Sizing Up The Big Ten

When I look at teams within a conference, I usually gauge them by how many conference wins they are going to have. The problem is that you can't really figure out how a team is going to win until you make a full conference schedule rubric. That is what I did for the Big Ten, and what I will try to do for the rest of the conferences, or at least the ones that matter.

The Process: Basically, I went through each game and assigned a probability that the home team wins. This probability, or 1 minus this probability for the away team, is summed up to get the expected wins. The probabilities for the games were assigned by looking at games from previous years, factoring in player attrition, as well as where the game is played. I wanted to use as much of the available information possible to gauge how many teams each team in the Big Ten would win.

Illinois
Summary: Illinois had a pretty impressive start to last season, winning their first seven games of the season. Nathan Scheelhaase looked like the next Juice Williams. Everything was going right until everything went wrong. The Illini were killed in their last 6 games, even losing to lowly Minnesota. The collapse cost coach Ron Zook his job. Furthermore, Illinois loses key players like Whitney Mercilus and AJ Jenkins. They will be a different team in 2012, and Todd Graham seems to have brought a new energy to the program. The question is whether they can build off of last year or whether they will have to rebuild.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 2-6
Expected Wins: 3.65

Indiana
Summary: Indiana was the worst team in the Big Ten last year, and not much should change. They struggled to find a quarterback to lead them, but by the end of the season, freshman Tre Roberson showed that he was worth of the position. Despite the lack of talent around him, Roberson could be one of the more exciting players in the Big Ten. Don't expect them to be a much better team than last year though.
Upside: 0-8
Downside: 0-8
Expected Wins: 1.10

Iowa
Summary: After defeating Michigan last season, Iowa controlled their own destiny as far as winning the Legends Division of the Big Ten. They ultimately squandered that opportunity dropping games to Michigan State and Nebraska. That is not to mention their unforgivable loss at Minnesota. The offseason presented Angry Iowa Running Back Hating God (AIRBHG) more chances to smite the Hawkeyes. Leading rusher Marcus Coker, who was supposed to be the mainstay of the offense, transferred to Stony Brook following an allegation of sexual assault. Back up Barkley Hill tore his ACL. Sophomore Damon Bullock and Freshman Greg Garmon will have to step up for Iowa to have any chance this year. Regardless, like any Kirk Ferentz team, Iowa should be solid again.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 2-6
Expected Wins: 4.00

Michigan
Summary: In Brady Hoke's first season, Michigan marched their way to a BCS victory over Virginia Tech. Although Hoke will say he was disappointed that Michigan did not win the Big Ten, it is hard to say that his first season was anything but an overwhelming success. Hoke has changed the culture at Michigan and raised the bar of expectation. With Denard Robinson commanding the offense for his second year under Al Borges's offense, Michigan should see a dramatic improvement in the offense due to Robinson's increased comfort. The Wolverines lose key guys on both sides of the line, but what is left seems to be overlooked by the national media. Michigan is the favorite in the Legends Division for good reason.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 5-3
Expected Wins: 5.95

Michigan State
Summary: The reigning Legends Division champions have lost a lot from last year's team with players like Kirk Cousins, BJ Cunningham, Keshawn Martin, and Jerel Worthy. Despite this, the Spartans should still be one of the contenders for the Legends Division as they bring back a strong linebacking core and defensive secondary. Andrew Maxwell will be asked for a lot in his first season as a starter, but his load will be lightened by running back LeVeon Bell and a strong offensive line. There are still a lot of questions to be answered and a visit by Ohio State and visits to arch-rival Michigan and Wisconsin will not make things any easier. It will take another great coaching job by Mark Dantonio for Sparty to get back to Indianapolis.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 4-4
Expected Wins: 5.60

Minnesota
Summary: Despite being horrible last season, the Gophers managed to win two Big Ten games over Iowa and Illinois. MarQueis Gray will again be asked to do a lot, which won't be easy. Jerry Kill's job may be on the line, and Minnesota would be wise to take care of business at home. It will be the road, however, that will continue to be the overwhelming challenge. The team should be better than last year, but that's not saying much.
Upside: 2-6
Downside: 0-8
Expected Wins: 1.4


Nebraska
Summary: Bo Pelini and his Nebraska Cornhuskers did not exactly enjoy their first season in the Big Ten. They were expected to cruise to the Big Ten title but were thumped in visits to Michigan and Wisconsin and dropped a shocker to Northwestern at home. While they get Michigan and Wisconsin at home this season, it is unlikely that much has changed from last year in those games. Furthermore, trips to East Lansing and Columbus promise to test the Cornhuskers title credentials. Of course, much of the load will be entrusted to the backfield duo of Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead. Burkhead should have another solid year, potentially entering the Heisman discussion if Nebraska can put together some big wins. Martinez continues to be a worry due to his poor passing. Nebraska also loses some key players on defense including Jared Crick, Lavonte David and Alfonzo Dennard. Signs point to another tough year in Lincoln.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 3-5
Expected Wins: 4.60

Northwestern
Summary: Northwestern loses senior leaders in quarterback Dan Persa and wide receiver Jeremy Ebert, but they have a potential big time quarterback in Kain Colter and picked up a big time receiver in Kyle Prater, who transferred from USC. They also have a decent running back in Mike Trumpy, who is coming off a knee injury. Northwestern is never the most talented team, but Pat Fitzgerald always get this team to play tough, hard-nosed football. The Wildcats have plenty of winnable games in the conference beyond the trips to Ann Arbor and East Lansing. Game to game, Northwestern is the most unpredictable team in the Big Ten.
Upside: 6-2
Downside: 1-7
Expected Wins: 3.75

Ohio State
Summary: With Urban Meyer taking over the reins, Ohio State fans should expect a drastic change from the days of Tresselball. While Tressel had some great athletes playing quarterback like Troy Smith and Terrelle Pryor, he never got the most out of their legs. Expect Braxton Miller to thrive in Urban Meyer's spread offense. There will be some problems on offense with two of the top offensive linemen gone as well as the starting running back and top wide receiver. The Buckeyes will have to replace these weapons. Defensively, they should be faster and expect a freshman or two to make an impact. I don't expect Ohio State to be fully what Urban Meyer wants out of his team until year 2 or 3, but this team will be one of the best in the Big Ten, despite the bowl ban. This season should allow Meyer to build to the future.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 4-4
Expected Wins: 5.25

Penn State
Summary: Penn State is another tough team to predict in light of the Sandusky scandal. The Nittany Lions have lost many key players including Silas Redd, the star running back. While I expect Bill O'Brien to get improved out of Matt McGloin, that should not come close to offsetting the loss of Redd. Penn State will continue to be tough, but they will not be Joe Paterno's Penn State. They remind me a lot of the 2007 Michigan team that was stripped of much of its talent, following a coaching and system transition. There is a lot of downside to this team, and it's hard to know what will be seen as a successful season.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 1-7
Expected Wins: 3.55

Purdue
Summary: Purdue is, for many people, the sleeper in the Leaders Division. With Ohio State and Penn State ineligible for the Big Ten Championship game, a lot of people believe that Purdue might have a chance of sneaking past Wisconsin into that game. Purdue was decent last year, finishing 4-4 and above that miserable Ohio State team that the Boilermakers beat in West Lafayette. Ralph Bolden and Caleb TerBush will have to have big seasons for Purdue to even come close to the title game. Luckily, they have their two toughest opponents, Michigan and Wisconsin, at home. The defense should be amongst the best in the Big Ten with Kawann Short leading the line and Ricardo Allen leading the secondary. This is Danny Hope's best team since taking over.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 1-7
Expected Wins: 3.35

Wisconsin
Summary: The defending Big Ten champions come into the season with the expectation of repeating. They return Montee Ball, who was perhaps the most overlooked player in the Heisman race last season. They once again have a graduate transfer quarterback in Danny O'Brien. They should also have a ton of big guys on the lines as well. Wisconsin should cruise to the Big Ten title game, but I'm not sold on them as a truly great team. O'Brien was nowhere near the quarterback Russell Wilson was. They are downgrading at the most critical position. They lose some key players on offense like Nick Toon and Peter Konz. I expect the Badgers to be good. I don't know if they are great.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 5-3
Expected Wins: 5.8

Given these predictions, we should see Michigan and Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. Keep in mind, that the expected win totals are based off of probabilities. Every team has a chance in a game, so that chance is factored into the expected wins. Some of these teams will win more games and some will win less. I will probably have the ACC up tomorrow or sometime this weekend and I'll move onto new conferences next week.