just weeks at the helm, isn't likely something the low-key Malzahn will consider. If Long wants someone permanent now, he'll likely have to look elsewhere. But if he goes the interim route, and Malzahn's Red Wolves bolster his already solid reputation? Malzahn becomes your front-runner.

It seems that Malzahn is unlikely to leave Arkansas State after just having taken the job. Long could try to convince Malzahn to leave by giving him an ultimatum, but it's not like Malzahn's stock is going to go down if he declines. He has cemented his reputation as an offensive guru over the last few years, and he can only improve his stock by having success as a head coach. I could foresee a number of positions in the SEC opening up in the future, and Malzahn's name will be at the top of the list for all of them. There's no reason for him to leave at this time and if Long wants to get him, he might be best off waiting for next year and going through this season with an interim head coach.

Another option for Arkansas could be former offensive coordinator and current UAB coach, Garrick McGee:

All of which has led some to suggest that Long should go get one of the central figures of Petrino's success, 2010-11 offensive coordinator and current UAB head coach Garrick McGee. With quarterback Tyler Wilson, running back Knile Davis, receivers Chris Gragg and Cobi Hamilton and eight defensive starters returning, Arkansas has a chance to produce an SEC title contender this fall, and McGee, with his expertise of the system and the personnel, could take over with minimal disruption. 

But to do that would be to sell Arkansas' program short. McGee is a 39-year-old who's not yet coached his first game. While he's respected enough to land a head coaching job, it's only at a bottom-barrel Conference USA school. He may well be a future star, but better to find that out at UAB than to hand over the keys to an SEC program to a complete unknown.

With McGee, you would probably have a smoother transition due to the familiarity with the current players, but again, you run into the same problems as you did with Malzahn; McGee doesn't have head coaching experience. It's telling that these two are the best current candidates. It's safe to say that one of these coaches would be likely to succeed and one of them might be great future candidates for the Arkansas job. However, it might not be worth the risk for Arkansas to hire one of these candidates without any prior head coaching experience at the Division 1 level.

I just can't see Arkansas hiring a new coach at this point. Even if they found a worthy candidate and offered boatloads of money, it might not be the best time to make a new hire. We're past signing day and Spring Practice is near its conclusion. The new coach has missed his opportunity to acclimate himself with his current players (and vice versa) and he's missed his opportunity to bring in his own players. The best decision, in my opinion, would be to go with the Interim Head Coach, at least for this season.

Weekend Wrap Congratulates BC

I have to start today by congratulating the Boston College Eagles. On Saturday night, they won their third National Championship in 5 years and their fourth in the last 12 years. The story isn't the program though; it's this team. They won 19 straight games on the way to this title, including the Bean Pot and Hockey East. Riding that hot streak coming into the tournament, it's no surprise that the Eagles took home the hardware, but it is remarkable what they've accomplished.

Last Summer, Jerry York was unsure of what he had:

TAMPA - When Jerry York met with his staff last summer, the Boston College hockey coach viewed his team as something of a jigsaw puzzle, with its pieces scattered all over. 

He knew that eventually he’d figure out where they would fit together, but because of the players they had lost from the year before it was going to take time. 

York talked about it being a sort of rebuilding year, but the Eagles don’t rebuild, they reload.

That last bit has become somewhat of a motto for the BC faithful. While it may sound arrogant, it's hard to argue with the results that the Eagles have gotten. The Globe continues as it sums up this team:

As the whole became greater than the parts, BC went from a pretty talented squad seeking an identity to one with a genuine No. 1 goaltender in Milner, four viable lines that contributed on a nightly basis, six veteran defensemen who worked together like a well-oiled machine, and a coaching staff that deftly figured out that the leadership of the senior class - led by Cross, who was the captain - raised everyone’s standards and expectations.

A lot of times, when you have talented players, they do what they want. It's hard to get things to click. A good example of this might be BC's archrival, the BU Terriers. They probably get a similar level of talent, but they don't play with discipline or with an emphasis on team hockey. BC struggled early in the season, but York got them on the right path:

“In the beginning of the year, we didn’t know where everyone was going to fit in,’’ said Mullane. “As the year went on, everyone realized what their role was and where they were going to fit. The reason we were successful was because guys bought into that. A lot of teams that aren’t successful don’t buy into that idea of ‘I’m going to take my role and embrace it.’ Because everyone wants to be a goal-scorer, but if you’re going to be successful, you can’t have all goal-scorers. Our team realized that we had to be our best in our individual roles.’’

The BC team got "it" and was rewarded at the end of the day. With the way they played, it's hard to say that they didn't earn it. While they may lose a lot of players from this team, beware that the Eagles don't rebuild, they reload. They mean it too.

***

Jeff Long has a tough decision to make

Obviously, the big story continues to be Bobby Petrino. I said on Friday that Jeff Long would be pressured to fire Bobby Petrino because of the lies. Upon further review, the biggest issue seems to be the affair and the circumstances under which Jessica Dorrell was hired. There seems to be plenty of leeway for Long to fire Petrino:

A clause in Petrino's contract gives Long the right to suspend or fire the 51-year-old coach for conduct that "negatively or adversely affects the reputation of the (university's) athletics programs in any way." 

That language gives Long plenty of leeway to punish Petrino, who is on indefinite paid leave after reviving Arkansas' football program over four seasons and, until now, steering clear of off-field blemishes.

There is no doubt that Petrino has brought negative attention to the university's athletic programs. While Long has the right to fire Petrino, I believe that if Petrino gets fired, it's because Long's hand is forced more than anything. Petrino is a winner and one of the brightest minds in college football. That's hard to let go. Unfortunately, the decision may be out of Long's hands. It would probably be the right decision though.

Petrino's misstep represents a lesson to head coaches of major programs:

"Like it or not, that's what you signed up for and that's your responsibility," Pelini said. "You're responsible to people way beyond just you first and foremost your family, the athletic department, the football team, the players, your staff, everybody you're associated with." 

Pelini said he keeps that thought in mind anytime he's in public. 

"Your reputation is your greatest asset," Pelini said. "You better protect it at all times."

Petrino's reputation has clearly been tarnished in the last week, and it's all from his own doing. Lori Duncan, a coach at Eastern Kentucky, where Long spent a lot of time, expects Long to do the right thing:

"Personal integrity is very important to him and to us, he alluded to doing things the right way," Duncan said. "It was very, very important to him. I can think back who the kids were, who they were as people and how he treated them. I'd be surprised if he didn't respond in a very strong way."

From the way that is phrased, one can only presume that Petrino is done at Arkansas. There are plenty of reasons to fire Petrino based on football, and there are a lot of rumors about what's going on with the story right now. It would only be prudent to look at who the next coach at Arkansas might be. One of the most talked about candidates seems to be Garrick McGee of UAB:

McGee is asked about the situation at Arkansas around 4 minutes into the interview, but doesn't specifically address any interest that he might have in the position. The other "big name" candidate that's been talked about is Gus Malzahn of Arkansas State. CBS Sports speculates about him, but concludes that he won't want any part of the drama:

Staying at Arkansas State is the right thing to do. It also might be the smart thing to do. Arkansas would be a huge step up, a step Malzahn is now prepared for. But by now he also has intimate knowledge of the soap opera Fayetteville can become. If they had just run Nutt out because he wasn't winning enough that would fine. But they also ran him out with innuendo, out-and-out harassment. 

When they don't want you at Arkansas, they really don't want you. 

That's the reason Malzahn won't take the job, perhaps ever. He'll make his underpaid $1.1 million at Arkansas State and turn it into “the next Boise State.” (His words.) Then he'll be back as an SEC head coach. Just not now and just not at Arkansas.

I'm not sure that Malzahn will turn Arkansas State into "the next Boise State" so much as he will wait for the right opportunity to open up. With a scandal like this, it's always tough to step into the situation. However, there seems to be some rooted problems with the way Arkansas handles these type of situations and it might be something that Malzahn wants to avoid. Down the line, there could be an opening at another big SEC school in the future (Florida, for one, if Muschamp continues his reign of failure). In the meantime, he can do his job at Arkansas State, where he will be the man.

CBS Sports also lists realistic replacements and McGee is at the top of that list:

Garrick McGee – The overwhelming No. 1 choice to replace Petrino. Alabama-Birmingham's new coach, like Gus, has yet to coach a game. But it's much easier to leave UAB than it is Arkansas State. Why? UAB isn't in the same state. McGee was Arkansas' former offensive coordinator and big time quarterback developer. Ask Ryan Mallett and Tyler Wilson. Deep down, I don't think the Blazers' administration would blame McGee for leaving. It's an SEC job and you're UAB.

It seems like an easy decision were it the case, unless Arkansas wants to bridge a year to get a bigger name. Some of the other names mentioned are Tony Dungy, Pat Hill, and Mark Mangino. Mangino would probably not be a good hire for Arkansas, but it would be a great deal of entertainment for the rest of us.

At this point in the offseason, I would presume that Arkansas would either continue under Taver Johnson, or that they would appoint a coach for a bridge year. There is no way they are going to lure someone away now considering that the recruiting year is over and we're essentially through Spring Practice. It just wouldn't make sense.

***

The Rose Bowl is College Football's Tradition Like No Other

Georgia's president believes that the Big Ten-Pac 12 Rose Bowl matchup is outdated:

"This is not 1950, or 1960," Adams told The Wall Street Journal. "There are great schools in the [Atlantic Coast Conference] and the Southeastern Conference and the Big 12. I think it's time to put everybody on an equal footing. I just reject the notion that the Big Ten and the Pac-12 ought to be treated differently in this process. 

"If they can be accommodated without changing the entire process, then I think everyone is open to that. I have great respect for the Big Ten and the Pac-12, and have two Big Ten degrees [from Ohio State]. But I don't think that they have the right to dictate policy to all the rest of us."

I know this is taking his comments out of context, but as far as the tradition of having the Pac-12 and Big Ten in the Rose Bowl, I believe that should be preserved. The Rose Bowl was first played in 1902 and has been played annually between the two conferences since 1916. It's the Granddaddy of Them All. There's so much tradition and pageantry with the parade and everything involved. It's important to the two conferences, and I don't think it's dated.

If we got rid of some of the traditions in college football where would we be? What if Michigan-Ohio State wasn't played at the end of the season? What if Oklahoma-Texas wasn't played at the Cotton Bowl? These are the type of things we'd be missing out on because they've been done for so long. There's this call to come up with new solutions and to make things better, but why uproot beautiful traditions that have made the sport what it is?

Now, getting back on topic as far as Adams is concerned, I don't think that there should be a special rule that the Big Ten/Pac 12 Champions should have to play in the Rose Bowl, especially when the stake of the National Championship game is available. At the same time, I don't think that the Rose Bowl needs the Big Ten/Pac 12 Champions if they're in the playoff. We've seen a couple times in the last ten years where the Big Ten champion has gone to the National Championship and the runner up has gone to the Rose Bowl. It hasn't taken away from the game. I don't see how there is a problem with that.

The playoff system itself is another can of worms and I'll discuss it further when I look at proposals more thoroughly. The Rose Bowl should keep with tradition though. I feel very strongly about that.

***

Quick Hitters: Cranky Arkansas old man is cranky and old. Brock Mealer walking is inspirational. The judge in the Sandusky trial has issued a Gag Order. S Josh Furman has been suspended by Michigan. The Wolverines are also listed as a 14.5 point underdog against Alabama in the season opener. How Urban Meyer broke Florida football. The number of college hockey players in the NHL has grown greatly since the 1999-2000 season.

Friday Feature Fires Bobby Petrino

Bobby Petrino is (was?) the Head Coach of the Razorbacks

Last night, Arkansas Athletic Director, Jeff Long, held a press conference to announce that Bobby Petrino  has been placed on administrative leave, barring further investigation:

"I hope to have a resolution soon," Long said. I certainly don't have all the answers here tonight, as we meet. But again, I have an obligation and responsibility to obtain the information and then act appropriately on that information."

If you missed the details of what happened, Petrino was involved in a motorcycle accident, which left him in the above state (also, the Police Report):

"Arkansas State Police was notified of a single vehicle motor vehicle crash along Highway 16 in Madison County near the Crosses community about 6:45 last night (Sunday)," the statement read. "The crash involved a motorcycle that had left the roadway. Coach Petrino was the operator of the motorcycle. He was transported to a Washington County medical facility."

From the outset, this had a Tiger Woods-like vibe. If you remember back in 2009, Tiger Woods was in a car accident on Thanksgiving night. The accident and impending marriage problems led to the unearthing of the many affairs that Woods had had over the years. He lost endorsements and he lost the allure that made him Tiger Woods.

Bobby Petrino is nowhere near the figure that Tiger Woods is or was, but the accident has really brought to question his integrity. In his previous statement, he lied about having a passenger, which calls to question his trustworthiness. There are many other questions that might come from this as more details of the incident make their way to the public, but at the moment, we have to hold judgment. Just reading his statement, I can't say things are going to be fine and dandy for Petrino:

“The state police report today provides an accurate description of my accident, which includes details that had not publicly come to light prior to the report being issued. I regret that I have not publicly acknowledged a passenger on the vehicle. I have been in constant pain, medicated and the circumstances involving the wreck have come out in bits and pieces. That said I certainly had a concern about Jessica Dorrell’s name being revealed. In my press conference, I referred to her simply as ‘a lady’. My concern was to protect my family and a previous inappropriate relationship from becoming public. In hindsight, I showed a serious mistake in judgment when I chose not to be more specific about those details. Today, I’ve acknowledged this previous inappropriate relationship with my family and those within the athletic department administration.

It feels like there is a whole can of worms waiting to be opened. Petrino probably hasn't done anything illegal, but he's done plenty to threaten the reputation of the University of Arkansas and everyone associated with it. Petrino has backed Long into a corner where Long will either have to fire a coach when there's no one better on the market or keep Petrino knowing that he [Long] cannot trust him. CBS Sports's Bruce Feldman speculates on what will happen:

Winning coaches often get the benefit of the doubt. And Petrino, love him or hate him--and most people outside of the state of Arkansas tend to go with the latter, is a superb offensive coach. He is 34-17 in four seasons at Arkansas in the toughest division in college football. Two seasons ago, the Hogs finished 12th in the nation. Last year, they finished fifth. They're going to be loaded on offense again, led by QB Tyler Wilson and running back Knile Davis, and they have both Alabama and LSU at home. Expectations are soaring. Or at least they were till Thursday night. 

It is such a mess. Can he go back to work after being at the center of this? How does he face his co-workers? His team? How does he sit down in a recruit's home on the couch and speak to the kid or his parents after this? Some people I spoke to Thursday night (several who work in college athletes) said they don't see how Petrino can survive this. Really? It wouldn't surprise me at all. While these are valid questions, we've seen repeated instances of coaches getting themselves into awkward and embarrassing situations time and time again and yet, if the guy is a winner, people will give them another chance. Lots of folks have short memories. A lot shorter than those it seems of the media--and rival fans. It happens so often we just shrug our shoulders whenever that guy later says something that sounds like pure rhetoric, and yet a thirsty fan base is usually right there to vigorously defend him and administrators and boosters are there to pay him lots of money provided the guy wins enough games and doesn't get stuck in any NCAA spiderwebs.

I understand that having a winning program is incredibly important, but perhaps what hurts Petrino the most is the fact that he lied to the AD and paraded himself in public prior to the Dorrell news getting out. He was hailed as some sort of warrior for gutting out the injuries to return to practice. While it did take some courage to get back to work, there was an element of the truth missing. That element, as it turns out, is a big part of the story.

By parading himself out in the media while perpetuating a lie, he has put Arkansas in an extremely difficult situation, but I think Bobby Petrino has coached his last game for the Arkansas Razorbacks. The one thing that schools do not want any part of is scandal. While keeping a winning team is important, there will be moral pressure from alumni and administration to let him go. There is too much at stake.

I'm not sure how it's going to affect the current team. I'm not sure if it's too late to gain entry into the NFL Draft. I will say, however, that if Tyler Wilson does get into the draft, he'll probably be the third best QB on the board behind Luck and RG3. I mean Ryan Tannehill? Come on.

***

Last night, Boston College rolled through Minnesota to get into the final where they will face Ferris State. I did not watch either of these games due to the poor quality of my ESPN U. From what I've heard, the Ferris-Union game was pretty even whereas the BC-Minnesota game was anything but. Boston College is not only one of the most talented teams, but also the hottest. They will be an overwhelming favorite to win the National Championship on Saturday night. There's really not that much to add.

***

If you haven't been already, make sure you watch Shutdown Fullback, a show featuring EDSBS's Spencer Hall and SBNation's Jason Kirk. The show features a lot of laughs at the expense of everyone. My follow of the week would go to Eight Ball the Tiger, the fictional account of Clemson's drugged out mascot. There will be a lot of programs that will have their Spring Game this weekend, including Clemson, Florida State, Georgia, and South Carolina, so hopefully I'll have some reaction from those.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Idea for Formulating Tournament Success

This is more me spitballing to try and come up with a good concept. I'm having trouble thinking in my head, so I thought it would be a good idea to get some of these things down. As I said before, some of the stats I look at most are free throw percentage, rebounding margin, and assist-turnover ratio. It's been hard for me to combine all of the concepts that I'm working with, so it might be better to keep them separate for the time being. What I have been working on mostly is playing with the rebounding margin statistic.

The rebounding margin statistic, to me, is all about the ability to gain extra possessions (from previous post that is linked above): 

If you are outrebounding your opponent, you are either preventing second chance opportunities or you are getting second chances opportunities.

I thought about other statistics which are suggestive of a team's ability to gain more or lose possessions. I added steals and blocks to the rebounding margin and subtracted turnovers. Basically, you have a statistic which measures your ability to take away a possession from the other team or to give away a possession in addition to your rebounding margin. The results of this statistic were pretty interesting (Top 10 teams):

1. Kentucky
2. North Carolina
3. Ohio State
4. St. Mary's
5. Michigan State
6. BYU
7. Kansas
8. New Mexico State
9. Wichita State
10. Connecticut

Kentucky obviously went on to win the tournament and Kansas was the runner up. North Carolina, Ohio State and Michigan State also made deep runs. Most of the other schools like St Mary's, New Mexico State, and Wichita State are mid-major who may not have played a high level of competition and therefore their statistics might have been a bit inflated.

The bottom 10 teams of the statistic is pretty telling as well as most of these teams did not win many games:

68. Mississippi Valley State
67. Colorado State
66. Western Kentucky
65. Long Island University - Brooklyn
64. Michigan
63. Norfolk State
62. Notre Dame
61. UNC-Asheville
60. Iona
59. Ohio

Ohio had two wins in the tournament, one of which came against Michigan. Norfolk State shocked Missouri in one of the 15-2 upsets. Most of the rest of these teams are some of the worst teams in the tournament. Michigan and Notre Dame are big conference teams, and it's clear that this is part of the reason that they lost in the first round.

I guess just looking at these numbers, you can get a pretty decent idea of which teams will be successful, but I'd also look at them head to head. I think the Ohio-Michigan example is a good one because while Ohio is not good in this statistic, they are better than Michigan. This is not the only aspect of the game that I think is important, but I do think that this can be a significant indicator of tournament success.

I'm having trouble gauging how to make the free throw percentage statistic effective. It doesn't matter how well you shoot free throws if you're not getting to the line. As I said before, I've mostly played around with the rebounding statistic, and this is a statistic that I will probably play with next. I think it would have to be more of a power index as far as the teams that are going to be physical. I'd probably look at free throw attempts, but I'd also want to see how it goes along with rebounding margin or at least look at offensive rebounds. This is going to be more tricky as it'll be tougher to find correlation with winning.

I've sort of ignored the assist-turnover statistic because that one to me has more to do with looking at rosters. I haven't really gone through the rosters because I'm not sure how I am going categorize and index depth. May be after I look at a few rosters, I can get an idea of how the average roster looks and work off of that.

There's still a lot of work to be done.

The Dark Underbelly of College Sports

It's always weird to see people's reaction to winning a National Championship. It should be a moment of joy. It should be a celebration. People should be happy. Only good should come out of it. This is just a very utopian view on how a championship should be handled.

In reality, it is much different.

Kentucky won the Men's National Championship last night, and afterwards, there was no question about how their fans would celebrate their championship:

A clue to the bedlam that would occur in Lexington, KY

The end product wasn't just the burning of couches; it was rioting, fires, and even some gun shots. Cars were flipped over. Does that sound like jubilation to you? The police say that this behavior is intolerable:

"We want to send a clear and strong message that individuals who engage in this behavior will be investigated and prosecuted," Lexington Police Chief Ronnie Bastin said. "If you choose to commit criminal acts, don't be surprised when we knock on your door even days after the event and arrest you."

But it doesn't change the fact that this happened. It's hard to say the police weren't complacent when images such as this are on the internet:

In fact, the number one trend on Twitter last night was "#LexingtonPoliceScanner" as many people, myself included, listened to the mayhem that was being reported on the radio. It was disappointing the way these people were acting.

I don't have a problem with people celebrating a championship in the streets. As long as it is controlled and people respect others' property, it's fine. The scene out of Lexington was anything but these things:

This is a city where students live and go to school. While there is reason to be excited, that excitement should not be directed towards the destruction of property. You don't show how much you love your team in that manner. In addition to all the physical damage, you're doing damage to your own personal reputation and the reputation of your school and even your state.

I can't say that police didn't care because they were largely outnumbered, but there could have been more done. There could have been a better plan. When Michigan State was knocked out of the tournament, the students first instinct was to riot and start couch fires. The police had a plan: they watered down the couches. While there was some damage, that was limited by the rallying cry for destruction that the couch fires seem to be. When the police is ordering each other "maintain integrity," it's hard to believe in the commitment of the Lexington Police Department to stop this wave of destruction.

Unfortunately, this has become the status quo in college towns if something goes right or wrong. In an environment of young misguided adults, where alcohol is plentiful, this has become the standard reaction. After Penn State fired Joe Paterno, students rioted. After Alabama won the Football National Championship, a Bama fan teabagged a LSU fan. Also, after Auburn won the 2011 Football Championship, a Bama fan poisoned the famed trees on the Auburn campus. These are just a few acts of destruction in recent years.

It's unacceptable, but it has become the dirty underbelly of college sports culture.

***

On one of the forums that I post on, a Cuse fan made the case that they could have beat Kentucky:

There were only two teams, IMO, that had a real shot at knocking off Kentucky this year: UNC and Syracuse. Syracuse because of their athleticism, depth, ability to run (they could have run with UK), and if it's played to its potential, their 2-3 zone could cause anyone fits. And UNC because of all their NBA talent. 

But losing perhaps each teams' most indispensable players (for SU Fab Melo, BE defensive player of the year, anchors the middle, shot-blocker supreme; and for UNC Kendall Marshall, one of the best point guards in the country...makes that team go) ended all hopes at that. 

UK proved all year long that they were the best team in the country. I am ok with that (I'd rather it have been my alma mater, but oh well).

I guess you can play hypotheticals if you want, but my big problem with all of this is that I believe Syracuse's record and seeding was inflated by the fact that Melo had played as long as he did. Furthermore, Syracuse didn't announce that Melo was ineligible until after the bracket was announced. They probably knew he was ineligible well before then, but decided to wait until the bracket was set in stone to make that announcement. Again, one of the keys here is that Syracuse is the one who ruled him ineligible and not the NCAA. They also hid behind the FERPA so that they didn't have to disclose more.

While I think Boeheim was right to rule him ineligible for the tournament, I'd have also liked to know if he should have been deemed ineligible sooner. I think Syracuse benefited from choosing when to announce that Melo would miss the tournament. If Melo's absence had been announced before the bracket is finalized, I could see Syracuse dropping a seed. They could have easily lost in an earlier round facing a strong 3 or 6 seed in the Sweet Sixteen. It could be said that Syracuse did as well as they did in the tournament because they had an easier route as a 1 seed. Syracuse was hurt in the tournament by Melo's absence, but they could have been hurt sooner had they announced his ineligibility sooner.

On the other hand, UNC may have lost because of an injury and not due to any wrongdoing by a player or coach. That is something that you really can't control, but it is the reality of playing games. I have less of a problem with Carolina fans playing the "what if" game because of this. The bottom line is that you don't crown a champion on paper. As sports followers, we love to play the hypotheticals, but in the end, they really don't matter after the fact. Kentucky is the deserving National Champion as they've shown all season long that they are the best team in the country. They were the number one seed in the tournament going in and they proved that they were the top team in the tournament by winning the whole thing.

***

The Melo story makes me question if the NCAA handles students' academic situations right. From what I've heard, Melo was in poor academic standard through out the season. While he was suspended for three games, it's hard for me to believe that he was actually eligible to play. If Boeheim had his way, I believe Melo would have played in the tournament, but with the Bernie Fine scandal, he could not afford to take another hit to his reputation. I'm surprised that Melo played in the Big East tournament.

It was also reported today that Mo Claiborne, the LSU cornerback entering the NFL draft, scored a 4 on his Wonderlic. The score doesn't stand out as much to me as the question how he managed to stay eligible at LSU. How can you be at a major academic institution and score a 4 on the Wonderlic? It's preposterous and the NCAA should do better to make sure these kids are actually being educated. 

These two stories make it worrisome as to whether the academic aspect of college sports is taken seriously. While the NCAA might talk up its student-athletes' performances in the classroom and beyond, that's just PR. How do you explain things like this? It's hard for me to believe that they actually care about educating these kids.

At the time that I wrote this, I was unaware that Mo Claiborne had a learning disability, which in the case of this test, can make a huge difference. I still have to stay on the NCAA for not putting enough of an effort towards pushing schools to educating student-athletes and keeping them out of trouble and prepared for life. 

***

My bracket finished 34,511 out of just under 7 million entries. That puts me into the top 0.5%, which is very impressive. In the meantime, I've started to play with numbers to try to formulate the thinking that went into those picks. Hopefully, I'll have something to post about in the next few weeks.