Sizing up the other 5 conferences

There's no secret that I know the Big Ten better than every other conference, so I won't be able to go into detail as much with these other conference. I did follow the same format as before, coming up with a rubric and assigning win probabilities for each game. With regards to the probabilities, I believe that I put more of an emphasis on where I believe these teams will finish in their conference rather than looking more closely at the match ups. This has mostly to do with a lack of familiarity with some of these teams. In the Pac-12 in particular, there is a lot of uncertainty with new coaches at Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA, and Washington State, and the departures of key players like Andrew Luck, LaMichael James, and Darron Thomas. Every conference has some issues. These are just instate expected wins by the way.

Atlantic Division:
Clemson - 5.55
Florida State - 5.2
Wake Forest - 4.4
NC State - 4
Maryland - 2.8
BC - 2.05

As EDSBS would explain, picking Clemson to do anything good is just about the worst thing you can do in college football. Clemson failing is the most Clemson thing ever. However, Florida State is also a perennial disappointment. Every year, people praise their incredible talent and have them as preseason national champions, but they always flounder their way into a Russell Athletic Bowl. This is another year where Florida State is a preseason pick for national champion, but I have Clemson edging them for the title, despite having Florida State as a slight favorite in their head to head clash. The rest of the division isn't really a factor, but I have Maryland finishing above BC because the Eagles are terrible and Maryland has some top freshmen talent coming in.

Coastal Division:
Virginia Tech - 5.75
Georgia Tech - 5.2
Virginia - 4.4
Miami - 4.2
UNC - 2.65
Duke - 1.8

Virginia Tech loses David Wilson, but have Logan Thomas for another season. Besides Denard Robinson and Matt Barkley, Logan Thomas is the quarterback that I am most interested in seeing this year. Everyone knows that Virginia Tech will have a great defense, and that is what will carry them to winning that division. The big question is whether they can win the conference and whether they can defeat Clemson, who beat them twice last season. Beyond that, Georgia Tech is due for another solid season, and Miami will continue to spiral a bit amidst their booster scandal. UNC and Duke will be UNC and Duke.

SEC East:
Georgia - 5.8
South Carolina - 4.85
Florida - 4.3
Missouri - 3.95
Vanderbilt - 3.6
Tennessee - 2.85
Kentucky - 2

Georgia is once against the cream of the SEC East and the only team with a real quarterback in this division. It should be another season of beating a relatively easy schedule before getting stomped in the SEC title game. South Carolina should be better now that they have escaped Stephen Garcia's reign of terror, and they have one of the best defensive linemen in the country in Jadeveon Clowney. Florida will still struggle without having a definitive answer at quarterback. Missouri will surprise this season, propelled by true freshman, Dorial Green-Beckham. I believe that DGB will have a Sammy Watkins type effect on Mizzou. Tennessee and Kentucky will continue to be Tennessee and Kentucky.

SEC West:
Alabama - 6.55
Arkansas - 5.65
LSU - 5.5
Auburn - 3.7
Texas A&M - 3.1
Mississippi State - 3.1
Mississippi - 1.45

This is the toughest division in all of college football and is loaded at the top. With the Honey Badger no longer at LSU, the Crimson Tide get a firm grasp on the top spot, and Arkansas edges LSU. That will be a very close match up and whoever comes in second could very well be determined by that Thanksgiving Friday game. I have Arkansas edging LSU because of quarterback play, as I have Tyler Wilson as the top rated quarterback in the SEC. I don't think that the Razorbacks can compete with Alabama on the defensive and offensive fronts though. A&M will do okay against a tough schedule, but it will take them a while to adjust to the SEC. Ole Miss is still terrible.

Pac-12 North:
Oregon - 7.2
Stanford - 6.35
Washington - 4.9
California - 3.95
Washington State - 3.4
Oregon State - 2.8

Oregon will once again be the cream of the crop in the Pac-12 North. They return one of the most exciting players in the game with D'Anthony Thomas. While they lose a couple of key players in Darron Thomas and LaMichael James, Chip Kelly will have his boys at the top. Stanford loses Andrew Luck among a few other key players, but they return strong in the trenches. Stanford might be the best coached team in the conference, and they will continue to be a strong team. Washington's recruiting has taken a turn for the best under Tosh Lupoi, and I expect the Huskies to benefit. The big question for the North is how Washington State is going to do under Mike Leach. I'm not sure how much progress he is going to make in his first season.

Pac-12 South:
USC - 7.25
Arizona State - 4.6
Utah - 4.4
UCLA - 4
Arizona - 3.05
Colorado - 2.1

USC is a popular choice for the national championship and for good reason. They have loads of talent on the offensive side of the ball. It isn't even a question of whether they will win the Pac-12 South, but more if they will win the Pac-12 South with a chance at getting into the National Championship. Matt Barkley and Robert Woods will have to do work for that to happen. The rest of the conference has a lot of question marks. Arizona State, UCLA, and Arizona all have new coaches. It will be interesting to see which of those coaches will get their team to second in the division.

Big XII:
Oklahoma - 6.45
West Virginia - 5.85
Oklahoma State - 5.7
Kansas State - 5.15
Texas - 4.75
TCU - 4.45
Baylor - 4.2
Iowa State - 3.7
Texas Tech - 3.1
Kansas - 1.65

Oklahoma is the favorite to win this and they have something to prove. With Mike Stoops back in the coaching staff, they should have a better defense. Landry Jones returns for his senior year and has to prove himself if he wants to be one of the top draft picks in the 2013 NFL Draft. West Virginia really is a wild card in their first season. They lost defensive coordinator, Jeff Casteel, but they return an offense that dropped 70 on Clemson in the Orange Bowl. The Big XII isn't exactly known for their defense and the Mountaineers should be able to exploit that. Oklahoma State loses some key players, so I have them falling to third, but just barely. Kansas State has a great quarterback in Colin Klein, but they're still Kansas State. They are a dark horse to win the conference, but that's because they're Kansas State. Texas will continue to struggle as long as they struggle to fill the quarterback spot. David Ash? Case McCoy? Get it done. I think that TCU will do better than expected because they do put an emphasis on defense. They'll struggle because of youth. Baylor lost RG3, Terrance Ganaway, and Kendall Wright. They'll be decent, but they won't be as good as last year. Kansas hired Charlie Weis. That's all that needs to be said.

Do we have to?

Big East:
Louisville - 4.7
Temple - 4.45
Cincinnati - 4.3
Pittsburgh - 4.25
Connecticut - 4.05
Rutgers - 2.95
Syracuse - 2.45
South Florida - 1.85

The Big East will be tight again, but in a bad way. No one will stand out, leading us to question once against WHY DOES THE BIG EAST HAVE AN AUTOMATIC BCS BERTH? I have Louisville because of Charlie Strong. It'll be interesting to see how Temple does in their first season in the Big East. They lost their offensive coordinator, Scot Loeffler, to Auburn. Can they sustain their momentum?

Sizing Up The Big Ten

When I look at teams within a conference, I usually gauge them by how many conference wins they are going to have. The problem is that you can't really figure out how a team is going to win until you make a full conference schedule rubric. That is what I did for the Big Ten, and what I will try to do for the rest of the conferences, or at least the ones that matter.

The Process: Basically, I went through each game and assigned a probability that the home team wins. This probability, or 1 minus this probability for the away team, is summed up to get the expected wins. The probabilities for the games were assigned by looking at games from previous years, factoring in player attrition, as well as where the game is played. I wanted to use as much of the available information possible to gauge how many teams each team in the Big Ten would win.

Illinois
Summary: Illinois had a pretty impressive start to last season, winning their first seven games of the season. Nathan Scheelhaase looked like the next Juice Williams. Everything was going right until everything went wrong. The Illini were killed in their last 6 games, even losing to lowly Minnesota. The collapse cost coach Ron Zook his job. Furthermore, Illinois loses key players like Whitney Mercilus and AJ Jenkins. They will be a different team in 2012, and Todd Graham seems to have brought a new energy to the program. The question is whether they can build off of last year or whether they will have to rebuild.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 2-6
Expected Wins: 3.65

Indiana
Summary: Indiana was the worst team in the Big Ten last year, and not much should change. They struggled to find a quarterback to lead them, but by the end of the season, freshman Tre Roberson showed that he was worth of the position. Despite the lack of talent around him, Roberson could be one of the more exciting players in the Big Ten. Don't expect them to be a much better team than last year though.
Upside: 0-8
Downside: 0-8
Expected Wins: 1.10

Iowa
Summary: After defeating Michigan last season, Iowa controlled their own destiny as far as winning the Legends Division of the Big Ten. They ultimately squandered that opportunity dropping games to Michigan State and Nebraska. That is not to mention their unforgivable loss at Minnesota. The offseason presented Angry Iowa Running Back Hating God (AIRBHG) more chances to smite the Hawkeyes. Leading rusher Marcus Coker, who was supposed to be the mainstay of the offense, transferred to Stony Brook following an allegation of sexual assault. Back up Barkley Hill tore his ACL. Sophomore Damon Bullock and Freshman Greg Garmon will have to step up for Iowa to have any chance this year. Regardless, like any Kirk Ferentz team, Iowa should be solid again.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 2-6
Expected Wins: 4.00

Michigan
Summary: In Brady Hoke's first season, Michigan marched their way to a BCS victory over Virginia Tech. Although Hoke will say he was disappointed that Michigan did not win the Big Ten, it is hard to say that his first season was anything but an overwhelming success. Hoke has changed the culture at Michigan and raised the bar of expectation. With Denard Robinson commanding the offense for his second year under Al Borges's offense, Michigan should see a dramatic improvement in the offense due to Robinson's increased comfort. The Wolverines lose key guys on both sides of the line, but what is left seems to be overlooked by the national media. Michigan is the favorite in the Legends Division for good reason.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 5-3
Expected Wins: 5.95

Michigan State
Summary: The reigning Legends Division champions have lost a lot from last year's team with players like Kirk Cousins, BJ Cunningham, Keshawn Martin, and Jerel Worthy. Despite this, the Spartans should still be one of the contenders for the Legends Division as they bring back a strong linebacking core and defensive secondary. Andrew Maxwell will be asked for a lot in his first season as a starter, but his load will be lightened by running back LeVeon Bell and a strong offensive line. There are still a lot of questions to be answered and a visit by Ohio State and visits to arch-rival Michigan and Wisconsin will not make things any easier. It will take another great coaching job by Mark Dantonio for Sparty to get back to Indianapolis.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 4-4
Expected Wins: 5.60

Minnesota
Summary: Despite being horrible last season, the Gophers managed to win two Big Ten games over Iowa and Illinois. MarQueis Gray will again be asked to do a lot, which won't be easy. Jerry Kill's job may be on the line, and Minnesota would be wise to take care of business at home. It will be the road, however, that will continue to be the overwhelming challenge. The team should be better than last year, but that's not saying much.
Upside: 2-6
Downside: 0-8
Expected Wins: 1.4


Nebraska
Summary: Bo Pelini and his Nebraska Cornhuskers did not exactly enjoy their first season in the Big Ten. They were expected to cruise to the Big Ten title but were thumped in visits to Michigan and Wisconsin and dropped a shocker to Northwestern at home. While they get Michigan and Wisconsin at home this season, it is unlikely that much has changed from last year in those games. Furthermore, trips to East Lansing and Columbus promise to test the Cornhuskers title credentials. Of course, much of the load will be entrusted to the backfield duo of Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead. Burkhead should have another solid year, potentially entering the Heisman discussion if Nebraska can put together some big wins. Martinez continues to be a worry due to his poor passing. Nebraska also loses some key players on defense including Jared Crick, Lavonte David and Alfonzo Dennard. Signs point to another tough year in Lincoln.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 3-5
Expected Wins: 4.60

Northwestern
Summary: Northwestern loses senior leaders in quarterback Dan Persa and wide receiver Jeremy Ebert, but they have a potential big time quarterback in Kain Colter and picked up a big time receiver in Kyle Prater, who transferred from USC. They also have a decent running back in Mike Trumpy, who is coming off a knee injury. Northwestern is never the most talented team, but Pat Fitzgerald always get this team to play tough, hard-nosed football. The Wildcats have plenty of winnable games in the conference beyond the trips to Ann Arbor and East Lansing. Game to game, Northwestern is the most unpredictable team in the Big Ten.
Upside: 6-2
Downside: 1-7
Expected Wins: 3.75

Ohio State
Summary: With Urban Meyer taking over the reins, Ohio State fans should expect a drastic change from the days of Tresselball. While Tressel had some great athletes playing quarterback like Troy Smith and Terrelle Pryor, he never got the most out of their legs. Expect Braxton Miller to thrive in Urban Meyer's spread offense. There will be some problems on offense with two of the top offensive linemen gone as well as the starting running back and top wide receiver. The Buckeyes will have to replace these weapons. Defensively, they should be faster and expect a freshman or two to make an impact. I don't expect Ohio State to be fully what Urban Meyer wants out of his team until year 2 or 3, but this team will be one of the best in the Big Ten, despite the bowl ban. This season should allow Meyer to build to the future.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 4-4
Expected Wins: 5.25

Penn State
Summary: Penn State is another tough team to predict in light of the Sandusky scandal. The Nittany Lions have lost many key players including Silas Redd, the star running back. While I expect Bill O'Brien to get improved out of Matt McGloin, that should not come close to offsetting the loss of Redd. Penn State will continue to be tough, but they will not be Joe Paterno's Penn State. They remind me a lot of the 2007 Michigan team that was stripped of much of its talent, following a coaching and system transition. There is a lot of downside to this team, and it's hard to know what will be seen as a successful season.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 1-7
Expected Wins: 3.55

Purdue
Summary: Purdue is, for many people, the sleeper in the Leaders Division. With Ohio State and Penn State ineligible for the Big Ten Championship game, a lot of people believe that Purdue might have a chance of sneaking past Wisconsin into that game. Purdue was decent last year, finishing 4-4 and above that miserable Ohio State team that the Boilermakers beat in West Lafayette. Ralph Bolden and Caleb TerBush will have to have big seasons for Purdue to even come close to the title game. Luckily, they have their two toughest opponents, Michigan and Wisconsin, at home. The defense should be amongst the best in the Big Ten with Kawann Short leading the line and Ricardo Allen leading the secondary. This is Danny Hope's best team since taking over.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 1-7
Expected Wins: 3.35

Wisconsin
Summary: The defending Big Ten champions come into the season with the expectation of repeating. They return Montee Ball, who was perhaps the most overlooked player in the Heisman race last season. They once again have a graduate transfer quarterback in Danny O'Brien. They should also have a ton of big guys on the lines as well. Wisconsin should cruise to the Big Ten title game, but I'm not sold on them as a truly great team. O'Brien was nowhere near the quarterback Russell Wilson was. They are downgrading at the most critical position. They lose some key players on offense like Nick Toon and Peter Konz. I expect the Badgers to be good. I don't know if they are great.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 5-3
Expected Wins: 5.8

Given these predictions, we should see Michigan and Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. Keep in mind, that the expected win totals are based off of probabilities. Every team has a chance in a game, so that chance is factored into the expected wins. Some of these teams will win more games and some will win less. I will probably have the ACC up tomorrow or sometime this weekend and I'll move onto new conferences next week.

Sizing Up LSU, Post-Mathieu

Mathieu let down a lot of people, but most importantly, himself

Today, LSU notified the college football world that they had kicked star cornerback, Tyrann Mathieu, off the team. This is a huge blow to the Tigers as Mathieu was one of the best players in the country last year, making it to New York as a Heisman finalist. LSU was supposed to challenge for the National Championship again, ranked #1 in the preseason USA Today Coaches' poll. It's pretty clear now that the expectations will have to be brought very much in check.

Before the Mathieu news, LSU looked like a leading contender for the National Championship. They host Alabama at home this year, and their out of conference schedule is laughable (as most SEC OOC schedules are). Without Mathieu, the winning probabilities have definitely changed. While LSU might still be favorites in every game besides the aforementioned tilt against the Crimson Tide, they aren't as big a favorites as they were before. Let's walk through the schedule:

North Texas - Like most SEC teams, LSU's out of conference schedule is kind of a joke. The Mean Green should not be a threat to LSU regardless of who is playing. LSU losing this game would be as shocking as Michigan losing to Appalachian State.
Pre-Mathieu: 99%
Post-Mathieu: 99%

Washington - Washington is a mid-level Pac-12 team. They might continue to improve, especially since their recruiting is getting better with Super Recruiter, Tosh Lupoi, aboard. They should, however, not provide much of a challenge to a Mathieu-less Tigers.
Pre-Mathieu: 90%
Post-Mathieu: 85%

Idaho - I'm not sure how much LSU is paying Idaho to visit Baton Rouge, but this should be an easy win. The Vandals were the worst team in the WAC last season, and there really shouldn't be an expectation for them to put up much of a fight against the National Runner-Ups.
Pre-Mathieu: 99%
Post-Mathieu: 99%

@Auburn - Auburn did not have a great 2011, after losing Cam Newton and Nick Fairley to the draft. These Tigers finished 8-4 last season and they still have issues at the QB position. The main advantage that Auburn will have is that this game will take place at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Often times last season, LSU looked laggy away from Death Valley, and it was a big play by Mathieu that gave them the emotional lift to rise above. That little extra that LSU might need, that's gone. LSU will still be the favorites, but not as big as they would have been before.
Pre-Mathieu: 80%
Post-Mathieu: 60%

Towson - The last out of conference game on LSU's schedule, and this is another cupcake. Really not much more that needs to be said.
Pre-Mathieu: 99%
Post Mathieu: 99%

@Florida - Florida really has not been the same offensively since Tim Tebow went to the draft. While they continue to stock pile talent, they are getting about as much use out of the talent as Notre Dame. There still is no answer at the quarterback position. At the same time, their defense remained one of the best in the country. Last year, Florida was 8th in total defense, and and 20th in the country in scoring defense. With both teams struggling offensively, this could be another SEC scissorfest. Again, like against Auburn, not having the emotional lift that a Mathieu can provide should hurt LSU.
Pre-Mathieu: 75%
Post Mathieu: 60%

South Carolina - The Gamecocks had one of the best defenses in the country and they retain star defensive end, Jadeveon Clowney. They were 3rd in total defense and 11th in scoring defense. The problem for South Carolina, like with most SEC teams, is that the offense struggled due to poor quarterback play. On offense, they return Marcus Lattimore and have an emerging quarterback in Connor Shaw. They don't have to worry about the inconsistencies of Stephen Garcia anymore. This could be a close game. It could be a tough game for LSU if this falls on the offense.
Pre-Mathieu: 75%
Post-Mathieu: 65%

@Texas A&M - The Aggies are hard to gauge because we don't know how Kevin Sumlin's offense is going to translate to the defense heavy SEC. A&M also loses quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, but having a clean slate might be for the best with the new system. Furthermore, Kyle Field is notoriously one of the toughest places to play in college football and prides itself on the 11th man. A&M had a top offense last season that return Ryan Swope but will need someone to emerge at the quarterback spot. LSU should be able to handle a young quarterback.
Pre-Mathieu: 90%
Post-Mathieu: 85%

Alabama - Before Mathieu got kicked off the team, this would have been once again one of the most hyped games of the season. Despite LSU failure in last year's championship game, they return a lot of players and were supposed to be as strong. Without their star playmaker, that is probably not the case. Bama doesn't rebuild, they reload. They're just as strong as last season and should be one of the favorites for the national championship. Before this game, it might have been a coin flip situation with a slight edge to Alabama. Now, you have to say that Alabama should be a big favorite.
Pre-Mathieu: 45%
Post-Mathieu: 20%

Mississippi St - This is a game LSU should win. Mississippi State is not a good SEC team and they have to go to Death Valley to face LSU. There really shouldn't be much change.
Pre-Mathieu: 90%
Post-Mathieu: 85%

Ole Miss - Ole Miss is the worst team in the conference, save Kentucky but that doesn't really count. LSU should easily take care of business against the Rebels.
Pre-Mathieu: 95%
Post-Mathieu: 92.5%

@Arkansas - Last year's tilt at Death Valley was close for three quarters before LSU pulled away. While the Razorbacks lost their top receivers, they return one of the SEC's best quarterbacks in Tyler Wilson. They also have the tank, Knile Davis, at running back. The defense was not good, but even if it improves a little bit, it could be huge for the Razorbacks. I expect that the coaching change from Petrino to John L Smith should have a minimal effect. This game is in Fayetteville and Arkansas should be the favorite.
Pre-Mathieu: 55%
Post-Mathieu: 40%

Pre-Mathieu Expected Wins: 9.92 wins
Post-Mathieu Expected Wins: 9.095

So basically in this completely non-scientific method of trying to find LSU's win expectancy, Mathieu is worth a game. There's no game that LSU couldn't win before and can't win now, but the odds of each game has changed. LSU could still go undefeated, but that seems unlikely. They were a 10-12 win team before, so it makes sense that they would be a 9-11 win team now. They have a tough schedule and games that might have been blowouts before could be close now. It's up to Les Miles to make it not a factor.