Sizing up the other 5 conferences

There's no secret that I know the Big Ten better than every other conference, so I won't be able to go into detail as much with these other conference. I did follow the same format as before, coming up with a rubric and assigning win probabilities for each game. With regards to the probabilities, I believe that I put more of an emphasis on where I believe these teams will finish in their conference rather than looking more closely at the match ups. This has mostly to do with a lack of familiarity with some of these teams. In the Pac-12 in particular, there is a lot of uncertainty with new coaches at Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA, and Washington State, and the departures of key players like Andrew Luck, LaMichael James, and Darron Thomas. Every conference has some issues. These are just instate expected wins by the way.

Atlantic Division:
Clemson - 5.55
Florida State - 5.2
Wake Forest - 4.4
NC State - 4
Maryland - 2.8
BC - 2.05

As EDSBS would explain, picking Clemson to do anything good is just about the worst thing you can do in college football. Clemson failing is the most Clemson thing ever. However, Florida State is also a perennial disappointment. Every year, people praise their incredible talent and have them as preseason national champions, but they always flounder their way into a Russell Athletic Bowl. This is another year where Florida State is a preseason pick for national champion, but I have Clemson edging them for the title, despite having Florida State as a slight favorite in their head to head clash. The rest of the division isn't really a factor, but I have Maryland finishing above BC because the Eagles are terrible and Maryland has some top freshmen talent coming in.

Coastal Division:
Virginia Tech - 5.75
Georgia Tech - 5.2
Virginia - 4.4
Miami - 4.2
UNC - 2.65
Duke - 1.8

Virginia Tech loses David Wilson, but have Logan Thomas for another season. Besides Denard Robinson and Matt Barkley, Logan Thomas is the quarterback that I am most interested in seeing this year. Everyone knows that Virginia Tech will have a great defense, and that is what will carry them to winning that division. The big question is whether they can win the conference and whether they can defeat Clemson, who beat them twice last season. Beyond that, Georgia Tech is due for another solid season, and Miami will continue to spiral a bit amidst their booster scandal. UNC and Duke will be UNC and Duke.

SEC East:
Georgia - 5.8
South Carolina - 4.85
Florida - 4.3
Missouri - 3.95
Vanderbilt - 3.6
Tennessee - 2.85
Kentucky - 2

Georgia is once against the cream of the SEC East and the only team with a real quarterback in this division. It should be another season of beating a relatively easy schedule before getting stomped in the SEC title game. South Carolina should be better now that they have escaped Stephen Garcia's reign of terror, and they have one of the best defensive linemen in the country in Jadeveon Clowney. Florida will still struggle without having a definitive answer at quarterback. Missouri will surprise this season, propelled by true freshman, Dorial Green-Beckham. I believe that DGB will have a Sammy Watkins type effect on Mizzou. Tennessee and Kentucky will continue to be Tennessee and Kentucky.

SEC West:
Alabama - 6.55
Arkansas - 5.65
LSU - 5.5
Auburn - 3.7
Texas A&M - 3.1
Mississippi State - 3.1
Mississippi - 1.45

This is the toughest division in all of college football and is loaded at the top. With the Honey Badger no longer at LSU, the Crimson Tide get a firm grasp on the top spot, and Arkansas edges LSU. That will be a very close match up and whoever comes in second could very well be determined by that Thanksgiving Friday game. I have Arkansas edging LSU because of quarterback play, as I have Tyler Wilson as the top rated quarterback in the SEC. I don't think that the Razorbacks can compete with Alabama on the defensive and offensive fronts though. A&M will do okay against a tough schedule, but it will take them a while to adjust to the SEC. Ole Miss is still terrible.

Pac-12 North:
Oregon - 7.2
Stanford - 6.35
Washington - 4.9
California - 3.95
Washington State - 3.4
Oregon State - 2.8

Oregon will once again be the cream of the crop in the Pac-12 North. They return one of the most exciting players in the game with D'Anthony Thomas. While they lose a couple of key players in Darron Thomas and LaMichael James, Chip Kelly will have his boys at the top. Stanford loses Andrew Luck among a few other key players, but they return strong in the trenches. Stanford might be the best coached team in the conference, and they will continue to be a strong team. Washington's recruiting has taken a turn for the best under Tosh Lupoi, and I expect the Huskies to benefit. The big question for the North is how Washington State is going to do under Mike Leach. I'm not sure how much progress he is going to make in his first season.

Pac-12 South:
USC - 7.25
Arizona State - 4.6
Utah - 4.4
UCLA - 4
Arizona - 3.05
Colorado - 2.1

USC is a popular choice for the national championship and for good reason. They have loads of talent on the offensive side of the ball. It isn't even a question of whether they will win the Pac-12 South, but more if they will win the Pac-12 South with a chance at getting into the National Championship. Matt Barkley and Robert Woods will have to do work for that to happen. The rest of the conference has a lot of question marks. Arizona State, UCLA, and Arizona all have new coaches. It will be interesting to see which of those coaches will get their team to second in the division.

Big XII:
Oklahoma - 6.45
West Virginia - 5.85
Oklahoma State - 5.7
Kansas State - 5.15
Texas - 4.75
TCU - 4.45
Baylor - 4.2
Iowa State - 3.7
Texas Tech - 3.1
Kansas - 1.65

Oklahoma is the favorite to win this and they have something to prove. With Mike Stoops back in the coaching staff, they should have a better defense. Landry Jones returns for his senior year and has to prove himself if he wants to be one of the top draft picks in the 2013 NFL Draft. West Virginia really is a wild card in their first season. They lost defensive coordinator, Jeff Casteel, but they return an offense that dropped 70 on Clemson in the Orange Bowl. The Big XII isn't exactly known for their defense and the Mountaineers should be able to exploit that. Oklahoma State loses some key players, so I have them falling to third, but just barely. Kansas State has a great quarterback in Colin Klein, but they're still Kansas State. They are a dark horse to win the conference, but that's because they're Kansas State. Texas will continue to struggle as long as they struggle to fill the quarterback spot. David Ash? Case McCoy? Get it done. I think that TCU will do better than expected because they do put an emphasis on defense. They'll struggle because of youth. Baylor lost RG3, Terrance Ganaway, and Kendall Wright. They'll be decent, but they won't be as good as last year. Kansas hired Charlie Weis. That's all that needs to be said.

Do we have to?

Big East:
Louisville - 4.7
Temple - 4.45
Cincinnati - 4.3
Pittsburgh - 4.25
Connecticut - 4.05
Rutgers - 2.95
Syracuse - 2.45
South Florida - 1.85

The Big East will be tight again, but in a bad way. No one will stand out, leading us to question once against WHY DOES THE BIG EAST HAVE AN AUTOMATIC BCS BERTH? I have Louisville because of Charlie Strong. It'll be interesting to see how Temple does in their first season in the Big East. They lost their offensive coordinator, Scot Loeffler, to Auburn. Can they sustain their momentum?

A Fulmer Cup Follow Up

I wanted to write a follow up to my Fulmer Cup post. The all time standings for the Fulmer Cup can be found here. Last time, I looked at how the conferences broke down. We found that the SEC isn't any worse than the Big XII and the Big Ten, while the ACC, Pac-12, and Big East were better at limiting their crimes rates.

Looking at the schools individually, we see that SEC has 7 of the top 20 schools. That's not even including Missouri who enters the conference this Fall. The Big Ten has 4 schools in the Top 20 while the ACC and Pac 12 each had 2 schools. For all of the problems that the Big XII has, they're losing their only Top 20 school in Missouri. However, they're inheriting West Virginia and TCU who are in the top 20.

I think another sign of problems is if a school is on the Fulmer Cup board every single year. The four schools to score every single year were Florida, South Carolina, Iowa State, and Kansas State. That's including 2012, so a school like Nebraska can appear on this list later. The habitual aspect of this suggests that Florida and South Carolina, in particular, have some major issues. Iowa State has had one bad year, but hasn't scored very high for the most part. Kansas State is the same way.

Also, if you add up the totals, the SEC is far in away the worst conference for crime. They have a 210 point advantage over the Big Ten and Big XII. While the gap between the Big Ten/Big XII and the other three major conferences is large, it is not nearly as large as that. What this tells me is that the SEC have had some years that have been very bad for crime, which we can see from the conference's 3 Fulmer Cups.

Clearly though, it's worrying that there might be a connection between big football and crime. For me, crime is unacceptable behavior no matter who the player(s) are and you've got to wonder whether a lax culture is the cause of this. It will be interesting to see how/if things change in the future.

The Fulmer Cup by Conference

I shouldn't be happy about this, but I nailed the number of points that Arizona would be given in the Fulmer Cup standings as a result of the arrests last week. In the EDSBS post, Spencer mentions something about Mizzou embracing the culture of the SEC with the address. It got me thinking, is the SEC really that much worse than any other major conference?

Let's take a look (in reverse chronological order):
2012 (in progress)
Big XII - 50
SEC - 26
Pac 12 - 25
Big Ten - 6
ACC - 4

2011 omitted due to insufficient data

2010
SEC - 58
Big XII - 56
ACC - 43
Pac 12 - 43
Big Ten - 31
Big East - 11

2009
Big XII - 37
SEC - 36
Big East - 33
Big Ten - 31
ACC - 20
Pac 12 - 15

2008
SEC - 105
Big XII - 62
Big Ten - 50
ACC - 46
Big East - 37
Pac 12 - 33'

2007
Big Ten - 86
SEC - 65
Big XII - 33
Big East - 27
ACC - 11
Pac 12 - 6

2006
Big Ten - 34
SEC - 34
Big XII - 14
ACC - 9
Pac 12 - 6
Big East - 3

While there are some SEC schools that may have trouble, there are plenty of others that do not have problems. The SEC as a whole tends to be on the higher side of crime but so do the Big Ten and the Big XII. It's also important to note that big point tallies are usually racked up at once rather than with a lot of smaller offense. It seems, for the most part, that these crimes are a wake up call for the program and that the program does a better job of keeping their students in line.

In conclusion, I don't think the SEC has a problem relative to the other conference. I do think they could do more to keep their athletes out of trouble. I would say the same things about the Big Ten and Big XII as well though.

The SEC Schedules of the New Boys

When the Big Ten admitted Nebraska into the conference, they had them scheduled against the Grand Poobahs of Big Ten schools. Nebraska faced trips to Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan, and had the daunting task of hosting Ohio State and Michigan State. The funny thing is that despite this tough schedule, Nebraska was picked by quite a few to win the Big Ten.

Much of this was due to a lack of familiarity. Nebraska had enjoyed a lot of success in the Big XII and people believed that they could bring that to the Big Ten. That perception has proven to be false. While Nebraska went a respectable 3-2 against those teams, they finished third in the Big Ten Legends Division, taking two beatings from Wisconsin and Michigan.

I bring this up as a precursor to the SEC schedules as they welcome Missouri and Texas A&M to the conference.

It appears that neither is getting the murderer's row of schedules. While each will face the tough teams in their division, as every team has to, neither is facing the top teams in the other division. Texas A&M, being placed in the West Division, will have to face Arkansas, Alabama, and LSU, but it misses out on both Georgia and South Carolina. Similarly, Mizzou only has to face LSU of the three best West Division teams. Their schedules are, at worst, manageable.

Neither of these teams should be expected to win the SEC any time soon, but their transition should be a lot easier than Nebraska's transition to the Big Ten. While they adjust to their new opponents, they won't have to worry about playing the depth of competition that Nebraska has faced. This is one thing that Missouri and Texas A&M can keep a sound mind over.

Championship Week

I was going to write about The Game and the Iron Bowl last week, two rivalries that probably deserved posts, but you really can't do them justice. For any people associated with those schools, it means so much. All the aspects of the rivalry, the competition, the hatred, the tradition, you can't easily put in words, especially before the game.

This week is championship week. We have conference championships galore. We have the MAC Championship tonight. We have several other championship games tomorrow, including the ACC, Big Ten, and the SEC. We also have the Bedlam Football Game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, which will serve to decide the Big Twelve Champion. It should be an exciting day of games.

I don't know what exactly I'll be doing, but I'm thinking of heading to the Baseball Tavern. They host several of the schools that will be participating in games tomorrow so it seems like the perfect place to set up shop.