In-State Recruiting: A Precursor to a Study

Texas has always been effective in hooking in in-state talent.

Rivals had an article today about in-state recruiting and the schools that are the best at keeping that in-state talent in-state. Unsurprisingly, Texas came on top:

But there's no doubt that schools from Texas rely more on home-grown prospects than any other state in the union. The numbers back it up. 

Rivals.com analyzed the last five recruiting classes from each of the 117 FBS non-academies to find out which schools had signed the highest percentage of in-state players during that stretch. Texas led the way, as 91.3 percent of its signees came from within its own state.

I don't think this methodology really works because some states have more talent, therefore you can afford to recruit entirely in-state. Actually, the article backs up this belief:

In fact, six Texas teams had among the 10 highest percentages of in-state recruits over the last five years. Baylor ranked second (88.1 percent), Rice sixth (85.3), Houston eighth (84.3), Texas A&M ninth (81.2) and TCU 10th (78.8). The only non-Texas teams in the top 10 were No. 3 Fresno State (87.8), No. 4 San Jose State (87.5), No. 5 San Diego State (85.7) and No. 7 Florida Atlantic (84.4).

The fact that Texas has six teams with the highest percentage of in-state recruits should tell you something; Texas produces a lot of Division 1 players. Additionally, these schools all have high percentages, which means that while there may be competition, they can all get their players. The bottom line is that recruiting in your own backyard is less competitive than recruiting against other schools in other states. It's a built-in advantage.

I'm not saying that Texas should be punished for having talent. I just don't think that this is the best way to examine a school's in-state recruiting. Some schools that aren't in talent filled states like Texas cannot fill their class with just in-state recruits if they want to be competitive. Furthermore, if you look at this list, you will see that only three of these teams are in BCS conferences. It's important to factor in the high level talent in the state.

For example, the state of Michigan only produced 7 four star players. The University of Michigan landed 4 of them and Michigan State landed 2. This means that Michigan took in 57% of the top in-state talent, while Michigan State took in 29%. Meanwhile, the state of Texas had 40 four or higher star players. The University of Texas landed 14 of them, which accounts to 35%. Texas A&M received the commitments of 8 of these players, amounting to 20%. When you look at these numbers, it becomes more clear that the numbers are deceiving. Texas did receive the commitments of 24 players from the state of Texas on the whole, which does represent a high percentage of in-state talent. To put that in perspective, Michigan received 9 commitments from in-state players out of their 25 man class.

It just goes to show you that the way you look at these numbers can change your perception of in-state recruiting dominance.

In the future, I plan on looking at these numbers further and possibly developing some metrics to evaluate these schools' recruiting better. I think it's important not just to look at stars, but also to look at in-state/out of state numbers to develop a more accurate assessment of a coaching staff's recruiting effectiveness. Additionally, I'm thinking about factoring in conferences. If I do evaluate the different schools, I will do it conference by conference.

Please Stop Campus Videos!

Hey college students, don't make campus videos. No really...don't make these parodies and don't write songs about your school. They're terrible and they embarrass you, but more importantly they embarrass your school and everyone associated with the school. They bring shame on you and your family. You don't believe me?

 Witness awful:

   

Yeah.

This is the worst campus video I've seen thus far, and there have been a lot. Wisconsin, Indiana, Florida, and of course, Notre Dame are amongst the victims of the campus videos. There's no point in trying to put together a huge production to make yourself look cool. You're not. Your rhymes aren't good. No good comes out of it besides looking like a complete douchebag. I'm not trying to be insulting here, I'm just telling you how it is.

Don't make these videos, unless your goal is to be mocked on the internet.

Big Two-little ten: Follow Up

I wanted to write a follow up to the post I wrote yesterday. I did a broad strokes overview of what is happening on the recruiting trail and how the recruiting profiles of the different Big Ten schools has changed. I thought it was worth it to take a deeper look because some people aren't ready to admit that we are headed towards a two horse Big Ten.

While it's one thing to recruit well, it's another to develop that talent. Schools like Wisconsin and Michigan State don't recruit the same level of talent that Michigan and Ohio State recruit, but they are successful in developing talent. However, if you're recruiting and developing your talent, you are going to win Big Ten Championships. This is what Michigan and Ohio State do. They would not have won 77 Big Ten Championships between the two schools if this were not the case.

Ohio State got 13 players in the 2012 Rivals Top 250. Michigan had 11. The other big midwestern school, Notre Dame, had 9 players in the Top 250. There were, by my count, 38 players from Big Ten states in the 250. For the other schools that don't have the national appeal of those three schools, when those three schools are getting that many players in the top 250, it is slim pickings. You see that in the results.

Michigan State had 1 player. Wisconsin had 2. Penn State had 1. Iowa had 3. Northwestern had 1.

To put that in perspective, the midwest had 39 players in the Top 250 in 2011, a year where Urban Meyer wasn't coaching and Brady Hoke was late to the game. The Spartans had 2 players, Wisconsin had 2, Penn State had 5, Iowa had 4, Illinois had 1, and Indiana had 1. There were more players who trickled down to these schools. Michigan only had 5 players in the Top 250 and Ohio State had 9 players. Notre Dame had 10. Both Michigan and Ohio State have increased their pursuit of top level talent since then.

If you look at 2013's Top 250, you can already see that. Michigan already has 11 players in the Top 250. Ohio State has 4. Notre Dame has 1. No other Big Ten team has landed a Top 250 prospect. There is more talent in the Big Ten states than in other years, but Ohio State and Michigan have already landed 13 of the 43 players. Furthermore, they're in good standing for a lot of the other players. Michigan could very well have the type of class that has enabled Alabama to compete for a national title on a year to year basis. It's going to be tough for the other schools to get those top guys.

The numbers suggest that the Big Two will be back. You look at the coaches on both sides and you see a track record of success. They're not just bringing in talent. They're going to develop them. The other schools are beginning to get squeezed as result. While in any given year, one of the little ten schools can challenge for the title, it's going to be much more difficult to compete on a consistent basis. We're closer to another Ten Year War than an open Big Ten.

The best will be the best.

A Return to a Two Team Big Ten?

With Michigan's success under Brady Hoke and Ohio State's hiring of Urban Meyer, there's a question of whether the Big Ten will return to the Big Two and the little rest of the Big Ten (since this number has changed from 8, to 9, to 10). In his first year as head coach of Michigan, Hoke led his team to an 11-2 record including a Sugar Bowl victory. He also had a top 10 recruiting class and is well on his way to another one this year. For Urban Meyer, the expectation of success seems inevitable. In his first month and a half, he rallied Ohio State to a top 5 recruiting class. The belief is that this dominance in recruiting will translate to the gridiron.

To start, it must be said that Michigan and Ohio State's recruiting has traditionally been the best in the Big Ten. Other schools have compiled some good classes, but they haven't been consistent. With Urban Meyer and Brady Hoke entering the fold, recruiting has become more cut throat. Their pursuit of top talent is limitless, and it's going to squeeze the number of top prospects that tend to trickle down to the rest of the Big Ten. The disparity between the two and the rest of the Big Ten should grow.

Part of the problem was that Michigan has not been as competitive these last few years. Furthermore, they weren't competing for the services of the same players. Rich Rodriguez had to find players that fit his offensive system. They were recruiting different players, and as a result, the two schools didn't hold each other accountable on the recruiting trail.

While Ohio State maintained its level of recruiting for the most part, Michigan's recruiting clearly wasn't as effective. Lloyd Carr was getting top 15 classes with the average stars in the mid to high 3s. The recruiting classes under Rich Rod dropped to the low 3s. Additionally, many of the players he recruited did not stay on campus or did not see the field.

The real beneficiary of this drop off was Michigan State. The Spartans capitalized at Michigan's expense, improving their average the mid to high 2-stars to the low 3-stars. At the end of the Lloyd Carr days, Michigan State was getting only one 4/5-star every year. In the last four years, Michigan State has gotten 3 or more.

It appears that things are changing with Hoke and Meyer in the mix. Beyond the fact that both schools had top 5 classes last year, it's impressive how these two have compiled talent against their competition.  Hoke has put an emphasis in getting the top players in the state of Michigan. Last year, he got 9 of the top 15 players in Michigan. Furthermore, he has already locked up 4 of the 6 players from Michigan in the early Rivals 250. He is winning a lot of head to head battles with Michigan State.

You can look at the success Urban Meyer had by looking at the players that he kept or flipped. He got Tommy Schutt, Armani Reeves, and Camren Williams to decommit from Penn State. He landed Se'Von Pittman from Michigan State, Kyle Dodson from Wisconsin, and Taylor Decker from Notre Dame. Additionally, he landed two five-star defensive ends in Noah Spence and Adolphus Washington. Not only is Urban Meyer bringing this talent to Ohio State, he is taking the talents directly away from some of their top competitors.

2013 is shaping up to be a similar story. Brady Hoke has already landed 11 players in the Rivals 250, including 6 players in the top 100. All of the players that Urban Meyer had landed are in the Rivals 250 including top 10 prospect, Cameron Burrows. No other Big Ten team has Rivals 250 commit. It's still early, but it goes to show that Hoke and Meyer will get their players and the rest of Big Ten will have to wait.

We'll need some time to see if the recruiting dominance will translate to the field. However, you can look at the records of Meyer and Hoke and anticipate that it will. This might not be a good thing for the other schools of the Big Ten, but a return to dominance for both of these schools on a national level could change the negative perception that the conference has developed in recent years.

As an alumnus of Michigan, I hope that this is the case.

Money Management for Futures Pros: Intro

So I was browsing through my Twitter timeline when this came up (H/T @KegsnEggs):

@4stillRunning David E. Wilson Just copped a new whip....cuz I'm caking up...check me out now pic.twitter.com/Dl5ogz61

  
The reason this bothers me is because I've seen this before: college players going pro and spending their money on every single thing they did not have as a kid. While these players are going to be paid a lot of money, they don't plan for the future and spend frivolously on luxury items like a flashy sports car. I don't have a problem with players buying things like this, but I do have a problem with players not taking care of their money.

That got me thinking: why don't universities do more to prepare athletes for handling money?

First let me acknowledge that I know that there are sports management programs, but the finance classes in those programs have more to do with formulas and things of that nature than practical principles of money management. They don't teach you about taxes. They don't mention how to handle hangers on. They don't talk about long term planning to have money for retirement or setting up a second career after a professional career in sports.

I absolutely hate hearing that athletes squandered the millions of dollars that they accrued during their career. It's so disappointing.

So why not prepare them for the real world? Over the coming weeks, I will come up with a proper curriculum.

On Recruiting Reaction and Rivalries

When Michigan gets commitments from recruits, I always like to see what the reaction is at the Michigan board. There's usual jubilation and what not. Equally interesting is seeing the reaction of rival schools' boards. It's funny because there's always a put down or a rationalization that goes with these commitments.

This weekend, Michigan got eight 4-star commitments, all of whom are in the Top 200 on Rivals.

That's the context. That's what inspired this post. Both the onslaught of commitments to Michigan this weekend as well as the reaction of the fans of other schools.

Where is your new bicycle?

Recruiting is like Christmas. No wait, it's like a birthday. When a player commits, it's like getting that big shiny 3 speed Schwinn Sting Ray. You're really happy about it. You want to show it off and ride around the block for all your friends to see. Your friends are jealous. They'll mask their jealousy by saying "I didn't want that bike anyway" or "I will still beat you in a race."

I think I illustrated the reactions of Buckeye and Spartan fans pretty well.

Buckeye fans are pretty arrogant (yeah, I know it's funny coming from a Michigan alum/fan) right now. They have raised their already high expectations after hiring Urban Meyer. Part of what contributed to that was the way Meyer ended his 2012 class. They think they should get nothing but the best both in recruiting and on the field. They expect Meyer to dominate Brady Hoke on the recruiting trail. They also are the first ones to point out that a lot of these commits did not have OSU offers.

Let's try and grapple with the situation here.

First off, it's early in the recruiting cycle. We're almost two months away from teams' Spring Games. Not all the offers have gone out yet. Coaches are still in the process of evaluating players and sending out offers. Both Michigan and Ohio State have cast out nets in the form of offers. Michigan's net has been a little bigger (86 vs 65) than Ohio State's net. Those nets have covered a lot of the same players, but also a lot of players who only hold offers from one of the schools.

The important thing is that these two schools aren't handing out prospects to any regular player. They're giving offers to the best players in the country. I guarantee you right now that if both programs fill out their classes with the players that they have already offered, both fanbases will be more than satisfied with their coach's job. You know, so long as their coach did better than the other coach.

The fact of the matter is that Michigan is closer to filling their class with the top guys that they offered at the moment than Ohio State. Their coach is doing better. However, Ohio State fans think their coach can do better. When you factor that in with the relatively low number of head to head battles, this weekend changed nothing in their heads.

Buckeye fans think Urban has a strong reputation on the recruiting trail

Buckeyes fans are both quick and right to say that Meyer is winning head to head battles for their commits. That's if your only qualifying issue is an offer from both schools. Michigan had offered all the guys to commit to Ohio State, but all those guys were considered heavy Ohio State leans to begin with. With a lesser depth of talent in Michigan, the Wolverines will have to look throughout the Midwest to find players, including Ohio. Ohio has the most talent in the Midwest, so there's enough available beyond what the Buckeyes need or want. Many of the Ohio guys that end up at Michigan grew up as Buckeye fans.

The fact of the matter is that when you're recruiting out of state, you're likely to face an uphill battle. You're likely going to have to turn someone's fandom. Of the three Ohio kids that have committed to Michigan, Taco Charlton and Jake Butt were both Ohio State fans. They were turned. Neither of them had offers from Ohio State. Both are in the top 200 on Rivals. While you can say that Ohio State wasn't interested or did not recruit them, you cannot deny the fact that Michigan got two good players.

Then you have Michigan State, Sparty in my part of the world.

They always have a chip on their shoulder. Who can blame them? They don't bring in the prospects that Michigan and Ohio State does. The school isn't as highly regarded as Michigan. The football program isn't as prestigious. The thing they have most going for them at the moment is the fact that they have had great success recently against Michigan.

They won't shut up about it, not that they should. You should hold recent success over your rival's head. However, they don't recognize the importance of having good recruiting classes. They say Michigan has had good classes yet Michigan State has still beaten them. Well, here's the thing; Michigan had an abnormally high rate of attrition for those classes. You had guys transferring and you had guys getting into trouble with the law.

Michigan players who didn't make it

Hoke has changed things up. He's not only recruiting kids who are highly regarded, but also kids of high character. These kids will stay in the program and there will be less attrition. This coaching staff is better than the previous staff. They teach their players football. They teach fundamentals. You'll see this on the field. I'm not saying that this guarantees Michigan victories over Michigan State, but it definitely makes a difference.

To go back to the back metaphor, if you have a better bike and you're equally skilled riders, you're more likely to win. It's as simple as that.

Conversely, because rivalries go both ways, Michigan State got an in-state 4-star linebacker that Michigan hadn't offered. Much of this might have to do with Michigan taking four players at the position in this past year's class, and therefore, have earned the right to be selective (he also doesn't fit the LB position of need, SAM, for Michigan, but we'll just keep it simple). There was also commentary that he wasn't good enough to earn an offer or that he was a MSU lean. Of course, Spartan fans had a milliad of excuses.

Without regards to the facts, both fanbases come off as petty. Michigan fans put their own spin on it, saying he wasn't good enough or he wasn't worth the effort. Michigan State fans should be happy for landing a good player. The reality is a combination of these two stories, but the two sides are only going propagate whatever is favorable to them.

***

These arguments that fanbases have resulting from commitments is just stupid. It's also what makes college football great. It's a year round cycle of celebration, hatred, schadenfreude, and bickering. Your team might be your colors, but your rivals bring out your worst colors. That's the point that I'm trying to get across.

No fanbase is innocent.