Sizing Up LSU, Post-Mathieu

Mathieu let down a lot of people, but most importantly, himself

Today, LSU notified the college football world that they had kicked star cornerback, Tyrann Mathieu, off the team. This is a huge blow to the Tigers as Mathieu was one of the best players in the country last year, making it to New York as a Heisman finalist. LSU was supposed to challenge for the National Championship again, ranked #1 in the preseason USA Today Coaches' poll. It's pretty clear now that the expectations will have to be brought very much in check.

Before the Mathieu news, LSU looked like a leading contender for the National Championship. They host Alabama at home this year, and their out of conference schedule is laughable (as most SEC OOC schedules are). Without Mathieu, the winning probabilities have definitely changed. While LSU might still be favorites in every game besides the aforementioned tilt against the Crimson Tide, they aren't as big a favorites as they were before. Let's walk through the schedule:

North Texas - Like most SEC teams, LSU's out of conference schedule is kind of a joke. The Mean Green should not be a threat to LSU regardless of who is playing. LSU losing this game would be as shocking as Michigan losing to Appalachian State.
Pre-Mathieu: 99%
Post-Mathieu: 99%

Washington - Washington is a mid-level Pac-12 team. They might continue to improve, especially since their recruiting is getting better with Super Recruiter, Tosh Lupoi, aboard. They should, however, not provide much of a challenge to a Mathieu-less Tigers.
Pre-Mathieu: 90%
Post-Mathieu: 85%

Idaho - I'm not sure how much LSU is paying Idaho to visit Baton Rouge, but this should be an easy win. The Vandals were the worst team in the WAC last season, and there really shouldn't be an expectation for them to put up much of a fight against the National Runner-Ups.
Pre-Mathieu: 99%
Post-Mathieu: 99%

@Auburn - Auburn did not have a great 2011, after losing Cam Newton and Nick Fairley to the draft. These Tigers finished 8-4 last season and they still have issues at the QB position. The main advantage that Auburn will have is that this game will take place at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Often times last season, LSU looked laggy away from Death Valley, and it was a big play by Mathieu that gave them the emotional lift to rise above. That little extra that LSU might need, that's gone. LSU will still be the favorites, but not as big as they would have been before.
Pre-Mathieu: 80%
Post-Mathieu: 60%

Towson - The last out of conference game on LSU's schedule, and this is another cupcake. Really not much more that needs to be said.
Pre-Mathieu: 99%
Post Mathieu: 99%

@Florida - Florida really has not been the same offensively since Tim Tebow went to the draft. While they continue to stock pile talent, they are getting about as much use out of the talent as Notre Dame. There still is no answer at the quarterback position. At the same time, their defense remained one of the best in the country. Last year, Florida was 8th in total defense, and and 20th in the country in scoring defense. With both teams struggling offensively, this could be another SEC scissorfest. Again, like against Auburn, not having the emotional lift that a Mathieu can provide should hurt LSU.
Pre-Mathieu: 75%
Post Mathieu: 60%

South Carolina - The Gamecocks had one of the best defenses in the country and they retain star defensive end, Jadeveon Clowney. They were 3rd in total defense and 11th in scoring defense. The problem for South Carolina, like with most SEC teams, is that the offense struggled due to poor quarterback play. On offense, they return Marcus Lattimore and have an emerging quarterback in Connor Shaw. They don't have to worry about the inconsistencies of Stephen Garcia anymore. This could be a close game. It could be a tough game for LSU if this falls on the offense.
Pre-Mathieu: 75%
Post-Mathieu: 65%

@Texas A&M - The Aggies are hard to gauge because we don't know how Kevin Sumlin's offense is going to translate to the defense heavy SEC. A&M also loses quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, but having a clean slate might be for the best with the new system. Furthermore, Kyle Field is notoriously one of the toughest places to play in college football and prides itself on the 11th man. A&M had a top offense last season that return Ryan Swope but will need someone to emerge at the quarterback spot. LSU should be able to handle a young quarterback.
Pre-Mathieu: 90%
Post-Mathieu: 85%

Alabama - Before Mathieu got kicked off the team, this would have been once again one of the most hyped games of the season. Despite LSU failure in last year's championship game, they return a lot of players and were supposed to be as strong. Without their star playmaker, that is probably not the case. Bama doesn't rebuild, they reload. They're just as strong as last season and should be one of the favorites for the national championship. Before this game, it might have been a coin flip situation with a slight edge to Alabama. Now, you have to say that Alabama should be a big favorite.
Pre-Mathieu: 45%
Post-Mathieu: 20%

Mississippi St - This is a game LSU should win. Mississippi State is not a good SEC team and they have to go to Death Valley to face LSU. There really shouldn't be much change.
Pre-Mathieu: 90%
Post-Mathieu: 85%

Ole Miss - Ole Miss is the worst team in the conference, save Kentucky but that doesn't really count. LSU should easily take care of business against the Rebels.
Pre-Mathieu: 95%
Post-Mathieu: 92.5%

@Arkansas - Last year's tilt at Death Valley was close for three quarters before LSU pulled away. While the Razorbacks lost their top receivers, they return one of the SEC's best quarterbacks in Tyler Wilson. They also have the tank, Knile Davis, at running back. The defense was not good, but even if it improves a little bit, it could be huge for the Razorbacks. I expect that the coaching change from Petrino to John L Smith should have a minimal effect. This game is in Fayetteville and Arkansas should be the favorite.
Pre-Mathieu: 55%
Post-Mathieu: 40%

Pre-Mathieu Expected Wins: 9.92 wins
Post-Mathieu Expected Wins: 9.095

So basically in this completely non-scientific method of trying to find LSU's win expectancy, Mathieu is worth a game. There's no game that LSU couldn't win before and can't win now, but the odds of each game has changed. LSU could still go undefeated, but that seems unlikely. They were a 10-12 win team before, so it makes sense that they would be a 9-11 win team now. They have a tough schedule and games that might have been blowouts before could be close now. It's up to Les Miles to make it not a factor.

The Dark Underbelly of College Sports

It's always weird to see people's reaction to winning a National Championship. It should be a moment of joy. It should be a celebration. People should be happy. Only good should come out of it. This is just a very utopian view on how a championship should be handled.

In reality, it is much different.

Kentucky won the Men's National Championship last night, and afterwards, there was no question about how their fans would celebrate their championship:

A clue to the bedlam that would occur in Lexington, KY

The end product wasn't just the burning of couches; it was rioting, fires, and even some gun shots. Cars were flipped over. Does that sound like jubilation to you? The police say that this behavior is intolerable:

"We want to send a clear and strong message that individuals who engage in this behavior will be investigated and prosecuted," Lexington Police Chief Ronnie Bastin said. "If you choose to commit criminal acts, don't be surprised when we knock on your door even days after the event and arrest you."

But it doesn't change the fact that this happened. It's hard to say the police weren't complacent when images such as this are on the internet:

In fact, the number one trend on Twitter last night was "#LexingtonPoliceScanner" as many people, myself included, listened to the mayhem that was being reported on the radio. It was disappointing the way these people were acting.

I don't have a problem with people celebrating a championship in the streets. As long as it is controlled and people respect others' property, it's fine. The scene out of Lexington was anything but these things:

This is a city where students live and go to school. While there is reason to be excited, that excitement should not be directed towards the destruction of property. You don't show how much you love your team in that manner. In addition to all the physical damage, you're doing damage to your own personal reputation and the reputation of your school and even your state.

I can't say that police didn't care because they were largely outnumbered, but there could have been more done. There could have been a better plan. When Michigan State was knocked out of the tournament, the students first instinct was to riot and start couch fires. The police had a plan: they watered down the couches. While there was some damage, that was limited by the rallying cry for destruction that the couch fires seem to be. When the police is ordering each other "maintain integrity," it's hard to believe in the commitment of the Lexington Police Department to stop this wave of destruction.

Unfortunately, this has become the status quo in college towns if something goes right or wrong. In an environment of young misguided adults, where alcohol is plentiful, this has become the standard reaction. After Penn State fired Joe Paterno, students rioted. After Alabama won the Football National Championship, a Bama fan teabagged a LSU fan. Also, after Auburn won the 2011 Football Championship, a Bama fan poisoned the famed trees on the Auburn campus. These are just a few acts of destruction in recent years.

It's unacceptable, but it has become the dirty underbelly of college sports culture.

***

On one of the forums that I post on, a Cuse fan made the case that they could have beat Kentucky:

There were only two teams, IMO, that had a real shot at knocking off Kentucky this year: UNC and Syracuse. Syracuse because of their athleticism, depth, ability to run (they could have run with UK), and if it's played to its potential, their 2-3 zone could cause anyone fits. And UNC because of all their NBA talent. 

But losing perhaps each teams' most indispensable players (for SU Fab Melo, BE defensive player of the year, anchors the middle, shot-blocker supreme; and for UNC Kendall Marshall, one of the best point guards in the country...makes that team go) ended all hopes at that. 

UK proved all year long that they were the best team in the country. I am ok with that (I'd rather it have been my alma mater, but oh well).

I guess you can play hypotheticals if you want, but my big problem with all of this is that I believe Syracuse's record and seeding was inflated by the fact that Melo had played as long as he did. Furthermore, Syracuse didn't announce that Melo was ineligible until after the bracket was announced. They probably knew he was ineligible well before then, but decided to wait until the bracket was set in stone to make that announcement. Again, one of the keys here is that Syracuse is the one who ruled him ineligible and not the NCAA. They also hid behind the FERPA so that they didn't have to disclose more.

While I think Boeheim was right to rule him ineligible for the tournament, I'd have also liked to know if he should have been deemed ineligible sooner. I think Syracuse benefited from choosing when to announce that Melo would miss the tournament. If Melo's absence had been announced before the bracket is finalized, I could see Syracuse dropping a seed. They could have easily lost in an earlier round facing a strong 3 or 6 seed in the Sweet Sixteen. It could be said that Syracuse did as well as they did in the tournament because they had an easier route as a 1 seed. Syracuse was hurt in the tournament by Melo's absence, but they could have been hurt sooner had they announced his ineligibility sooner.

On the other hand, UNC may have lost because of an injury and not due to any wrongdoing by a player or coach. That is something that you really can't control, but it is the reality of playing games. I have less of a problem with Carolina fans playing the "what if" game because of this. The bottom line is that you don't crown a champion on paper. As sports followers, we love to play the hypotheticals, but in the end, they really don't matter after the fact. Kentucky is the deserving National Champion as they've shown all season long that they are the best team in the country. They were the number one seed in the tournament going in and they proved that they were the top team in the tournament by winning the whole thing.

***

The Melo story makes me question if the NCAA handles students' academic situations right. From what I've heard, Melo was in poor academic standard through out the season. While he was suspended for three games, it's hard for me to believe that he was actually eligible to play. If Boeheim had his way, I believe Melo would have played in the tournament, but with the Bernie Fine scandal, he could not afford to take another hit to his reputation. I'm surprised that Melo played in the Big East tournament.

It was also reported today that Mo Claiborne, the LSU cornerback entering the NFL draft, scored a 4 on his Wonderlic. The score doesn't stand out as much to me as the question how he managed to stay eligible at LSU. How can you be at a major academic institution and score a 4 on the Wonderlic? It's preposterous and the NCAA should do better to make sure these kids are actually being educated. 

These two stories make it worrisome as to whether the academic aspect of college sports is taken seriously. While the NCAA might talk up its student-athletes' performances in the classroom and beyond, that's just PR. How do you explain things like this? It's hard for me to believe that they actually care about educating these kids.

At the time that I wrote this, I was unaware that Mo Claiborne had a learning disability, which in the case of this test, can make a huge difference. I still have to stay on the NCAA for not putting enough of an effort towards pushing schools to educating student-athletes and keeping them out of trouble and prepared for life. 

***

My bracket finished 34,511 out of just under 7 million entries. That puts me into the top 0.5%, which is very impressive. In the meantime, I've started to play with numbers to try to formulate the thinking that went into those picks. Hopefully, I'll have something to post about in the next few weeks.

Bowling: The Gripes and The Triumphs

It's long been established that the Bowl Championship Series is not a perfect system. Every year, we seem to have an argument about who should be in the bowls and what to do with teams like Boise State that play a vastly inferior schedule yet find themselves with superb records at the end of the season. This year is no exception.

There are legitimate complaints about the majority of the teams playing in the BCS. I haven't heard anything about the Rose Bowl or Fiesta Bowl, since all four of those teams seem to deserve a place in the BCS.

The championship game is riddled with controversy. LSU already beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa this year. A lot of people wanted to see Oklahoma State in the Championship game. It would have been an interesting contest, but more importantly, it would have been new. The rematch just opens up the conversation for more controversy in the future. What's worse is that the USA Today Coaches Poll voting was released today. We can see that not only did coaches have Oklahoma State below Alabama, but also some had them below Stanford as well. I won't rehash the Oklahoma State versus Alabama debate because that's all over the internet. I will say that Oklahoma State versus Stanford should be a little more clear. Oklahoma State played 7 bowl bound teams, defeating 6. Stanford, including USC who is bowl banned, beat 6 bowl bound teams, defeating 5. The Big XII is a much harder conference than the Pac 12 to boot. I guess we'll see which team is better in the Fiesta Bowl anyway.

The Sugar Bowl has also taken a lot of heat. I believe Michigan deserves to be there. They finished 10-2 with a schedule that featured 10 bowl bound opponents. I also feel that the Big Ten Conference as a whole has not received the positive public perception that it should. There were 5 teams from the Big Ten that finished in the top 25. Not enough people are pointing this out. A lot of the complaints are coming from Michigan State because they won the Legends Division and played in the Big Ten Conference Game. Well, Michigan State had a chance to go out and defeat Wisconsin for the right to play in a better bowl. They did not. It's an imperfect system, but I don't think you can complain about Michigan going to the BCS bowl. Michigan's ranking makes them look worse than they are, but as long as the Big Ten had teams with a good enough record, they were going to get a second BCS bid. Michigan had a good enough record as well as other tangible qualities (see ticket sales).

I believe there are legitimate gripes about Virginia Tech. The ACC is not a strong conference. VT had a chance to show that their only loss was an anomaly, and they were stomped again. Their schedule itself was extremely weak. They faced 6 teams that were bowl eligible including Miami, who is passing on a bowl and the two games against Clemson, and won 4 of them. There were a lot of conference runner ups that had the same record, but with tougher schedules. You could look at a Kansas State, Baylor, or TCU here. It's unfortunate, but what can you do? It's more an exhibition game than a serious competition. It's the money that's the difference. These two teams sell.

The Orange Bowl is kind of a joke. With how bad the Big East teams did this year, they really don't deserve a team in the BCS. Additionally, none of those teams are really competitive with the other major conferences. They're taking a spot from a more deserving team like a Kansas State, Boise State, Baylor, or TCU. West Virginia does not belong. Clemson suffered in the latter part of their year partially because of injury, but they won their conference championship to get in. The Big East didn't even have one of those. I think the system is going to change soon. As far as undeserving schools, West Virginia is at the top of the list, not Michigan, not Virginia Tech, not Clemson.

I really haven't had a good look at the rest of the bowls, but one of the bigger stories should be the fall of Penn State. Rather than playing Oklahoma in the Insight Bowl, Penn State dropped all the way down to facing Houston in the Ticket City Bowl. Clearly, the whole scandal has made them untouchable. This reflects poorly on the Big Ten Conference because Oklahoma should beat Iowa handily, denying the Conference a chance to prove its worth.

I don't have any other thoughts at the moment. It looks like I will be heading to the Sugar Bowl barring any changes. I still have to make travel arrangements, but I bought my ticket to the game. I'll talk more about that when the time comes. The other post I really want to make this week is to talk about the Heisman race. A lot of people are keying in on certain players, but I'm sort of leaning a different way. I'd like to talk more about that.