A lot has been made of Urban Meyer's arrival at Ohio State. The man has won two national championships, so it's easy to see why. However, is he a guarantee for success?
Why do I ask that?
Meyer came from a talent rich state of Florida, which supports three big name schools. Ohio, too, is a talent rich state, but he will face strong competition for every single prospect. There was more to go around in Florida where all three teams could end up with top 10 recruiting classes. In Ohio, he'll go head to head for many of the top prospects.
Additionally, there is more information about the players that he turns out. Players not only choose a program for its success on the field, but also for a chance to play at the next level. As a coach, Urban Meyer is clearly one of the best leaders in NCAA football. He has those championships and he has a track record of winning. When you bring in a guy like him, players are instantly going to be interested. We've seen that happen with many top prospects who are all of a sudden interested in visiting Ohio State. That's the Urban factor.
To understand Urban's impact, we can look at his Florida teams. We can look at his recruiting and see if those players went on to the NFL.
Going by Scout.com's rankings, prior to Meyer, Florida's recruiting wasn't great compared to instate rivals Florida State and Miami. In two of the three years before Meyer's arrival, they finished behind their rivals. In Meyer's six years at Florida, he had three classes that were the best in Florida, and only finished last once. He had two number one ranked recruiting classes and one number two ranked class. While his affect on recruiting wasn't huge, it was certainly significant enough where Florida gained an advantage.
When you look at the numbers, you cannot help but be impressed. In his six years at Florida, Meyer recruited thirty-one five-star players and sixty-four four-star players. It is notable that he did not get a single commit in Ohio, but he did manage to make connections at East Coast powerhouses like Don Bosco Prep in New Jersey and Our Lady Good Counsel in Maryland. As a fan of the current rival, it is definitely disconcerting.
As soon as Urban Meyer was hired, the recruitment of several top players heated up, and it appears that Michigan and Ohio State will battle it out for many of the remaining top players in the Midwest. One of those top players happens to be five-star Ohio State commit Bri'onte Dunn. Dunn has been waiting for the verdict on NCAA sanctions, and up until the Meyer hire, it looked like he was leaning towards decommiting and going to Michigan. Now, that seems much more up in the air.
However, one of the big things to come out of the competition for his services is this fact about Meyer:
But Dunn needs to look at the football side of things, too. He is a running back. A big running back at 6-foot-1 1/2 and 221 pounds with 4.5 40-yard speed. What Dunn probably is looking at is the fact that Meyer has never produced a 1,000-yard running back and, particularly, quarterbacks are the focal point of Meyer's spread offenses.
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There isn't a 1,000-yard running back in there, and further, there isn't a guy that Meyer developed into an NFL running back, either. Percy Harvin played RB at Florida, but he was mostly used as a receiver and that's where he was drafted in the NFL.The more years Urban Meyer coaches, the more information others have about how his players have turned out. While his college teams have been good, players aren't just looking for college success; many of them want to have successful professional careers.
That got me curious about Urban Meyer as a producer of NFL talent. Clearly, he is getting great high school athletes. However, he runs the spread, and he's never struck me as a strong defensive coach despite the fact that he has had some good defenses. He has benefited from surrounding himself with good coaches like Greg Mattison and Charlie Strong. The question is: is Meyer converting the talent he is getting from these recruiting classes into NFL ready prospects? Is this something that other schools can use against him or boast over him?
Well, over his six years, Urban Meyer produced thirty players who were drafted by an NFL team. Some of the players were recruited by his predecessor, Ron Zook, including the nine player 2007 NFL Draft, but they also played under Meyer. Since the 2006 NFL Draft, Florida has had eight first rounders, five second rounders, and three third rounders. Clearly, NFL franchises have evaluated the talent at Florida to be worthy of high round draft picks.
The problem is that most of these players have not panned out. Only two of those thirty players, Percy Harvin and Maurkice Pouncey, have made the Pro Bowl. There are several other players who look like they will have productive NFL careers like Aaron Hernandez, Joe Haden, Reggie Nelson, Marcus Gilbert, and Mike Pouncey. There are a few others who might stick on teams for a while. There are a lot of players, though, that have not made it.
For a guy who had a few of the top recruiting classes in the country, this seems like a low production of top level NFL talent. While he had the Pouncey brothers, there weren't many other offensive linemen who have translated to the NFL. Most of his defensive linemen and linebackers haven't had success either. The lack of quarterbacks and running backs has long been noted, with the exception of Tebow. There have been decent wide receivers and good secondary players though. On the whole, despite Florida's success, most of those players have not had successful NFL careers.
At this point, it's important to note that Ohio State has been one of the best producers of NFL talent over the last ten years. This is both due to recruiting, since Ohio State has consistently had top 25 classes, and due to the pro-style system that they ran under Jim Tressel. That system has helped players excel both at the college level and in the NFL.
The offense is going to change under Urban Meyer. The spread is his system. As a result, their production of NFL level offensive linemen, of NFL level running backs, and of NFL level quarterbacks should decrease. It's still a mystery what the defense will look. Often times, there is an emphasis of speed in conditioning for teams that run the spread. If the Ohio State defense begins to focus on speed instead of power, it might spell trouble in the Big Ten.
While Urban Meyer is Urban Meyer and Ohio State is Ohio State, there are still obstacles he will face that he didn't have to at Florida. There are less top athletes in the main recruiting bases of Ohio State, so he will face stronger competition for those players than what he faced at Florida. His teams might not have the same depth of athletes that he had at Florida. Furthermore, his track record for producing NFL players might deter future prospects from going to Ohio State over other schools that run the pro-style system. These are all important things that I believe will come into effect.
In all likelihood, Urban Meyer will be a success at Ohio State. It will just be harder for him than everyone else is anticipating.
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