Mid-Week Madness Bans Petrino From His Own Funeral

On both Friday and Monday, I suggested that Arkansas would be forced to fire Bobby Petrino. Last night, it finally happened. We weren't sure how it would go down, but Jeff Long answered all of our questions:

It's safe to say that Long was the big winner yesterday. He handled the situation and the press conference with class, emotion, and conviction. While he shared with the media the facts that led him to fire Petrino, Long did not allow the media to pry into the private matters involving Petrino, Dorrell, and her fiance. Long was very respectful of Petrino, but he ultimately did what he had to.

So what did we find out?

Beyond what we already knew, what did we learn from the press conference? We learned some of the details regarding the relationship between Bobby Petrino and Jessica Dorrell and why Jeff Long had to fire Petrino:

According to Long, Petrino’s relationship with the 25-year-old recent hire, Jessica Dorrell, lasted a “significant” amount of time, and at one point, Petrino gave her $20,000 out of his own pocket as a “gift.” 

Dorrell, a former Razorbacks volleyball player, was hired by Petrino on March 28, only four days before both were involved in the motorcycle crash on a rural road outside of the city. Long said she was one of three finalists among a pool of 159 applicants, and was given the job in an unusually quick process. Dorrell, who reportedly called off an engagement one week before the accident, has hired a lawyer and could sue for sexual harassment. Under the school’s sexual harassment policy, even “consensual sexual relationships between faculty and their students or between supervisors and their employees in some instances may result in charges of sexual harassment.”

 As a state university, Arkansas had to fire Petrino because of fair employment practices and affirmative action. Dorrell was given an unfair advantage through the hiring process, and Petrino violated those employment policies by hiring her. While Jeff Long could have fired Petrino for a number of reasons, he had to fire Petrino for that. Petrino was fired with cause, which means that he will not be receiving any of his buyout money.

The white knight in all of this though is Jeff Long. CBS's Brett McMurphy was quick to praise the Arkansas AD:

So Long did the unthinkable. He did the right thing. He fired the man he took a chance on only five years ago because that same man "knowingly misled the university, he abused his authority, he made personal choices that benefited himself and he deceived me and members of the athletic department."

And he concludes:

Jeff Long showed Tuesday night that, unlike his former football coach, he is a class individual.

Integrity is the word that's being circulated to describe Long's actions. Now, there are some that question what he did because he was also the person that hired Bobby Petrino to begin with:

As we’re praising Long for firing Petrino, let’s not forget he also hired him. Petrino left the Atlanta Falcons immediately, during the season. Also, the coach had a long history of lying to superiors. So Long shouldn’t have been terribly surprised to learn Petrino tried to mislead or manipulate.

He has had a dodgy reputation that dates back to his time at Louisville, where he tried to keep one of his players from attending a friend's funeral. He also left the Falcons in the middle of the season to take the Razorbacks job. We all knew Petrino was a bad person. He was able to hide behind winning seasons up until the motorcycle accident. Long wanted to believe that he could trust Petrino, even though Petrino had provided no evidence that he could be trusted. While it may have been a suspect hire to begin with, Long didn't stand by his mistake, but rather he cut his losses.

Petrino for his part issued a statement last night, but there's nothing worth discussing. He made his mistakes and he's paying the price. End of story.

It's not the end of the story for Arkansas as they will have to move on. Taver Johnson, the former Ohio State assistant, will take over as Interim Head Coach through the end of Spring Practice as Jeff Long conducts his search. Clearly, the top choice or name at any SEC program would be Gus Malzahn:

GUS MALZAHN, head coach, Arkansas State. Without a doubt the first name to spring to mind of many Hog fans, the Natural State's native son (and, briefly, former Arkansas assistant) has been assumed to be headed for the Razorback head gig sooner or later. But this soon? That the previous Auburn whiz-"kid" said yes to the Red Wolves at all shows how close his ties to the state are, making the Arkansas position something akin to a dream job. But to sign up for 2012, leaving his new program in the lurch after just weeks at the helm, isn't likely something the low-key Malzahn will consider. If Long wants someone permanent now, he'll likely have to look elsewhere. But if he goes the interim route, and Malzahn's Red Wolves bolster his already solid reputation? Malzahn becomes your front-runner.

It seems that Malzahn is unlikely to leave Arkansas State after just having taken the job. Long could try to convince Malzahn to leave by giving him an ultimatum, but it's not like Malzahn's stock is going to go down if he declines. He has cemented his reputation as an offensive guru over the last few years, and he can only improve his stock by having success as a head coach. I could foresee a number of positions in the SEC opening up in the future, and Malzahn's name will be at the top of the list for all of them. There's no reason for him to leave at this time and if Long wants to get him, he might be best off waiting for next year and going through this season with an interim head coach.

Another option for Arkansas could be former offensive coordinator and current UAB coach, Garrick McGee:

All of which has led some to suggest that Long should go get one of the central figures of Petrino's success, 2010-11 offensive coordinator and current UAB head coach Garrick McGee. With quarterback Tyler Wilson, running back Knile Davis, receivers Chris Gragg and Cobi Hamilton and eight defensive starters returning, Arkansas has a chance to produce an SEC title contender this fall, and McGee, with his expertise of the system and the personnel, could take over with minimal disruption. 

But to do that would be to sell Arkansas' program short. McGee is a 39-year-old who's not yet coached his first game. While he's respected enough to land a head coaching job, it's only at a bottom-barrel Conference USA school. He may well be a future star, but better to find that out at UAB than to hand over the keys to an SEC program to a complete unknown.

With McGee, you would probably have a smoother transition due to the familiarity with the current players, but again, you run into the same problems as you did with Malzahn; McGee doesn't have head coaching experience. It's telling that these two are the best current candidates. It's safe to say that one of these coaches would be likely to succeed and one of them might be great future candidates for the Arkansas job. However, it might not be worth the risk for Arkansas to hire one of these candidates without any prior head coaching experience at the Division 1 level.

I just can't see Arkansas hiring a new coach at this point. Even if they found a worthy candidate and offered boatloads of money, it might not be the best time to make a new hire. We're past signing day and Spring Practice is near its conclusion. The new coach has missed his opportunity to acclimate himself with his current players (and vice versa) and he's missed his opportunity to bring in his own players. The best decision, in my opinion, would be to go with the Interim Head Coach, at least for this season.

Weekend Wrap Congratulates BC

I have to start today by congratulating the Boston College Eagles. On Saturday night, they won their third National Championship in 5 years and their fourth in the last 12 years. The story isn't the program though; it's this team. They won 19 straight games on the way to this title, including the Bean Pot and Hockey East. Riding that hot streak coming into the tournament, it's no surprise that the Eagles took home the hardware, but it is remarkable what they've accomplished.

Last Summer, Jerry York was unsure of what he had:

TAMPA - When Jerry York met with his staff last summer, the Boston College hockey coach viewed his team as something of a jigsaw puzzle, with its pieces scattered all over. 

He knew that eventually he’d figure out where they would fit together, but because of the players they had lost from the year before it was going to take time. 

York talked about it being a sort of rebuilding year, but the Eagles don’t rebuild, they reload.

That last bit has become somewhat of a motto for the BC faithful. While it may sound arrogant, it's hard to argue with the results that the Eagles have gotten. The Globe continues as it sums up this team:

As the whole became greater than the parts, BC went from a pretty talented squad seeking an identity to one with a genuine No. 1 goaltender in Milner, four viable lines that contributed on a nightly basis, six veteran defensemen who worked together like a well-oiled machine, and a coaching staff that deftly figured out that the leadership of the senior class - led by Cross, who was the captain - raised everyone’s standards and expectations.

A lot of times, when you have talented players, they do what they want. It's hard to get things to click. A good example of this might be BC's archrival, the BU Terriers. They probably get a similar level of talent, but they don't play with discipline or with an emphasis on team hockey. BC struggled early in the season, but York got them on the right path:

“In the beginning of the year, we didn’t know where everyone was going to fit in,’’ said Mullane. “As the year went on, everyone realized what their role was and where they were going to fit. The reason we were successful was because guys bought into that. A lot of teams that aren’t successful don’t buy into that idea of ‘I’m going to take my role and embrace it.’ Because everyone wants to be a goal-scorer, but if you’re going to be successful, you can’t have all goal-scorers. Our team realized that we had to be our best in our individual roles.’’

The BC team got "it" and was rewarded at the end of the day. With the way they played, it's hard to say that they didn't earn it. While they may lose a lot of players from this team, beware that the Eagles don't rebuild, they reload. They mean it too.

***

Jeff Long has a tough decision to make

Obviously, the big story continues to be Bobby Petrino. I said on Friday that Jeff Long would be pressured to fire Bobby Petrino because of the lies. Upon further review, the biggest issue seems to be the affair and the circumstances under which Jessica Dorrell was hired. There seems to be plenty of leeway for Long to fire Petrino:

A clause in Petrino's contract gives Long the right to suspend or fire the 51-year-old coach for conduct that "negatively or adversely affects the reputation of the (university's) athletics programs in any way." 

That language gives Long plenty of leeway to punish Petrino, who is on indefinite paid leave after reviving Arkansas' football program over four seasons and, until now, steering clear of off-field blemishes.

There is no doubt that Petrino has brought negative attention to the university's athletic programs. While Long has the right to fire Petrino, I believe that if Petrino gets fired, it's because Long's hand is forced more than anything. Petrino is a winner and one of the brightest minds in college football. That's hard to let go. Unfortunately, the decision may be out of Long's hands. It would probably be the right decision though.

Petrino's misstep represents a lesson to head coaches of major programs:

"Like it or not, that's what you signed up for and that's your responsibility," Pelini said. "You're responsible to people way beyond just you first and foremost your family, the athletic department, the football team, the players, your staff, everybody you're associated with." 

Pelini said he keeps that thought in mind anytime he's in public. 

"Your reputation is your greatest asset," Pelini said. "You better protect it at all times."

Petrino's reputation has clearly been tarnished in the last week, and it's all from his own doing. Lori Duncan, a coach at Eastern Kentucky, where Long spent a lot of time, expects Long to do the right thing:

"Personal integrity is very important to him and to us, he alluded to doing things the right way," Duncan said. "It was very, very important to him. I can think back who the kids were, who they were as people and how he treated them. I'd be surprised if he didn't respond in a very strong way."

From the way that is phrased, one can only presume that Petrino is done at Arkansas. There are plenty of reasons to fire Petrino based on football, and there are a lot of rumors about what's going on with the story right now. It would only be prudent to look at who the next coach at Arkansas might be. One of the most talked about candidates seems to be Garrick McGee of UAB:

McGee is asked about the situation at Arkansas around 4 minutes into the interview, but doesn't specifically address any interest that he might have in the position. The other "big name" candidate that's been talked about is Gus Malzahn of Arkansas State. CBS Sports speculates about him, but concludes that he won't want any part of the drama:

Staying at Arkansas State is the right thing to do. It also might be the smart thing to do. Arkansas would be a huge step up, a step Malzahn is now prepared for. But by now he also has intimate knowledge of the soap opera Fayetteville can become. If they had just run Nutt out because he wasn't winning enough that would fine. But they also ran him out with innuendo, out-and-out harassment. 

When they don't want you at Arkansas, they really don't want you. 

That's the reason Malzahn won't take the job, perhaps ever. He'll make his underpaid $1.1 million at Arkansas State and turn it into “the next Boise State.” (His words.) Then he'll be back as an SEC head coach. Just not now and just not at Arkansas.

I'm not sure that Malzahn will turn Arkansas State into "the next Boise State" so much as he will wait for the right opportunity to open up. With a scandal like this, it's always tough to step into the situation. However, there seems to be some rooted problems with the way Arkansas handles these type of situations and it might be something that Malzahn wants to avoid. Down the line, there could be an opening at another big SEC school in the future (Florida, for one, if Muschamp continues his reign of failure). In the meantime, he can do his job at Arkansas State, where he will be the man.

CBS Sports also lists realistic replacements and McGee is at the top of that list:

Garrick McGee – The overwhelming No. 1 choice to replace Petrino. Alabama-Birmingham's new coach, like Gus, has yet to coach a game. But it's much easier to leave UAB than it is Arkansas State. Why? UAB isn't in the same state. McGee was Arkansas' former offensive coordinator and big time quarterback developer. Ask Ryan Mallett and Tyler Wilson. Deep down, I don't think the Blazers' administration would blame McGee for leaving. It's an SEC job and you're UAB.

It seems like an easy decision were it the case, unless Arkansas wants to bridge a year to get a bigger name. Some of the other names mentioned are Tony Dungy, Pat Hill, and Mark Mangino. Mangino would probably not be a good hire for Arkansas, but it would be a great deal of entertainment for the rest of us.

At this point in the offseason, I would presume that Arkansas would either continue under Taver Johnson, or that they would appoint a coach for a bridge year. There is no way they are going to lure someone away now considering that the recruiting year is over and we're essentially through Spring Practice. It just wouldn't make sense.

***

The Rose Bowl is College Football's Tradition Like No Other

Georgia's president believes that the Big Ten-Pac 12 Rose Bowl matchup is outdated:

"This is not 1950, or 1960," Adams told The Wall Street Journal. "There are great schools in the [Atlantic Coast Conference] and the Southeastern Conference and the Big 12. I think it's time to put everybody on an equal footing. I just reject the notion that the Big Ten and the Pac-12 ought to be treated differently in this process. 

"If they can be accommodated without changing the entire process, then I think everyone is open to that. I have great respect for the Big Ten and the Pac-12, and have two Big Ten degrees [from Ohio State]. But I don't think that they have the right to dictate policy to all the rest of us."

I know this is taking his comments out of context, but as far as the tradition of having the Pac-12 and Big Ten in the Rose Bowl, I believe that should be preserved. The Rose Bowl was first played in 1902 and has been played annually between the two conferences since 1916. It's the Granddaddy of Them All. There's so much tradition and pageantry with the parade and everything involved. It's important to the two conferences, and I don't think it's dated.

If we got rid of some of the traditions in college football where would we be? What if Michigan-Ohio State wasn't played at the end of the season? What if Oklahoma-Texas wasn't played at the Cotton Bowl? These are the type of things we'd be missing out on because they've been done for so long. There's this call to come up with new solutions and to make things better, but why uproot beautiful traditions that have made the sport what it is?

Now, getting back on topic as far as Adams is concerned, I don't think that there should be a special rule that the Big Ten/Pac 12 Champions should have to play in the Rose Bowl, especially when the stake of the National Championship game is available. At the same time, I don't think that the Rose Bowl needs the Big Ten/Pac 12 Champions if they're in the playoff. We've seen a couple times in the last ten years where the Big Ten champion has gone to the National Championship and the runner up has gone to the Rose Bowl. It hasn't taken away from the game. I don't see how there is a problem with that.

The playoff system itself is another can of worms and I'll discuss it further when I look at proposals more thoroughly. The Rose Bowl should keep with tradition though. I feel very strongly about that.

***

Quick Hitters: Cranky Arkansas old man is cranky and old. Brock Mealer walking is inspirational. The judge in the Sandusky trial has issued a Gag Order. S Josh Furman has been suspended by Michigan. The Wolverines are also listed as a 14.5 point underdog against Alabama in the season opener. How Urban Meyer broke Florida football. The number of college hockey players in the NHL has grown greatly since the 1999-2000 season.

Friday Feature Fires Bobby Petrino

Bobby Petrino is (was?) the Head Coach of the Razorbacks

Last night, Arkansas Athletic Director, Jeff Long, held a press conference to announce that Bobby Petrino  has been placed on administrative leave, barring further investigation:

"I hope to have a resolution soon," Long said. I certainly don't have all the answers here tonight, as we meet. But again, I have an obligation and responsibility to obtain the information and then act appropriately on that information."

If you missed the details of what happened, Petrino was involved in a motorcycle accident, which left him in the above state (also, the Police Report):

"Arkansas State Police was notified of a single vehicle motor vehicle crash along Highway 16 in Madison County near the Crosses community about 6:45 last night (Sunday)," the statement read. "The crash involved a motorcycle that had left the roadway. Coach Petrino was the operator of the motorcycle. He was transported to a Washington County medical facility."

From the outset, this had a Tiger Woods-like vibe. If you remember back in 2009, Tiger Woods was in a car accident on Thanksgiving night. The accident and impending marriage problems led to the unearthing of the many affairs that Woods had had over the years. He lost endorsements and he lost the allure that made him Tiger Woods.

Bobby Petrino is nowhere near the figure that Tiger Woods is or was, but the accident has really brought to question his integrity. In his previous statement, he lied about having a passenger, which calls to question his trustworthiness. There are many other questions that might come from this as more details of the incident make their way to the public, but at the moment, we have to hold judgment. Just reading his statement, I can't say things are going to be fine and dandy for Petrino:

“The state police report today provides an accurate description of my accident, which includes details that had not publicly come to light prior to the report being issued. I regret that I have not publicly acknowledged a passenger on the vehicle. I have been in constant pain, medicated and the circumstances involving the wreck have come out in bits and pieces. That said I certainly had a concern about Jessica Dorrell’s name being revealed. In my press conference, I referred to her simply as ‘a lady’. My concern was to protect my family and a previous inappropriate relationship from becoming public. In hindsight, I showed a serious mistake in judgment when I chose not to be more specific about those details. Today, I’ve acknowledged this previous inappropriate relationship with my family and those within the athletic department administration.

It feels like there is a whole can of worms waiting to be opened. Petrino probably hasn't done anything illegal, but he's done plenty to threaten the reputation of the University of Arkansas and everyone associated with it. Petrino has backed Long into a corner where Long will either have to fire a coach when there's no one better on the market or keep Petrino knowing that he [Long] cannot trust him. CBS Sports's Bruce Feldman speculates on what will happen:

Winning coaches often get the benefit of the doubt. And Petrino, love him or hate him--and most people outside of the state of Arkansas tend to go with the latter, is a superb offensive coach. He is 34-17 in four seasons at Arkansas in the toughest division in college football. Two seasons ago, the Hogs finished 12th in the nation. Last year, they finished fifth. They're going to be loaded on offense again, led by QB Tyler Wilson and running back Knile Davis, and they have both Alabama and LSU at home. Expectations are soaring. Or at least they were till Thursday night. 

It is such a mess. Can he go back to work after being at the center of this? How does he face his co-workers? His team? How does he sit down in a recruit's home on the couch and speak to the kid or his parents after this? Some people I spoke to Thursday night (several who work in college athletes) said they don't see how Petrino can survive this. Really? It wouldn't surprise me at all. While these are valid questions, we've seen repeated instances of coaches getting themselves into awkward and embarrassing situations time and time again and yet, if the guy is a winner, people will give them another chance. Lots of folks have short memories. A lot shorter than those it seems of the media--and rival fans. It happens so often we just shrug our shoulders whenever that guy later says something that sounds like pure rhetoric, and yet a thirsty fan base is usually right there to vigorously defend him and administrators and boosters are there to pay him lots of money provided the guy wins enough games and doesn't get stuck in any NCAA spiderwebs.

I understand that having a winning program is incredibly important, but perhaps what hurts Petrino the most is the fact that he lied to the AD and paraded himself in public prior to the Dorrell news getting out. He was hailed as some sort of warrior for gutting out the injuries to return to practice. While it did take some courage to get back to work, there was an element of the truth missing. That element, as it turns out, is a big part of the story.

By parading himself out in the media while perpetuating a lie, he has put Arkansas in an extremely difficult situation, but I think Bobby Petrino has coached his last game for the Arkansas Razorbacks. The one thing that schools do not want any part of is scandal. While keeping a winning team is important, there will be moral pressure from alumni and administration to let him go. There is too much at stake.

I'm not sure how it's going to affect the current team. I'm not sure if it's too late to gain entry into the NFL Draft. I will say, however, that if Tyler Wilson does get into the draft, he'll probably be the third best QB on the board behind Luck and RG3. I mean Ryan Tannehill? Come on.

***

Last night, Boston College rolled through Minnesota to get into the final where they will face Ferris State. I did not watch either of these games due to the poor quality of my ESPN U. From what I've heard, the Ferris-Union game was pretty even whereas the BC-Minnesota game was anything but. Boston College is not only one of the most talented teams, but also the hottest. They will be an overwhelming favorite to win the National Championship on Saturday night. There's really not that much to add.

***

If you haven't been already, make sure you watch Shutdown Fullback, a show featuring EDSBS's Spencer Hall and SBNation's Jason Kirk. The show features a lot of laughs at the expense of everyone. My follow of the week would go to Eight Ball the Tiger, the fictional account of Clemson's drugged out mascot. There will be a lot of programs that will have their Spring Game this weekend, including Clemson, Florida State, Georgia, and South Carolina, so hopefully I'll have some reaction from those.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Idea for Formulating Tournament Success

This is more me spitballing to try and come up with a good concept. I'm having trouble thinking in my head, so I thought it would be a good idea to get some of these things down. As I said before, some of the stats I look at most are free throw percentage, rebounding margin, and assist-turnover ratio. It's been hard for me to combine all of the concepts that I'm working with, so it might be better to keep them separate for the time being. What I have been working on mostly is playing with the rebounding margin statistic.

The rebounding margin statistic, to me, is all about the ability to gain extra possessions (from previous post that is linked above): 

If you are outrebounding your opponent, you are either preventing second chance opportunities or you are getting second chances opportunities.

I thought about other statistics which are suggestive of a team's ability to gain more or lose possessions. I added steals and blocks to the rebounding margin and subtracted turnovers. Basically, you have a statistic which measures your ability to take away a possession from the other team or to give away a possession in addition to your rebounding margin. The results of this statistic were pretty interesting (Top 10 teams):

1. Kentucky
2. North Carolina
3. Ohio State
4. St. Mary's
5. Michigan State
6. BYU
7. Kansas
8. New Mexico State
9. Wichita State
10. Connecticut

Kentucky obviously went on to win the tournament and Kansas was the runner up. North Carolina, Ohio State and Michigan State also made deep runs. Most of the other schools like St Mary's, New Mexico State, and Wichita State are mid-major who may not have played a high level of competition and therefore their statistics might have been a bit inflated.

The bottom 10 teams of the statistic is pretty telling as well as most of these teams did not win many games:

68. Mississippi Valley State
67. Colorado State
66. Western Kentucky
65. Long Island University - Brooklyn
64. Michigan
63. Norfolk State
62. Notre Dame
61. UNC-Asheville
60. Iona
59. Ohio

Ohio had two wins in the tournament, one of which came against Michigan. Norfolk State shocked Missouri in one of the 15-2 upsets. Most of the rest of these teams are some of the worst teams in the tournament. Michigan and Notre Dame are big conference teams, and it's clear that this is part of the reason that they lost in the first round.

I guess just looking at these numbers, you can get a pretty decent idea of which teams will be successful, but I'd also look at them head to head. I think the Ohio-Michigan example is a good one because while Ohio is not good in this statistic, they are better than Michigan. This is not the only aspect of the game that I think is important, but I do think that this can be a significant indicator of tournament success.

I'm having trouble gauging how to make the free throw percentage statistic effective. It doesn't matter how well you shoot free throws if you're not getting to the line. As I said before, I've mostly played around with the rebounding statistic, and this is a statistic that I will probably play with next. I think it would have to be more of a power index as far as the teams that are going to be physical. I'd probably look at free throw attempts, but I'd also want to see how it goes along with rebounding margin or at least look at offensive rebounds. This is going to be more tricky as it'll be tougher to find correlation with winning.

I've sort of ignored the assist-turnover statistic because that one to me has more to do with looking at rosters. I haven't really gone through the rosters because I'm not sure how I am going categorize and index depth. May be after I look at a few rosters, I can get an idea of how the average roster looks and work off of that.

There's still a lot of work to be done.

The Dark Underbelly of College Sports

It's always weird to see people's reaction to winning a National Championship. It should be a moment of joy. It should be a celebration. People should be happy. Only good should come out of it. This is just a very utopian view on how a championship should be handled.

In reality, it is much different.

Kentucky won the Men's National Championship last night, and afterwards, there was no question about how their fans would celebrate their championship:

A clue to the bedlam that would occur in Lexington, KY

The end product wasn't just the burning of couches; it was rioting, fires, and even some gun shots. Cars were flipped over. Does that sound like jubilation to you? The police say that this behavior is intolerable:

"We want to send a clear and strong message that individuals who engage in this behavior will be investigated and prosecuted," Lexington Police Chief Ronnie Bastin said. "If you choose to commit criminal acts, don't be surprised when we knock on your door even days after the event and arrest you."

But it doesn't change the fact that this happened. It's hard to say the police weren't complacent when images such as this are on the internet:

In fact, the number one trend on Twitter last night was "#LexingtonPoliceScanner" as many people, myself included, listened to the mayhem that was being reported on the radio. It was disappointing the way these people were acting.

I don't have a problem with people celebrating a championship in the streets. As long as it is controlled and people respect others' property, it's fine. The scene out of Lexington was anything but these things:

This is a city where students live and go to school. While there is reason to be excited, that excitement should not be directed towards the destruction of property. You don't show how much you love your team in that manner. In addition to all the physical damage, you're doing damage to your own personal reputation and the reputation of your school and even your state.

I can't say that police didn't care because they were largely outnumbered, but there could have been more done. There could have been a better plan. When Michigan State was knocked out of the tournament, the students first instinct was to riot and start couch fires. The police had a plan: they watered down the couches. While there was some damage, that was limited by the rallying cry for destruction that the couch fires seem to be. When the police is ordering each other "maintain integrity," it's hard to believe in the commitment of the Lexington Police Department to stop this wave of destruction.

Unfortunately, this has become the status quo in college towns if something goes right or wrong. In an environment of young misguided adults, where alcohol is plentiful, this has become the standard reaction. After Penn State fired Joe Paterno, students rioted. After Alabama won the Football National Championship, a Bama fan teabagged a LSU fan. Also, after Auburn won the 2011 Football Championship, a Bama fan poisoned the famed trees on the Auburn campus. These are just a few acts of destruction in recent years.

It's unacceptable, but it has become the dirty underbelly of college sports culture.

***

On one of the forums that I post on, a Cuse fan made the case that they could have beat Kentucky:

There were only two teams, IMO, that had a real shot at knocking off Kentucky this year: UNC and Syracuse. Syracuse because of their athleticism, depth, ability to run (they could have run with UK), and if it's played to its potential, their 2-3 zone could cause anyone fits. And UNC because of all their NBA talent. 

But losing perhaps each teams' most indispensable players (for SU Fab Melo, BE defensive player of the year, anchors the middle, shot-blocker supreme; and for UNC Kendall Marshall, one of the best point guards in the country...makes that team go) ended all hopes at that. 

UK proved all year long that they were the best team in the country. I am ok with that (I'd rather it have been my alma mater, but oh well).

I guess you can play hypotheticals if you want, but my big problem with all of this is that I believe Syracuse's record and seeding was inflated by the fact that Melo had played as long as he did. Furthermore, Syracuse didn't announce that Melo was ineligible until after the bracket was announced. They probably knew he was ineligible well before then, but decided to wait until the bracket was set in stone to make that announcement. Again, one of the keys here is that Syracuse is the one who ruled him ineligible and not the NCAA. They also hid behind the FERPA so that they didn't have to disclose more.

While I think Boeheim was right to rule him ineligible for the tournament, I'd have also liked to know if he should have been deemed ineligible sooner. I think Syracuse benefited from choosing when to announce that Melo would miss the tournament. If Melo's absence had been announced before the bracket is finalized, I could see Syracuse dropping a seed. They could have easily lost in an earlier round facing a strong 3 or 6 seed in the Sweet Sixteen. It could be said that Syracuse did as well as they did in the tournament because they had an easier route as a 1 seed. Syracuse was hurt in the tournament by Melo's absence, but they could have been hurt sooner had they announced his ineligibility sooner.

On the other hand, UNC may have lost because of an injury and not due to any wrongdoing by a player or coach. That is something that you really can't control, but it is the reality of playing games. I have less of a problem with Carolina fans playing the "what if" game because of this. The bottom line is that you don't crown a champion on paper. As sports followers, we love to play the hypotheticals, but in the end, they really don't matter after the fact. Kentucky is the deserving National Champion as they've shown all season long that they are the best team in the country. They were the number one seed in the tournament going in and they proved that they were the top team in the tournament by winning the whole thing.

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The Melo story makes me question if the NCAA handles students' academic situations right. From what I've heard, Melo was in poor academic standard through out the season. While he was suspended for three games, it's hard for me to believe that he was actually eligible to play. If Boeheim had his way, I believe Melo would have played in the tournament, but with the Bernie Fine scandal, he could not afford to take another hit to his reputation. I'm surprised that Melo played in the Big East tournament.

It was also reported today that Mo Claiborne, the LSU cornerback entering the NFL draft, scored a 4 on his Wonderlic. The score doesn't stand out as much to me as the question how he managed to stay eligible at LSU. How can you be at a major academic institution and score a 4 on the Wonderlic? It's preposterous and the NCAA should do better to make sure these kids are actually being educated. 

These two stories make it worrisome as to whether the academic aspect of college sports is taken seriously. While the NCAA might talk up its student-athletes' performances in the classroom and beyond, that's just PR. How do you explain things like this? It's hard for me to believe that they actually care about educating these kids.

At the time that I wrote this, I was unaware that Mo Claiborne had a learning disability, which in the case of this test, can make a huge difference. I still have to stay on the NCAA for not putting enough of an effort towards pushing schools to educating student-athletes and keeping them out of trouble and prepared for life. 

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My bracket finished 34,511 out of just under 7 million entries. That puts me into the top 0.5%, which is very impressive. In the meantime, I've started to play with numbers to try to formulate the thinking that went into those picks. Hopefully, I'll have something to post about in the next few weeks.

Weekend Review Brags About My Bracket

First, I'd like to apologize for thinking that the Frozen Four was this weekend. I always forget that they're not on consecutive weekends. I guess I will just quote everything from Friday's post or try to bring something else on Friday. 

I was having a conversation with my friend yesterday about the success of my bracket. He asked if I had an algorithm that I was using and I promptly responded that I used my brain. That's not completely true. I did use some stats that I believe are important in the tournament. I also used some favoritism to teams with coaches that have had a track record of tournament success. There wasn't a given formula though; I just kept these stats in mind when making picks.

Free Throw Percentage:
My thinking with Free Throws is that they're huge in close games. If you're leading and you can't hit your free throws, you're going to have a tough time holding onto the lead because you're going to get fouled. If you're trailing and you can't hit your free throws with the clock stopped, you're screwed as well. Free throw percentage is important. You have to get to the line and make your free throws.

It's not just about team free throw percentage, but you have to look at the guys who will get the ball. Who plays the most? Who handles the ball? Those are the guys who will probably be fouled and relied upon to hit the free throws. As you will notice with most of these stats, I have the philosophy of looking at things from both a macro (team) and micro (star players/ball handlers) perspective.

Rebound Margin:
Rebounding is one of my favorite stats in college basketball. I think it's important for a number of reasons.  If you are outrebounding your opponent, you are either preventing second chance opportunities or you are getting second chances opportunities. Furthermore, it is suggestive that you are a physical team and physical teams usually draw fouls and can get the other team in foul trouble. Fouls equal free throws and if you're also a good free throw shooting team (see above), you can get points with the clock stopped. Fouls also challenge the depth of the other team. That's always a good thing.

There isn't one thing I look for and certainly height and weight aren't everything. I do glance at the roster to see if there is more than one player contributing to this, since depth is also an important factor. If one player gets into foul trouble or injured, it's important for others to be capable of doing the job.

Assist-Turnover Ratio:
Taking care of the basketball can make or break a team. I think this statistic is a good gauge of how a team does that. First, assists are a statistic that measures a team's ability to create field goals. Turnovers take away the chance to get points. You're going to be playing some good teams in the tournament. If you can't take care of the basketball, you're not going to win your games.

Individually, you want to make sure there is more than one person who can deliver. This is to see if the team is generally good at taking care of the ball, or whether it's more up to one player. If it is up to one player, then there are depth concerns. If your primary ball handler is in foul trouble or hurt, can you continue to succeed? It's very concerning.

Conference:
This might have to be more associated with RPI. I favor teams that play in tougher conference than I do teams that faced weaker competition. Part of that is looking at teams that got into the tournament, the rest has to do with general perception. Are these teams being tested in the regular season? How are the OOC schedules and results? I think I'll look more at RPI in the future. The problem with using RPI, many times, is that I personally might lean on it too much if I use it.

This year, the Pac-12 was weak and the Big Ten was strong. The results, in many ways, confirm this. You really can't rely on purely conference vs conference though. This is how you see a team like Baylor and Missouri losing, while a team like Kansas makes the Final Four. You have to be selective.

Coaching:
Certain coaches do their best work at tournament time. Have you noticed that your bracket has been busted year after year by teams coached by the same coach? Are these teams outplaying their ranking, their talent, their match ups? Why do you think that is?

I respect the work of certain coaches come tournament time. These are coaches like Tom Izzo and Rick Pitino whose teams have devastated my bracket year after year. I think I'm going to have to add someone like Billy Donovan and, perhaps, Shaka Smart to that list. We're not talking teams that necessarily win it all, but rather, teams that make deeper runs than you would expect.

I'll have to take a bigger look at the other side of the card; coaches who lose early compared to their talent.


Other Things I May Have Kept In Mind:
Some other things I might keep in mind are injuries (or absences), experience, and how hot a team is.

Syracuse lost Fab Melo to eligibility issues which deprived a talented team with one of its best players. I still had them going to the Elite Eight, but when you consider a match up Ohio State, who has a big physical player like Jared Sullinger, you had to think the Buckeyes would fair well in that game. Another injury that I consider was the injury concerns with UNC's John Henson. Again, I had them going deep in the tournament, but I had them losing to a tough and physical Kansas team. Ultimately, what hurt them the most was the absence of Kendall Marshall.

Experience is also important. If you have players who have been there before, they are probably going to better handle adverse situations. Furthermore, upperclassmen are more likely to give it their all, knowing that their time is coming up. There's the leadership aspect. I can't specifically mention teams that I picked that may have benefited from this. I know one team (Michigan) who I overrated because of this.

How hot a team is coming into the tournament is very important. If a team isn't playing well coming into the tournament, there's a chance they can get caught along the way, no matter how talented they are. It seems like teams that do well in their conference tourney generally do well in the one and done format of the NCAA tournament. Look at teams like Cincinnati and Louisville to see this. Teams that struggle in their conference tournament (Michigan) are less likely to do well.

Conclusion:
Obviously, I can't claim to have done perfectly. I had a horrible first round, which might be preventing me from winning the $10,000 for winning the tournament challenge. I may have also benefited from having higher ranked teams in the Final Four, but I've done better as the tournament has gone along and that's something. I do think there is some significance to the stats that I pointed to. I'd like to take a deeper look into them and actually develop an actual algorithm.

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I don't think there's much to add from other sports because the tournament was the big story of the weekend.