Sizing Up The Big Ten

When I look at teams within a conference, I usually gauge them by how many conference wins they are going to have. The problem is that you can't really figure out how a team is going to win until you make a full conference schedule rubric. That is what I did for the Big Ten, and what I will try to do for the rest of the conferences, or at least the ones that matter.

The Process: Basically, I went through each game and assigned a probability that the home team wins. This probability, or 1 minus this probability for the away team, is summed up to get the expected wins. The probabilities for the games were assigned by looking at games from previous years, factoring in player attrition, as well as where the game is played. I wanted to use as much of the available information possible to gauge how many teams each team in the Big Ten would win.

Illinois
Summary: Illinois had a pretty impressive start to last season, winning their first seven games of the season. Nathan Scheelhaase looked like the next Juice Williams. Everything was going right until everything went wrong. The Illini were killed in their last 6 games, even losing to lowly Minnesota. The collapse cost coach Ron Zook his job. Furthermore, Illinois loses key players like Whitney Mercilus and AJ Jenkins. They will be a different team in 2012, and Todd Graham seems to have brought a new energy to the program. The question is whether they can build off of last year or whether they will have to rebuild.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 2-6
Expected Wins: 3.65

Indiana
Summary: Indiana was the worst team in the Big Ten last year, and not much should change. They struggled to find a quarterback to lead them, but by the end of the season, freshman Tre Roberson showed that he was worth of the position. Despite the lack of talent around him, Roberson could be one of the more exciting players in the Big Ten. Don't expect them to be a much better team than last year though.
Upside: 0-8
Downside: 0-8
Expected Wins: 1.10

Iowa
Summary: After defeating Michigan last season, Iowa controlled their own destiny as far as winning the Legends Division of the Big Ten. They ultimately squandered that opportunity dropping games to Michigan State and Nebraska. That is not to mention their unforgivable loss at Minnesota. The offseason presented Angry Iowa Running Back Hating God (AIRBHG) more chances to smite the Hawkeyes. Leading rusher Marcus Coker, who was supposed to be the mainstay of the offense, transferred to Stony Brook following an allegation of sexual assault. Back up Barkley Hill tore his ACL. Sophomore Damon Bullock and Freshman Greg Garmon will have to step up for Iowa to have any chance this year. Regardless, like any Kirk Ferentz team, Iowa should be solid again.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 2-6
Expected Wins: 4.00

Michigan
Summary: In Brady Hoke's first season, Michigan marched their way to a BCS victory over Virginia Tech. Although Hoke will say he was disappointed that Michigan did not win the Big Ten, it is hard to say that his first season was anything but an overwhelming success. Hoke has changed the culture at Michigan and raised the bar of expectation. With Denard Robinson commanding the offense for his second year under Al Borges's offense, Michigan should see a dramatic improvement in the offense due to Robinson's increased comfort. The Wolverines lose key guys on both sides of the line, but what is left seems to be overlooked by the national media. Michigan is the favorite in the Legends Division for good reason.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 5-3
Expected Wins: 5.95

Michigan State
Summary: The reigning Legends Division champions have lost a lot from last year's team with players like Kirk Cousins, BJ Cunningham, Keshawn Martin, and Jerel Worthy. Despite this, the Spartans should still be one of the contenders for the Legends Division as they bring back a strong linebacking core and defensive secondary. Andrew Maxwell will be asked for a lot in his first season as a starter, but his load will be lightened by running back LeVeon Bell and a strong offensive line. There are still a lot of questions to be answered and a visit by Ohio State and visits to arch-rival Michigan and Wisconsin will not make things any easier. It will take another great coaching job by Mark Dantonio for Sparty to get back to Indianapolis.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 4-4
Expected Wins: 5.60

Minnesota
Summary: Despite being horrible last season, the Gophers managed to win two Big Ten games over Iowa and Illinois. MarQueis Gray will again be asked to do a lot, which won't be easy. Jerry Kill's job may be on the line, and Minnesota would be wise to take care of business at home. It will be the road, however, that will continue to be the overwhelming challenge. The team should be better than last year, but that's not saying much.
Upside: 2-6
Downside: 0-8
Expected Wins: 1.4


Nebraska
Summary: Bo Pelini and his Nebraska Cornhuskers did not exactly enjoy their first season in the Big Ten. They were expected to cruise to the Big Ten title but were thumped in visits to Michigan and Wisconsin and dropped a shocker to Northwestern at home. While they get Michigan and Wisconsin at home this season, it is unlikely that much has changed from last year in those games. Furthermore, trips to East Lansing and Columbus promise to test the Cornhuskers title credentials. Of course, much of the load will be entrusted to the backfield duo of Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead. Burkhead should have another solid year, potentially entering the Heisman discussion if Nebraska can put together some big wins. Martinez continues to be a worry due to his poor passing. Nebraska also loses some key players on defense including Jared Crick, Lavonte David and Alfonzo Dennard. Signs point to another tough year in Lincoln.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 3-5
Expected Wins: 4.60

Northwestern
Summary: Northwestern loses senior leaders in quarterback Dan Persa and wide receiver Jeremy Ebert, but they have a potential big time quarterback in Kain Colter and picked up a big time receiver in Kyle Prater, who transferred from USC. They also have a decent running back in Mike Trumpy, who is coming off a knee injury. Northwestern is never the most talented team, but Pat Fitzgerald always get this team to play tough, hard-nosed football. The Wildcats have plenty of winnable games in the conference beyond the trips to Ann Arbor and East Lansing. Game to game, Northwestern is the most unpredictable team in the Big Ten.
Upside: 6-2
Downside: 1-7
Expected Wins: 3.75

Ohio State
Summary: With Urban Meyer taking over the reins, Ohio State fans should expect a drastic change from the days of Tresselball. While Tressel had some great athletes playing quarterback like Troy Smith and Terrelle Pryor, he never got the most out of their legs. Expect Braxton Miller to thrive in Urban Meyer's spread offense. There will be some problems on offense with two of the top offensive linemen gone as well as the starting running back and top wide receiver. The Buckeyes will have to replace these weapons. Defensively, they should be faster and expect a freshman or two to make an impact. I don't expect Ohio State to be fully what Urban Meyer wants out of his team until year 2 or 3, but this team will be one of the best in the Big Ten, despite the bowl ban. This season should allow Meyer to build to the future.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 4-4
Expected Wins: 5.25

Penn State
Summary: Penn State is another tough team to predict in light of the Sandusky scandal. The Nittany Lions have lost many key players including Silas Redd, the star running back. While I expect Bill O'Brien to get improved out of Matt McGloin, that should not come close to offsetting the loss of Redd. Penn State will continue to be tough, but they will not be Joe Paterno's Penn State. They remind me a lot of the 2007 Michigan team that was stripped of much of its talent, following a coaching and system transition. There is a lot of downside to this team, and it's hard to know what will be seen as a successful season.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 1-7
Expected Wins: 3.55

Purdue
Summary: Purdue is, for many people, the sleeper in the Leaders Division. With Ohio State and Penn State ineligible for the Big Ten Championship game, a lot of people believe that Purdue might have a chance of sneaking past Wisconsin into that game. Purdue was decent last year, finishing 4-4 and above that miserable Ohio State team that the Boilermakers beat in West Lafayette. Ralph Bolden and Caleb TerBush will have to have big seasons for Purdue to even come close to the title game. Luckily, they have their two toughest opponents, Michigan and Wisconsin, at home. The defense should be amongst the best in the Big Ten with Kawann Short leading the line and Ricardo Allen leading the secondary. This is Danny Hope's best team since taking over.
Upside: 5-3
Downside: 1-7
Expected Wins: 3.35

Wisconsin
Summary: The defending Big Ten champions come into the season with the expectation of repeating. They return Montee Ball, who was perhaps the most overlooked player in the Heisman race last season. They once again have a graduate transfer quarterback in Danny O'Brien. They should also have a ton of big guys on the lines as well. Wisconsin should cruise to the Big Ten title game, but I'm not sold on them as a truly great team. O'Brien was nowhere near the quarterback Russell Wilson was. They are downgrading at the most critical position. They lose some key players on offense like Nick Toon and Peter Konz. I expect the Badgers to be good. I don't know if they are great.
Upside: 8-0
Downside: 5-3
Expected Wins: 5.8

Given these predictions, we should see Michigan and Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. Keep in mind, that the expected win totals are based off of probabilities. Every team has a chance in a game, so that chance is factored into the expected wins. Some of these teams will win more games and some will win less. I will probably have the ACC up tomorrow or sometime this weekend and I'll move onto new conferences next week.

A Fulmer Cup Follow Up

I wanted to write a follow up to my Fulmer Cup post. The all time standings for the Fulmer Cup can be found here. Last time, I looked at how the conferences broke down. We found that the SEC isn't any worse than the Big XII and the Big Ten, while the ACC, Pac-12, and Big East were better at limiting their crimes rates.

Looking at the schools individually, we see that SEC has 7 of the top 20 schools. That's not even including Missouri who enters the conference this Fall. The Big Ten has 4 schools in the Top 20 while the ACC and Pac 12 each had 2 schools. For all of the problems that the Big XII has, they're losing their only Top 20 school in Missouri. However, they're inheriting West Virginia and TCU who are in the top 20.

I think another sign of problems is if a school is on the Fulmer Cup board every single year. The four schools to score every single year were Florida, South Carolina, Iowa State, and Kansas State. That's including 2012, so a school like Nebraska can appear on this list later. The habitual aspect of this suggests that Florida and South Carolina, in particular, have some major issues. Iowa State has had one bad year, but hasn't scored very high for the most part. Kansas State is the same way.

Also, if you add up the totals, the SEC is far in away the worst conference for crime. They have a 210 point advantage over the Big Ten and Big XII. While the gap between the Big Ten/Big XII and the other three major conferences is large, it is not nearly as large as that. What this tells me is that the SEC have had some years that have been very bad for crime, which we can see from the conference's 3 Fulmer Cups.

Clearly though, it's worrying that there might be a connection between big football and crime. For me, crime is unacceptable behavior no matter who the player(s) are and you've got to wonder whether a lax culture is the cause of this. It will be interesting to see how/if things change in the future.

Madness: Disappointment without Perspective

Trey Burke led Michigan to a share of the Big Ten regular season title in his freshman season.

If you haven't been taking note of this year's March Madness, the Big Ten is doing well (<-Michigan degree to good use). The Big Ten is doing really well. In fact, the only school that didn't win its first round game was Michigan. As I write this, Purdue is leading Kansas. There could be 5 Big Ten teams in the Sweet Sixteen.

To me, this is at first depressing. But then I remember that this was supposed to be a lean year. Michigan was supposed to be a middle of the pack team. Instead, they won a share of the Big Ten regular season title. That is something.

What's more is that Michigan has players that have been there, which will be helpful when players like Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III are coming in to take us to the next level. There's not a lot to be disappointed about because it was a great season.

Big Two-little ten: Follow Up

I wanted to write a follow up to the post I wrote yesterday. I did a broad strokes overview of what is happening on the recruiting trail and how the recruiting profiles of the different Big Ten schools has changed. I thought it was worth it to take a deeper look because some people aren't ready to admit that we are headed towards a two horse Big Ten.

While it's one thing to recruit well, it's another to develop that talent. Schools like Wisconsin and Michigan State don't recruit the same level of talent that Michigan and Ohio State recruit, but they are successful in developing talent. However, if you're recruiting and developing your talent, you are going to win Big Ten Championships. This is what Michigan and Ohio State do. They would not have won 77 Big Ten Championships between the two schools if this were not the case.

Ohio State got 13 players in the 2012 Rivals Top 250. Michigan had 11. The other big midwestern school, Notre Dame, had 9 players in the Top 250. There were, by my count, 38 players from Big Ten states in the 250. For the other schools that don't have the national appeal of those three schools, when those three schools are getting that many players in the top 250, it is slim pickings. You see that in the results.

Michigan State had 1 player. Wisconsin had 2. Penn State had 1. Iowa had 3. Northwestern had 1.

To put that in perspective, the midwest had 39 players in the Top 250 in 2011, a year where Urban Meyer wasn't coaching and Brady Hoke was late to the game. The Spartans had 2 players, Wisconsin had 2, Penn State had 5, Iowa had 4, Illinois had 1, and Indiana had 1. There were more players who trickled down to these schools. Michigan only had 5 players in the Top 250 and Ohio State had 9 players. Notre Dame had 10. Both Michigan and Ohio State have increased their pursuit of top level talent since then.

If you look at 2013's Top 250, you can already see that. Michigan already has 11 players in the Top 250. Ohio State has 4. Notre Dame has 1. No other Big Ten team has landed a Top 250 prospect. There is more talent in the Big Ten states than in other years, but Ohio State and Michigan have already landed 13 of the 43 players. Furthermore, they're in good standing for a lot of the other players. Michigan could very well have the type of class that has enabled Alabama to compete for a national title on a year to year basis. It's going to be tough for the other schools to get those top guys.

The numbers suggest that the Big Two will be back. You look at the coaches on both sides and you see a track record of success. They're not just bringing in talent. They're going to develop them. The other schools are beginning to get squeezed as result. While in any given year, one of the little ten schools can challenge for the title, it's going to be much more difficult to compete on a consistent basis. We're closer to another Ten Year War than an open Big Ten.

The best will be the best.

A Return to a Two Team Big Ten?

With Michigan's success under Brady Hoke and Ohio State's hiring of Urban Meyer, there's a question of whether the Big Ten will return to the Big Two and the little rest of the Big Ten (since this number has changed from 8, to 9, to 10). In his first year as head coach of Michigan, Hoke led his team to an 11-2 record including a Sugar Bowl victory. He also had a top 10 recruiting class and is well on his way to another one this year. For Urban Meyer, the expectation of success seems inevitable. In his first month and a half, he rallied Ohio State to a top 5 recruiting class. The belief is that this dominance in recruiting will translate to the gridiron.

To start, it must be said that Michigan and Ohio State's recruiting has traditionally been the best in the Big Ten. Other schools have compiled some good classes, but they haven't been consistent. With Urban Meyer and Brady Hoke entering the fold, recruiting has become more cut throat. Their pursuit of top talent is limitless, and it's going to squeeze the number of top prospects that tend to trickle down to the rest of the Big Ten. The disparity between the two and the rest of the Big Ten should grow.

Part of the problem was that Michigan has not been as competitive these last few years. Furthermore, they weren't competing for the services of the same players. Rich Rodriguez had to find players that fit his offensive system. They were recruiting different players, and as a result, the two schools didn't hold each other accountable on the recruiting trail.

While Ohio State maintained its level of recruiting for the most part, Michigan's recruiting clearly wasn't as effective. Lloyd Carr was getting top 15 classes with the average stars in the mid to high 3s. The recruiting classes under Rich Rod dropped to the low 3s. Additionally, many of the players he recruited did not stay on campus or did not see the field.

The real beneficiary of this drop off was Michigan State. The Spartans capitalized at Michigan's expense, improving their average the mid to high 2-stars to the low 3-stars. At the end of the Lloyd Carr days, Michigan State was getting only one 4/5-star every year. In the last four years, Michigan State has gotten 3 or more.

It appears that things are changing with Hoke and Meyer in the mix. Beyond the fact that both schools had top 5 classes last year, it's impressive how these two have compiled talent against their competition.  Hoke has put an emphasis in getting the top players in the state of Michigan. Last year, he got 9 of the top 15 players in Michigan. Furthermore, he has already locked up 4 of the 6 players from Michigan in the early Rivals 250. He is winning a lot of head to head battles with Michigan State.

You can look at the success Urban Meyer had by looking at the players that he kept or flipped. He got Tommy Schutt, Armani Reeves, and Camren Williams to decommit from Penn State. He landed Se'Von Pittman from Michigan State, Kyle Dodson from Wisconsin, and Taylor Decker from Notre Dame. Additionally, he landed two five-star defensive ends in Noah Spence and Adolphus Washington. Not only is Urban Meyer bringing this talent to Ohio State, he is taking the talents directly away from some of their top competitors.

2013 is shaping up to be a similar story. Brady Hoke has already landed 11 players in the Rivals 250, including 6 players in the top 100. All of the players that Urban Meyer had landed are in the Rivals 250 including top 10 prospect, Cameron Burrows. No other Big Ten team has Rivals 250 commit. It's still early, but it goes to show that Hoke and Meyer will get their players and the rest of Big Ten will have to wait.

We'll need some time to see if the recruiting dominance will translate to the field. However, you can look at the records of Meyer and Hoke and anticipate that it will. This might not be a good thing for the other schools of the Big Ten, but a return to dominance for both of these schools on a national level could change the negative perception that the conference has developed in recent years.

As an alumnus of Michigan, I hope that this is the case.

Let's Make a Deal

So today the Big Ten and Pac-12 came to an agreement to schedule each other in inter-conference play in an effort to raise the profiles of their television networks. The deal is very intriguing and unique as it marks the first major effort from the big conferences to ramp up their schedules through bi-lateral conference agreements. The Big Ten-Pac-12 agreement makes sense beyond the Rose Bowl because both conferences have created their own networks in partnership with Fox. USA Today has the necessary quotes from the Conference Commissioners:

"It's sort of in lieu of what some other people are doing (with expansion)," Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany said. 

"Our idea is you can't stand still. You have to build in an environment where people are competing for attention, where they're competing to have the best competitive assets and to present themselves in the best way. I think both of us believe … this is the most constructive way for us to do that."

These is clearly in response to the SEC adding A&M and Missouri and Big XII, ACC, and Big East all making efforts to maintain their automatic qualification in the BCS. The Pac-12 and Big Ten started early, expanding their conferences last year and creating conference championship games. Pac-12 Commissioner, Larry Scott, added:

"This will add a tough, high-quality opponent," Scott said. "Certainly, it creates a tougher path (to the national championship game). But the benefits, we think, outweigh the fact it's far more challenging."

Now the big question from all of this is what will those match ups be? What match ups make sense? I went through the teams in both conferences and tried to find a natural fit. I'll go through the match ups I came up with (listed by profile).

Michigan-USC:
This feels like an easy choice. Michigan and USC have faced off 8 times in bowl games and are also the most successful football programs in the country, let alone these conferences. This agreement is going to be about creating a marquee match up and I believe as a result, you need Michigan playing USC or Oregon and USC playing Michigan or Ohio State. I believe, culturally, this might be the best match up for the two schools.

Ohio State-Oregon:
If you have Michigan-USC, you have to have Ohio State-Oregon. This will be a good match up because both schools have strong programs, you will have the spread versus the spread, and you'll also have the Nike versus Nike contests. It was tough to choose between this and Ohio State-USC. I just thought, culturally, Michigan-USC is the best match up you can have. The case could be made for Ohio State-USC and Michigan-Oregon since those two games have happened in recent memory.

Wisconsin-California:
It might seem weird to put Cal up here, but I'm anticipating a drop in Stanford's program once Andrew Luck is gone. Cal gets a lot of the top recruits in California and once they get their renovations and new Student-Athlete High Performance Center done, they should be one of the better programs in the Pac-12. Meanwhile, Wisconsin seems like they'll be one of the better programs in the Big Ten, but they don't have the tradition of winning that Michigan and Ohio State do. It seems like a potential good match up.

Nebraska-Washington:
A lot of people probably leapt to a Nebraska-Colorado match up considering both schools were rivals in the Big XII North. However, Colorado's program is a mess and I think the Big Ten will realize that Nebraska can be better used playing someone else. Washington seems to be an emerging program under Steve Sarkisian, so this seems like a better line up competitively.

Michigan State-Arizona State:
Due to the bro-y nature of both schools, I believe that this is a natural match up culturally. Michigan State tends to be the stray dog of the Big Ten in that they don't have a rival that considers them a top rival in conference. Competitively, they can challenge for the Big Ten title or be a middling team. We don't know what ASU will be under Todd Graham, but it should be something similar.

Penn State-UCLA:
It hard to gauge where Penn State will be after these Sandusky charges came out. They're sort of the untouchables right now. I could see them as high as playing Cal or Washington, but I think it's difficult. Their recruitment class is shedding players one by one, so it's not clear where their program will be in 2017. UCLA has had similar struggles and have had trouble finding a coach that will lead them to a Pac-12 title. We'll see if Jim Mora can do the job.

Northwestern-Stanford:
As I said before, I don't think Stanford will remain an elite program in the post-Andrew Luck era. They don't have a great QB coach like Harbaugh anymore, so it will be difficult to develop another great quarterback that can transform the team. I think these two schools work because they're both small private schools in major football conferences. They're going to go after the same players. They're probably attracting similar, high-caliber students. Northwestern has a solid program, though it might not be elite. This match up just works.

The Rest of the match ups:
Iowa-Utah
Illinois-Arizona
Purdue-Colorado
Indiana-Oregon State
Minnesota-Washington State

Urban Meyer: Master or Myth

A lot has been made of Urban Meyer's arrival at Ohio State. The man has won two national championships, so it's easy to see why. However, is he a guarantee for success?

Why do I ask that?

Meyer came from a talent rich state of Florida, which supports three big name schools. Ohio, too, is a talent rich state, but he will face strong competition for every single prospect. There was more to go around in Florida where all three teams could end up with top 10 recruiting classes. In Ohio, he'll go head to head for many of the top prospects.

Additionally, there is more information about the players that he turns out. Players not only choose a program for its success on the field, but also for a chance to play at the next level. As a coach, Urban Meyer is clearly one of the best leaders in NCAA football. He has those championships and he has a track record of winning. When you bring in a guy like him, players are instantly going to be interested. We've seen that happen with many top prospects who are all of a sudden interested in visiting Ohio State. That's the Urban factor.

To understand Urban's impact, we can look at his Florida teams. We can look at his recruiting and see if those players went on to the NFL.

Going by Scout.com's rankings, prior to Meyer, Florida's recruiting wasn't great compared to instate rivals Florida State and Miami. In two of the three years before Meyer's arrival, they finished behind their rivals. In Meyer's six years at Florida, he had three classes that were the best in Florida, and only finished last once. He had two number one ranked recruiting classes and one number two ranked class. While his affect on recruiting wasn't huge, it was certainly significant enough where Florida gained an advantage.

When you look at the numbers, you cannot help but be impressed. In his six years at Florida, Meyer recruited thirty-one five-star players and sixty-four four-star players. It is notable that he did not get a single commit in Ohio, but he did manage to make connections at East Coast powerhouses like Don Bosco Prep in New Jersey and Our Lady Good Counsel in Maryland. As a fan of the current rival, it is definitely disconcerting.

As soon as Urban Meyer was hired, the recruitment of several top players heated up, and it appears that Michigan and Ohio State will battle it out for many of the remaining top players in the Midwest. One of those top players happens to be five-star Ohio State commit Bri'onte Dunn. Dunn has been waiting for the verdict on NCAA sanctions, and up until the Meyer hire, it looked like he was leaning towards decommiting and going to Michigan. Now, that seems much more up in the air.

However, one of the big things to come out of the competition for his services is this fact about Meyer:

But Dunn needs to look at the football side of things, too. He is a running back. A big running back at 6-foot-1 1/2 and 221 pounds with 4.5 40-yard speed. What Dunn probably is looking at is the fact that Meyer has never produced a 1,000-yard running back and, particularly, quarterbacks are the focal point of Meyer's spread offenses.

*** 

There isn't a 1,000-yard running back in there, and further, there isn't a guy that Meyer developed into an NFL running back, either. Percy Harvin played RB at Florida, but he was mostly used as a receiver and that's where he was drafted in the NFL.

The more years Urban Meyer coaches, the more information others have about how his players have turned out. While his college teams have been good, players aren't just looking for college success; many of them want to have successful professional careers.

That got me curious about Urban Meyer as a producer of NFL talent. Clearly, he is getting great high school athletes. However, he runs the spread, and he's never struck me as a strong defensive coach despite the fact that he has had some good defenses. He has benefited from surrounding himself with good coaches like Greg Mattison and Charlie Strong. The question is: is Meyer converting the talent he is getting from these recruiting classes into NFL ready prospects? Is this something that other schools can use against him or boast over him?

Well, over his six years, Urban Meyer produced thirty players who were drafted by an NFL team. Some of the players were recruited by his predecessor, Ron Zook, including the nine player 2007 NFL Draft, but they also played under Meyer. Since the 2006 NFL Draft, Florida has had eight first rounders, five second rounders, and three third rounders. Clearly, NFL franchises have evaluated the talent at Florida to be worthy of high round draft picks.

The problem is that most of these players have not panned out. Only two of those thirty players, Percy Harvin and Maurkice Pouncey, have made the Pro Bowl. There are several other players who look like they will have productive NFL careers like Aaron Hernandez, Joe Haden, Reggie Nelson, Marcus Gilbert, and Mike Pouncey. There are a few others who might stick on teams for a while. There are a lot of players, though, that have not made it.

For a guy who had a few of the top recruiting classes in the country, this seems like a low production of top level NFL talent. While he had the Pouncey brothers, there weren't many other offensive linemen who have translated to the NFL. Most of his defensive linemen and linebackers haven't had success either. The lack of quarterbacks and running backs has long been noted, with the exception of Tebow. There have been decent wide receivers and good secondary players though. On the whole, despite Florida's success, most of those players have not had successful NFL careers.

At this point, it's important to note that Ohio State has been one of the best producers of NFL talent over the last ten years. This is both due to recruiting, since Ohio State has consistently had top 25 classes, and due to the pro-style system that they ran under Jim Tressel. That system has helped players excel both at the college level and in the NFL.

The offense is going to change under Urban Meyer. The spread is his system. As a result, their production of NFL level offensive linemen, of NFL level running backs, and of NFL level quarterbacks should decrease. It's still a mystery what the defense will look. Often times, there is an emphasis of speed in conditioning for teams that run the spread. If the Ohio State defense begins to focus on speed instead of power, it might spell trouble in the Big Ten.

While Urban Meyer is Urban Meyer and Ohio State is Ohio State, there are still obstacles he will face that he didn't have to at Florida. There are less top athletes in the main recruiting bases of Ohio State, so he will face stronger competition for those players than what he faced at Florida. His teams might not have the same depth of athletes that he had at Florida. Furthermore, his track record for producing NFL players might deter future prospects from going to Ohio State over other schools that run the pro-style system. These are all important things that I believe will come into effect.

In all likelihood, Urban Meyer will be a success at Ohio State. It will just be harder for him than everyone else is anticipating.

Championship Week

I was going to write about The Game and the Iron Bowl last week, two rivalries that probably deserved posts, but you really can't do them justice. For any people associated with those schools, it means so much. All the aspects of the rivalry, the competition, the hatred, the tradition, you can't easily put in words, especially before the game.

This week is championship week. We have conference championships galore. We have the MAC Championship tonight. We have several other championship games tomorrow, including the ACC, Big Ten, and the SEC. We also have the Bedlam Football Game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, which will serve to decide the Big Twelve Champion. It should be an exciting day of games.

I don't know what exactly I'll be doing, but I'm thinking of heading to the Baseball Tavern. They host several of the schools that will be participating in games tomorrow so it seems like the perfect place to set up shop.