Sizing up the other 5 conferences

There's no secret that I know the Big Ten better than every other conference, so I won't be able to go into detail as much with these other conference. I did follow the same format as before, coming up with a rubric and assigning win probabilities for each game. With regards to the probabilities, I believe that I put more of an emphasis on where I believe these teams will finish in their conference rather than looking more closely at the match ups. This has mostly to do with a lack of familiarity with some of these teams. In the Pac-12 in particular, there is a lot of uncertainty with new coaches at Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA, and Washington State, and the departures of key players like Andrew Luck, LaMichael James, and Darron Thomas. Every conference has some issues. These are just instate expected wins by the way.

Atlantic Division:
Clemson - 5.55
Florida State - 5.2
Wake Forest - 4.4
NC State - 4
Maryland - 2.8
BC - 2.05

As EDSBS would explain, picking Clemson to do anything good is just about the worst thing you can do in college football. Clemson failing is the most Clemson thing ever. However, Florida State is also a perennial disappointment. Every year, people praise their incredible talent and have them as preseason national champions, but they always flounder their way into a Russell Athletic Bowl. This is another year where Florida State is a preseason pick for national champion, but I have Clemson edging them for the title, despite having Florida State as a slight favorite in their head to head clash. The rest of the division isn't really a factor, but I have Maryland finishing above BC because the Eagles are terrible and Maryland has some top freshmen talent coming in.

Coastal Division:
Virginia Tech - 5.75
Georgia Tech - 5.2
Virginia - 4.4
Miami - 4.2
UNC - 2.65
Duke - 1.8

Virginia Tech loses David Wilson, but have Logan Thomas for another season. Besides Denard Robinson and Matt Barkley, Logan Thomas is the quarterback that I am most interested in seeing this year. Everyone knows that Virginia Tech will have a great defense, and that is what will carry them to winning that division. The big question is whether they can win the conference and whether they can defeat Clemson, who beat them twice last season. Beyond that, Georgia Tech is due for another solid season, and Miami will continue to spiral a bit amidst their booster scandal. UNC and Duke will be UNC and Duke.

SEC East:
Georgia - 5.8
South Carolina - 4.85
Florida - 4.3
Missouri - 3.95
Vanderbilt - 3.6
Tennessee - 2.85
Kentucky - 2

Georgia is once against the cream of the SEC East and the only team with a real quarterback in this division. It should be another season of beating a relatively easy schedule before getting stomped in the SEC title game. South Carolina should be better now that they have escaped Stephen Garcia's reign of terror, and they have one of the best defensive linemen in the country in Jadeveon Clowney. Florida will still struggle without having a definitive answer at quarterback. Missouri will surprise this season, propelled by true freshman, Dorial Green-Beckham. I believe that DGB will have a Sammy Watkins type effect on Mizzou. Tennessee and Kentucky will continue to be Tennessee and Kentucky.

SEC West:
Alabama - 6.55
Arkansas - 5.65
LSU - 5.5
Auburn - 3.7
Texas A&M - 3.1
Mississippi State - 3.1
Mississippi - 1.45

This is the toughest division in all of college football and is loaded at the top. With the Honey Badger no longer at LSU, the Crimson Tide get a firm grasp on the top spot, and Arkansas edges LSU. That will be a very close match up and whoever comes in second could very well be determined by that Thanksgiving Friday game. I have Arkansas edging LSU because of quarterback play, as I have Tyler Wilson as the top rated quarterback in the SEC. I don't think that the Razorbacks can compete with Alabama on the defensive and offensive fronts though. A&M will do okay against a tough schedule, but it will take them a while to adjust to the SEC. Ole Miss is still terrible.

Pac-12 North:
Oregon - 7.2
Stanford - 6.35
Washington - 4.9
California - 3.95
Washington State - 3.4
Oregon State - 2.8

Oregon will once again be the cream of the crop in the Pac-12 North. They return one of the most exciting players in the game with D'Anthony Thomas. While they lose a couple of key players in Darron Thomas and LaMichael James, Chip Kelly will have his boys at the top. Stanford loses Andrew Luck among a few other key players, but they return strong in the trenches. Stanford might be the best coached team in the conference, and they will continue to be a strong team. Washington's recruiting has taken a turn for the best under Tosh Lupoi, and I expect the Huskies to benefit. The big question for the North is how Washington State is going to do under Mike Leach. I'm not sure how much progress he is going to make in his first season.

Pac-12 South:
USC - 7.25
Arizona State - 4.6
Utah - 4.4
UCLA - 4
Arizona - 3.05
Colorado - 2.1

USC is a popular choice for the national championship and for good reason. They have loads of talent on the offensive side of the ball. It isn't even a question of whether they will win the Pac-12 South, but more if they will win the Pac-12 South with a chance at getting into the National Championship. Matt Barkley and Robert Woods will have to do work for that to happen. The rest of the conference has a lot of question marks. Arizona State, UCLA, and Arizona all have new coaches. It will be interesting to see which of those coaches will get their team to second in the division.

Big XII:
Oklahoma - 6.45
West Virginia - 5.85
Oklahoma State - 5.7
Kansas State - 5.15
Texas - 4.75
TCU - 4.45
Baylor - 4.2
Iowa State - 3.7
Texas Tech - 3.1
Kansas - 1.65

Oklahoma is the favorite to win this and they have something to prove. With Mike Stoops back in the coaching staff, they should have a better defense. Landry Jones returns for his senior year and has to prove himself if he wants to be one of the top draft picks in the 2013 NFL Draft. West Virginia really is a wild card in their first season. They lost defensive coordinator, Jeff Casteel, but they return an offense that dropped 70 on Clemson in the Orange Bowl. The Big XII isn't exactly known for their defense and the Mountaineers should be able to exploit that. Oklahoma State loses some key players, so I have them falling to third, but just barely. Kansas State has a great quarterback in Colin Klein, but they're still Kansas State. They are a dark horse to win the conference, but that's because they're Kansas State. Texas will continue to struggle as long as they struggle to fill the quarterback spot. David Ash? Case McCoy? Get it done. I think that TCU will do better than expected because they do put an emphasis on defense. They'll struggle because of youth. Baylor lost RG3, Terrance Ganaway, and Kendall Wright. They'll be decent, but they won't be as good as last year. Kansas hired Charlie Weis. That's all that needs to be said.

Do we have to?

Big East:
Louisville - 4.7
Temple - 4.45
Cincinnati - 4.3
Pittsburgh - 4.25
Connecticut - 4.05
Rutgers - 2.95
Syracuse - 2.45
South Florida - 1.85

The Big East will be tight again, but in a bad way. No one will stand out, leading us to question once against WHY DOES THE BIG EAST HAVE AN AUTOMATIC BCS BERTH? I have Louisville because of Charlie Strong. It'll be interesting to see how Temple does in their first season in the Big East. They lost their offensive coordinator, Scot Loeffler, to Auburn. Can they sustain their momentum?